Novtorcher Disco Thread

[vortex95]

On 11/1/2026 at 7:31 AM, UnitedWx said:

For sure. The YouTube pirates are at it in full force. Funny how they'll slide in late in a video how a vortex split could mean absolutely nothing to us... after sensationally leading with it as fact 

And this micromanaging of the PV.  Our POR is not that long, and the degree of attention we have given it in the last 20 years or so?  Some just are making a living taking about the PV and every litte nuance and idiosyncrasy.  It is excessive.  There is more to the wx and pattern than the PV, and just b/c does something that has not been seen before in the POR does not necessarily mean it will have *any* noticeable on sensible wx outside the norm.

It's really more about content now for many on social media to feed the daily media "beast" than practical info one can use for forecasting IMHO.  They know by promoting such, they can get media interviews and the like, for 15 sec of "fame."
 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Huh?  There have been 4 very strong El Nino prior to this one since 1950.  And everything going on so far this cool season has lined up well w/ what to expect.  Just b/c the pattern in the NEUS is "boring" and warm?  @CoastalWxneeds to set aside his personal predilections about what HE wants for wx!   Do I have to bring up the singles/doubles and home run analogy again?

And one can slice and dice down super local and find things that have not happened before given the sheer amounts of wx parameters to use and climate locations out there.  That's micromanaging to find content to hype.  What matters is the large-scale mean.

I’ve been saying this for quite some time. I don’t buy into the nonsense hype of “oh this never happened before” etc etc….thats total BS.  Our record keeping is so dam small…it’s bazaar and comical to think that something hasn’t happened before, just because our 150 years of records may not show it.  There is nothing new under the sun…it’s just that we may never have seen it, because we only live a short time, and records only go back a short time.  
 

But the hyper’s and doomsday’ers love them some recognition.  It’s funny really. 

[vortex95]

Not too long ago, a video clip "suggest for you" popped up my X feed.  It is brief segment from Fox Weather, but it could have been any major media outlet.  What is shown exemplifies how wx is pushed and micromanaged these days, and things like minimal risk are scrutinized to the max.  In this case, a NHC Tropical Wx Outlook for a newly highlighted low prob area for TC development.  This is from 6/27/26.

First the actual outlook:

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off of the southeastern coast of the U. S.:
A low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the southeastern  coast of the United States along the western end of a frontal
system early next week. Slow development of this system will be  possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 

Concise and to the point.
 

Now take a look at the short Fox Wx segment concerning it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzkWpIth-Po
 

Breaking news for an NHC outlook that is 0/20??  Really?  This is what constitutes

'breaking news' these days?  Talk about scrapping the bottom of the barrel for

content!

The amount of time just spent on such low potential area and not in short range here 

is a lot, more than is necessary really.  And at the end of the segment, the grease pan

analogy.  Huh?
 

If the probability were moderate-high, esp. in the next 2 days, that certainty 

warrants a segment and discussion, but this?  It is more filler than anything.  A 

quick mention of this potential is fine for a wx segment, but surely there were

more pressing wx concerns and short-term risks to talk about?

In this case, there was.  Here is the DY1 SWO for 6/27.  A lot of sig svr tstm risk!
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day1otlk_20260627_1200.html
 

And this is what happened for svr wx.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/260627_rpts.html
 

Not every little tiny risk/threat has to be mentioned, hyped, or picked apart to make it
sound more important than it really is!
 

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ve been saying this for quite some time. I don’t buy into the nonsense hype of “oh this never happened before” etc etc….thats total BS.  Our record keeping is so dam small…it’s bazaar and comical to think that something hasn’t happened before, just because our 150 years of records may not show it.  There is nothing new under the sun…it’s just that we may never have seen it, because we only live a short time, and records only go back a short time.  
 

But the hyper’s and doomsday’ers love them some recognition.  It’s funny really. 

A lot of things claim that have never happened before, HAVE!  Yes, we use the continuous POR from climo sites, but we do have records prior to, say 1872, for BOS when the official climate record begins.  And some climate site are quite short, like IAD, which began in 1960.  CAR starts in 1939.

And you can take it one step further.  I've seen statements prior about dozens of sites in TX have their warmest month or highest temp, and I looked and the long-term climate sites like DFW or HOU did not.  Well, that stat came from all the new AWOS METAR sites installed since 2001 in the state, and there have been well over 100 and still sites are been added to this day, so you have a POR 25 years or less for all these sites, so of course records are broken easier for not so extreme temps!  But that part of it is left out of the narrative!  And this is the case for a lot of the U.S.  Over 1000 AWOS sites installed starting in the early 90s for many states.  And add in all the state mesonet networks now.  OK was the first, and many have followed.  And for rainfall, the CoCoRaHS network, which was not a thing until 1998.

