jrips27 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Pulled this from the mainland. From Larry Cosgrove Sizable Threat Exists For Ice, Snow Event Across Dixie, Eastern SeaboardECMWF Although you can make a case for a very cold but dry alignment across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. in the medium range, I note that all three of the ensemble packages and the operational ECMWF version show a favorable scenario for a "Miller B" secondary cyclogenesis event during a January 4 - 7 time frame. A 500MB shortwave moves out of the Southwest (the low currently taking aim at California), and begins to phase with the cAk vortex moving into Ontario. The phase is not so complete as to shear out the vorticity and precipitation array, but is strong enough to create an opportunity for deepening of the surface low as it tracks across E NC toward the MA Islands. As most of the equations and associated variants favor a very deep Arctic motherlode passing through the Great Lakes into New England, my suspicion is that the risk for an important ice and snow event is real, and somewhat weighted toward the Northeast east of the Appalachian Mountains. Bitter cold air will likely cover much of the nation east of the Continental Divide for about three days after this low pulls away toward Newfoundland. http://www.examiner....-at-7-00-p-m-ct Thought it was an interesting writeup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Looks like the euro is losing the idea of a storm next weekend. The low appears to get sheared out and ends up supressed but it looks like there is a 500 low coming across the southern jet setting up a possible storm in the timeframe Allen mentioned earlier today. Also like Allen said the pattern appears to be setting up nicely during that time. Edit: Nevermind, I was looking at the wrong time. Got the horse before the carraige on that one. Have not made it out to the time Allen was talking about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Pulled this from the mainland. From Larry Cosgrove Looks like the euro is losing the idea of a storm next weekend. The low appears to get sheared out and ends up supressed but it looks like there is a 500 low coming across the southern jet setting up a possible storm in the timeframe Allen mentioned earlier today. Also like Allen said the pattern appears to be setting up nicely during that time. Edit: Nevermind, I was looking at the wrong time. Got the horse before the carraige on that one. Have not made it out to the time Allen was talking about yet. 120 through 144 hrs looks to be a overrunning event. 850's split NC in half along the typical north of I-40 corridor with a weak wave traversing the state. I do not have access to the precip our in between panels, but the 24 hr surface reflections and temps look favorable for a mixed bag of wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Winter and overrunning gnerally make me nervous. Usually, that means somebody's mid-levels are just warm wnough to end up with ZR. Have y'all seen any indication of any sort of event, given then current setup...and yes I know it's way too early to say anything with remote certainty. Consider it WarGames training, if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 HAPPY NEW YEAR SE GANG!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yes!! Happy new year day folks. to 2011 !! HAPPY NEW YEAR SE GANG!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Winter and overrunning gnerally make me nervous. Usually, that means somebody's mid-levels are just warm wnough to end up with ZR. Have y'all seen any indication of any sort of event, given then current setup...and yes I know it's way too early to say anything with remote certainty. Consider it WarGames training, if you will. The 6z GFS is still hinting at something around 10-14th it has a low traveling across the GOM...but it's too suppressed verbatim. Good thing is though it's saying we have possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year guys. On way back from rainy Pigeon Forge. Thanks guys for all of you that make the forum great. It helps us to prepare trucks for the weather. Looking forward to some more in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Last night's Canadian is interesting for this weekend; also notice the low swinging through Nebraska. Not sure how that could play out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 A very Happy New Years to the SE Crew! Sure do wish it was last week about this time. We lost the last of our Snow in the yard last night very rapidly. Hope 2011 is as Wintry as 2010 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 happy new year to everyone! i appreciate this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 These two statements are from a main forum thread with regards to the upcoming pattern. Why are they not in a good spot? And I assume when he refers to "SE" he means the Carolinas/GA??? ...and I should add, as for this pattern, and anyone left of a RIC to PHL to IPT, if not NYC, we're not in a good spot. The next 10 - 15 days looks abysmal and any model that shows exciting promise outside of the true SE and NJ through New England should be viewed with considerable suspicion, and that's being generous to NJ/PHL... Shane, I agree and was going to post something longer on it. It's a cooler than normal pattern but not a good one for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year guys. On way back from rainy Pigeon Forge. Thanks guys for all of you that make the forum great. It helps us to prepare trucks for the weather. Looking forward to some more in the near future. I hate to steal a quote but I feel the same way. Thank all you SE folks for the great job you do on the weather and the advanced notice you give me. Thanks again and a SNOWY Great New Year to all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy new year everyone! Here's to a awesome 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. * UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING * A BROAD AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SOAKED PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RECENT SNOW AND RAINFALL HAVE KEPT THE SOILS WET IN THIS AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * SMALL...FLOOD-PRONE CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOTICE THE EFFECTS OF THIS RAINFALL. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION IN HILLY TERRAIN AND NEAR LOW-WATER CROSSINGS. Last Sat. was so much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 NAM continues to paint light amounts this side of the Apps. Got .002 last night. ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. * UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING * A BROAD AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SOAKED PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RECENT SNOW AND RAINFALL HAVE KEPT THE SOILS WET IN THIS AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * SMALL...FLOOD-PRONE CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOTICE THE EFFECTS OF THIS RAINFALL. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION IN HILLY TERRAIN AND NEAR LOW-WATER CROSSINGS. Last Sat. was so much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 NAM continues to paint light amounts this side of the Apps. Got .002 last night. exactly. All models continue to show the east side of the Apps getting about .10", but where I'm at usually its over done, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a trace event from this. All the dynamics are training right now and about to head northeast, bypassing the Carolinas, but giving the APPs and especially the west side from NW GA to Tenn a big rain event, which showed up well a few days ago. The longer range has some possibilities from dry supression to overrunning. Its very hard to get a real overrunning event in here, they used to be common. Its really the only way to get a good solid precip event in my neck of the woods I think, without an upper low taking the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 These two statements are from a main forum thread with regards to the upcoming pattern. Why are they not in a good spot? And I assume when he refers to "SE" he means the Carolinas/GA??? There's a long lasting argument of what the SE really means...IMO it's TN, NC, VA, SC, GA, FL, AL. I can only guess that he means it will go OTS off the NC coast and not come back to threaten the stated areas, NYC is a maybe, in his opinion...don't know the science behind it, and if that can change, though...I'll leave it for a met to answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year !!! May the new year bring you all happiness health and wealth, But most of all lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This may have been posted but here are the December climo stats: .CLIMATE... THE TOP 5 COLDEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER AT RDU/GSO ARE AS FOLLOWS: RDU: GSO: 1) 34.6F 1989 1) 31.3F 1935 2) 34.7F 1963 2) 32.3F 1963 3) 34.9F 2010 3) 32.6F 1989 4) 35.4F 2000 4) 33.0F 2000 5) 36.6F 1960 5) 33.1F 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The 12Z GFS has a strong 504 vortex coming down in Miller B like fashion later next week, with -15 at 850 into Tn and NC, with good upslope, probably very intense for a few hours, and another Blizzard for coastal New England. Highs Friday and Saturday would be below 32 for about ATL and points north. Another impressive cold airmass. The model may have this system too far north, so I'd keep an eye on that track, any further west or south would put more areas further south with a chance at snow, esp. on the wrap around side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Here in Kingsport there is a nice, steady rain falling. The mountains to our south are taking much of the moisture out of the equation. It's a good thing. There is a lot of snow up in the mountains of NE TN and NW NC, and the streams in those areas are partially frozen. After last summer, it's nice to see a steady rain. The CPC ensemble mean forecast (today only) for the NAO is for it to pop positive in the long run - may eventually fall but it's hard to tell w/ the graphic. The AO continues to stay negative w/ the PNA staying slightly negative. Does anyone know the status of the stratospheric warming event(possible) being mentioned earlier this week? The 12z GFS is pretty cold w/ an apparent blocky look throughout. It would be nice to get a split-flow out of that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 too bad its not last weekend or it'd be snowing again lol. very dark, cloudy foggy and rainy here today, but not as much in the gauge as i thought, about .25 so far. nice day to recover from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Trying to bring some returns over the area now... exactly. All models continue to show the east side of the Apps getting about .10", but where I'm at usually its over done, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a trace event from this. All the dynamics are training right now and about to head northeast, bypassing the Carolinas, but giving the APPs and especially the west side from NW GA to Tenn a big rain event, which showed up well a few days ago. The longer range has some possibilities from dry supression to overrunning. Its very hard to get a real overrunning event in here, they used to be common. Its really the only way to get a good solid precip event in my neck of the woods I think, without an upper low taking the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Moderate rain falling right now... looks like there is a lot to come! Just heard some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nice write-up by Typhoon Tip - on potential upcoming storms and the impact of the AO and NAO this winter season. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6882-winter-storm-threat-early-ideas/page__pid__209684#entry209684 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year to everyone. So, December looks like it comes in as the 2nd all time coldest December. February was the 5th all time coldest Feb. 3 snows over 10 inches in a year, several equally fun smaller snows, 40 inches of the snow for the season last season, 16.5 inches for the season so far and snow on the ground for days at a time. I seriously wondered whether I would see real winter again, but this has been above and beyond. Here's to more for everyone. Oh, for the fun of it, can we throw in one below zero arctic blast? I can't remember the last time it was below zero. I liked Foothill's post above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'm trying the Atlanta (TATL) TDWR radar, it's the first time I've seen it on GRLevel3 with rain and thunderstorms. You can see it here. http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_4.php Here's the FFC NEXRAD radar, you can compare the differences http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/ffc_284.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 It's crazy how this month looks to be setting up exactly like December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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