DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ok.. seems like a pretty simple question With a low that close, we're probably looking at 10:1 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM has a 981mb low over Newport... so it's a bit east of what I was looking at with the more coarse resolution maps. Wow. lol The nam is such a piece of junk. it does this with every other storm then gets slapped back to reality inside of 36. I'm sick and tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lol. all eyes on him and the plowmen in NYC. you should email him the nam clown maps.....he may crap himself and then call a press conference. lol..if you do it will cause a riot down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GC looks excellent Really?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The nam is such a piece of junk. it does this with every other storm then gets slapped back to reality inside of 36. I'm sick and tired of it. Whoa, you mean to tell me the NAM has done this before!?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The nam is such a piece of junk. it does this with every other storm then gets slapped back to reality inside of 36. I'm sick and tired of it. Yea, this has ACK written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The folks in W MA and NNE can whack it to this, until the globals bi** slap back to between ACK and the BM. Whistling past the graveyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well taking this run verbatim for my BY: Heavy snow as H7 low forms under us in synch with other centers. It comes so close we dry slot as temps go warmish (mid 30s) and I get some light rain. H7 low moves east with the rest of the system and it snows steadily again for several hours. This is verbatim....a good front end dump, taint mid storm followed by snow as the winds flip back more northerly. This evolution doesn't happen this way that often so I think the solution will not be this way but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 With a low that close, we're probably looking at 10:1 at best. yeap, sounds about right.. 12:1 was just what came to mind not a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS is undoubtedly going to supply us with the LP between ACK and the BM and a widespread swath of 5-10''. But for now, it's good to have the NAM and SREF on our sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Little teenie weenie over Ray Yeah. That lone purple area up by the MA/NH border is essentially directly over my head. I just looked at the QPF map on twisterdata. Wow. Seriously insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yea, this has ACK written all over it. I dunno... it all depends on how amped up that 500mb low is racing east. I think all the solutions are on the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The nam is such a piece of junk. it does this with every other storm then gets slapped back to reality inside of 36. I'm sick and tired of it. 21z Sref had a really nice look to them...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The nam is such a piece of junk. it does this with every other storm then gets slapped back to reality inside of 36. I'm sick and tired of it. is funny reading some of the posts on Henry facebook page.. they are going crazy over the NAM.. blizzard warnings and WS and the end of NYC as we know it.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM storm totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The nam is such a piece of junk. it does this with every other storm then gets slapped back to reality inside of 36. I'm sick and tired of it. response below Whoa, you mean to tell me the NAM has done this before!?!?!?! Nothing shocks me at this point. We're about to learn whether the theory all the model flip flops were blocking related vs it's a modeling/data issue. once again it's h42 where things really go bezerk compared to previous NAM runs. Might be right this time who knows. 42 seems to be the magic number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS is undoubtedly going to supply us with the LP between ACK and the BM and a widespread swath of 5-10''. But for now, it's good to have the NAM and SREF on our sides. The SREFs offer a nice compromise and are likely close to reality, but the NAM they are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Pretty much what I said five minutes ago. It's an incredible solution for this area and I'd need to see support to suspend my disbelief. I wouldn't bet against it at this point. i think it could tuck close to SW LI for a time then slide ENE and slow. i woud hope the low tracking from westerly , RI to plymouth is probably the NW extent of likely scenarios. I think i would be mostly snow out here. i would probably get absolutely hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM storm totals... Wow. If this were to verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yea, this has ACK written all over it. I hope it does track over ACK, As long as it keeps going NNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM would basically be a longer duration 12/9/05 up here, sensible wx wise, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is even MORE sick than the 700mb map. Certainly some thundersnow possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Southernmost maine gets railed like a cheap __________. Will be looking for that verbiage in the next GYX AFD..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS starts in???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS starts in???? 1/2 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wouldn't bet against it at this point. i think it could tuck close to SW LI for a time then slide ENE and slow. i woud hope the low tracking from westerly , RI to plymouth is probably the NW extent of likely scenarios. I think i would be mostly snow out here. I'll bet on every other piece of guidance....call me crazy, but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'll bet on every other piece of guidance....call me crazy, but..... i see why your saying that but reading john's post's earlier give it credence. BTW Ray i owe u 20$ At the gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow...Matt Noyes is really feeling it on this one! He has high confidence on a 12''+ snowstorm for much of interior SNE. Posted on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM overdoes it. Mid 30s all the way to the Berks in this storm? I think not. Let's get it within it's wheelhouse first......60 hours is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 1/2 hour. Thanks...off to bed...here's to the rest of the models being great (outside of ACK)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.