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January 2011

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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snowflake29684

snowflake29684

Posted
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Robert I sure hope this storm pans out for WNC adn WSC we both kinda got shaffted on the last storm look forward to blogging with you guys on this storm

I've noticed in the last 2 years of the outbreaks, the center of the high has settled on two consecutive nights, each outbreak, around eastern Ky, eastern TN, or western NC, which is a good spot for drainage in the western Piedmont, and excellent radiating conditions, so that probably explains why CLT has been colder many times when its not advective cold, as opposed to GSO and RDU areas.

During precip events, just being further south is why they're usually warmer than northern piedmont, since precip is the great equalizer and brings nearby areas down to about the same temperature, with similar wetbulbs. IE, no radiating conditions. Also, for example this Christmas storm there was a slight warm layer at 925 and the precip arrived very late there, and also was light. Contrast that with the mountains and I-40 where precip arrived early, and the axis of precip there was heavy, allowing a large region just to the north to lock in cold surface temps from the get go, and they were colder aloft, being further north and west. During last years Feb. big storm that dumped 2 feet in DC, many areas were 33 or 34 all day in GA, and the Carolinas, ATL GSP RDU CLT CAE TYS HKY INT GSO AHN all had about 33/34 , so thats an example of that. Hope that helps.

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DCMetroWinston

DCMetroWinston

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I've noticed in the last 2 years of the outbreaks, the center of the high has settled on two consecutive nights, each outbreak, around eastern Ky, eastern TN, or western NC, which is a good spot for drainage in the western Piedmont, and excellent radiating conditions, so that probably explains why CLT has been colder many times when its not advective cold, as opposed to GSO and RDU areas.

During precip events, just being further south is why they're usually warmer than northern piedmont, since precip is the great equalizer and brings nearby areas down to about the same temperature, with similar wetbulbs. IE, no radiating conditions. Also, for example this Christmas storm there was a slight warm layer at 925 and the precip arrived very late there, and also was light. Contrast that with the mountains and I-40 where precip arrived early, and the axis of precip there was heavy, allowing a large region just to the north to lock in cold surface temps from the get go, and they were colder aloft, being further north and west. During last years Feb. big storm that dumped 2 feet in DC, many areas were 33 or 34 all day in GA, and the Carolinas, ATL GSP RDU CLT CAE TYS HKY INT GSO AHN all had about 33/34 , so thats an example of that. Hope that helps.

Thank you so much. I am learning so much from you and everyone else here. I love to just sit and learn from you guys.

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wx4life

wx4life

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Good evening everyone new wennie to Americanwx followed this forum with the Christmas Day Storm was very impressed look forward to blogging with everyone with this next upcoming storm and the ones to follow very interested in going back to school to become a Met myself and this forum throughout the last storm only added fuel to that fire again I look forward to blogging with yall btw I am Alex....

Welcome Aboard!!That last storm was a pretty intense one to follow,in fact I actually had to take a little break from the board (obviously not a long one).I know you will enjoy it on here and the SE has some of the best Mets and Non Mets to help give info about things.Even the weenies are the best :thumbsup:

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snowflake29684

snowflake29684

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Yeah I agree the HCP was pretty bold with there statement reguarding another Gulf Storm Earlier today..

Well was just watching the local news and ole Skip Waters went an said there may be another winter storm for our area next Friday into Sat. Kinda bold to start that kinda talk this far out from the event, but thats Skip for ya.

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burgertime

burgertime

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The 0z gfs is showing a storm in the gulf at hr 192....ends up supressing the storm S and E but looks colder than the euro. Good thing is the euro and gfs are showing possibilities during this timeframe. Something to contiue to watch.

Yep this is what we want to see this far out, it's showing the pattern is most certainly there. Has my interest peaked but not going to waste any sleep over it until we're about 4 days away...oh what the hell I'm already loosing sleep over it now!guitar.gif

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rduwx

rduwx

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Yep this is what we want to see this far out, it's showing the pattern is most certainly there. Has my interest peaked but not going to waste any sleep over it until we're about 4 days away...oh what the hell I'm already loosing sleep over it now!guitar.gif

I know what you mean. I've finally caught up on my sleep from the last storm and ready to track another one. My wife thinks I'm crazy.