[dendrite]

RONI is in line historically, but with the background Pacific state we’re still pushing the limits magnitude wise. I suppose we don’t know what was happening when Erik the Red was frolicking through southern Greenland. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

RONI is in line historically, but with the background Pacific state we’re still pushing the limits magnitude wise. I suppose we don’t know what was happening when Erik the Red was frolicking through southern Greenland. 

Yes, Erik The Red…precisely.  And wasn’t his son Lief Erickson?  

[JACKASS]

On 6/29/2026 at 5:06 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

My favorite pre winter prediction  is when someone predicts there will be a major snowstorm in February...

Who will be the first this year?

Poll?

[Brewbeer]

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

Poll

Glorious looking forecast tomorrow

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

Who will be the first this year?

Poll?

...so many contenders...lol....

 

[Torch Tiger]

 

[Torch Tiger]

:x banned

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The iPhone weather app says rain Thursday -> Tuesday,  

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The iPhone weather app says rain Thursday -> Tuesday,  

Yup…same here. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Yuck. I’ll miss the 3k

 

5 hours ago, dryslot said:

RIP Nam.

 

[ineedsnow]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The iPhone weather app says rain Thursday -> Tuesday,  

went for a random drive today.. ended up in Greenfield..I was surprised at how low the CT river was. also ate at village pizza in Greenfield.. beautiful day out. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

A lot of things claim that have never happened before, HAVE!  Yes, we use the continuous POR from climo sites, but we do have records prior to, say 1872, for BOS when the official climate record begins.  And some climate site are quite short, like IAD, which began in 1960.  CAR starts in 1939.

And you can take it one step further.  I've seen statements prior about dozens of sites in TX have their warmest month or highest temp, and I looked and the long-term climate sites like DFW or HOU did not.  Well, that stat came from all the new AWOS METAR sites installed since 2001 in the state, and there have been well over 100 and still sites are been added to this day, so you have a POR 25 years or less for all these sites, so of course records are broken easier for not so extreme temps!  But that part of it is left out of the narrative!  And this is the case for a lot of the U.S.  Over 1000 AWOS sites installed starting in the early 90s for many states.  And add in all the state mesonet networks now.  OK was the first, and many have followed.  And for rainfall, the CoCoRaHS network, which was not a thing until 1998.

Vaguely related....I was cheering on a family member at the NYC marathon yesterday when I stumbled upon the Central Park weather instrument station.  They are really boxed in by thick trees and shrubbery.  Sketchy at best.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

went for a random drive today.. ended up in Greenfield..I was surprised at how low the CT river was. also ate at village pizza in Greenfield.. beautiful day out. 

Any nudity ?

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any nudity ?

  

forest fire in Monson.. 

 

https://x.com/WWLP22News/status/2117425576839459144

[ineedsnow]

https://x.com/Nam3kmModel/status/2117385020021313904

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

  

forest fire in Monson.. 

 

https://x.com/WWLP22News/status/2117425576839459144

The entire region is on fire .

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The iPhone weather app says rain Thursday -> Tuesday,  

Weather underground pretty much Friday - Saturday. 50s and 30s there on after. I'd take that in a heartbeat. 

 

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Huh?  There have been 4 very strong El Nino prior to this one since 1950.  And everything going on so far this cool season has lined up well w/ what to expect.  Just b/c the pattern in the NEUS is "boring" and warm?  @CoastalWxneeds to set aside his personal predilections about what HE wants for wx!   Do I have to bring up the singles/doubles and home run analogy again?

And one can slice and dice down super local and find things that have not happened before given the sheer amounts of wx parameters to use and climate locations out there.  That's micromanaging to find content to hype.  What matters is the large-scale mean.

Meaning all the numbers are stuff we haven’t seen before. This Nino is a beast. At least the desert SW is getting rain. Maybe too much lol.

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

RONI is in line historically, but with the background Pacific state we’re still pushing the limits magnitude wise. I suppose we don’t know what was happening when Erik the Red was frolicking through southern Greenland. 

What about Jimmy the Greek?

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

What about Jimmy the Greek?

Kevin the Terrible?

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

went for a random drive today.. ended up in Greenfield..I was surprised at how low the CT river was. also ate at village pizza in Greenfield.. beautiful day out. 

It’s been really dry upstream of there. We need some rain. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

went for a random drive today.. ended up in Greenfield..I was surprised at how low the CT river was. also ate at village pizza in Greenfield.. beautiful day out. 

The Connecticut river, where it meets the Deerfield in Turners Falls, is pretty much as low as I’ve ever seen it.

Have lunch at the Wagon Wheel on Rt 2 sometime. Good comfort food. 

[WxWatcher007]

Far more appropriate  

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

Best nino yet

[Torch Tiger]

Wish we could get +10 in a few of those enso regions 

[H2Otown_WX]

Screw it, let's go for goose egg seasonal totals at BDL, PVD, and BOS