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snowflake29684

snowflake29684

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Yeah 192 out for the GFS is a good ways out you are right tho as far as both showing the Low in the same timeframe tho def something to keep a close eye on Can't wait to see what the 0z Euro is going to show after thelast storm I trust it alot more in the medium range than the GFS it suppressed the storm the last time in the medium range and ran it alot further north and we all know how that one ended up..

The 0z gfs is showing a storm in the gulf at hr 192....ends up supressing the storm S and E but looks colder than the euro. Good thing is the euro and gfs are showing possibilities during this timeframe. Something to contiue to watch.

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snowflake29684

snowflake29684

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Yeah the CMC showed the potential for a phase on its last run that would be nice.. and I def know what you mean about losing sleep over it always nice to know what is coming down the pipe before everyone else everyone here in SC tripped out when I told the snow on Christmas Day..

Yep this is what we want to see this far out, it's showing the pattern is most certainly there. Has my interest peaked but not going to waste any sleep over it until we're about 4 days away...oh what the hell I'm already loosing sleep over it now!guitar.gif

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DCMetroWinston

DCMetroWinston

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The 0z gfs is showing a storm in the gulf at hr 192....ends up supressing the storm S and E but looks colder than the euro. Good thing is the euro and gfs are showing possibilities during this timeframe. Something to contiue to watch.

at least suppression indicates that we will have ample cold pumping down.

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dwagner88

dwagner88

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Welcome Aboard!!That last storm was a pretty intense one to follow,in fact I actually had to take a little break from the board (obviously not a long one).I know you will enjoy it on here and the SE has some of the best Mets and Non Mets to help give info about things.Even the weenies are the best :thumbsup:

Me too. I stayed long enough to post my pics from the White Christmas, then I stayed away until this evening. I was exhausted after tracking that thing for 10 days. I really need to try to not get so wound up with this next storm, although Chattanooga is basically guaranteed to get a foot because I will be in Orlando that week.

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snowflake29684

snowflake29684

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Yeah I am planning on stayingup myself to see the Euro just wondering comparing it to the 0z GFS where does it have the placement of the low on the Euro more north or south or east or west I know with the last storm it was a few hours behind what the GFS showed until the last couple of day any coments...

Me too. I stayed long enough to post my pics from the White Christmas, then I stayed away until this evening. I was exhausted after tracking that thing for 10 days. I really need to try to not get so wound up with this next storm, although Chattanooga is basically guaranteed to get a foot because I will be in Orlando that week.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

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Regardless of whether this next storm is a hit or miss, I do like the set-up going into January. I feel a little more confident that it will not be a torch month and it promises to provide plenty of action. I agree with the previous poster about the GFS. Right now, we want it to show supperssion. We have come to realize that it has a medium range bias of keeping these systems too far south.

It will be interesting to track this one through the up-coming week. Better get some rest now. I have a strong feeling there will be some late night model watching as we get closer. Oh, by the way........Happy New Year to all the SE folks.

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snowflake29684

snowflake29684

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Happy New Year to you as well and I feel you on the model watching I see alot of late nights in alot of SE folks future LOL!! At least I how so!!

Regardless of whether this next storm is a hit or miss, I do like the set-up going into January. I feel a little more confident that it will not be a torch month and it promises to provide plenty of action. I agree with the previous poster about the GFS. Right now, we want it to show supperssion. We have come to realize that it has a medium range bias of keeping these systems too far south.

It will be interesting to track this one through the up-coming week. Better get some rest now. I have a strong feeling there will be some late night model watching as we get closer. Oh, by the way........Happy New Year to all the SE folks.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

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The 0z euro has a 1000mb low on the the on the Ala/Ga line at hr 198. I would like to see the temps colder but it is colder than 12z. I was up so I thought I would atleast check and make sure the euro has the storm. Good night.

A lot of spread in the Euro ensembles after 168 hours, the Op is a lot deeper than the mean along about the time it has the storm. So not too interested yet.

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