Major Hurricane Isaias

[jm1220]

What was expected ended up happening just a few hours late, which NHC mentioned as a risk for more intense landfall. My guess is a low end Cat 2 verified in the end. We’ll see in the AM how the damage looks. The surge I’m sure was severe but may have missed Destin just to the east so maybe a slight “win” there. 

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
Isaias made landfall as a 90-kt hurricane at 0130 UTC near Destin,
Florida. Since that time, the radar structure of the storm has
continued to degrade as strong vertical wind shear disrupts the
circulation. However, Eglin AFB (KEVX) radar data and surface
observations indicate damaging, gusty winds are persisting in the
residual northern eyewall and in a band wrapping around the western
side of the circulation. Now that the system is farther inland and
losing organization, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for
this advisory.
 
Isaias is rapidly losing tropical characteristics, and it is 
forecast to become post-tropical within the next 12 h while it 
continues moving quickly northward through Alabama. Although the 
sustained surface winds associated with Isaias will quickly weaken 
now that the storm is inland, damaging wind gusts associated with 
the system are expected to extend well inland through Saturday, 
especially in areas of higher terrain. Because of this, the gust 
factors in the forecast have been slightly increased during the 
first 24 h. A turn toward the northeast is forecast later this 
weekend, bringing the center of the system into the Tennessee Valley 
before it dissipates.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from Dauphin Island,
Alabama, to Suwannee, Florida where a Storm Surge Warning remains in
effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.
 
2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected over portions of the Florida
Panhandle and southern Alabama where a Hurricane Warning remains in
effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out
the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages.
 
3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the
southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the
southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern
Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor
items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power
outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees.
 
4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S.
Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend.
Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river
flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the
Southern Appalachians.
 
5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest
risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading
north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 30.8N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 32.7N  86.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  11/0000Z 34.7N  86.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  11/1200Z 36.9N  84.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z 39.0N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[WxWatcher007]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Strong forecast.

https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/hurricane-isaias-landfall-accurately-forecast/

 

Hurricane Isaias Landfall Accurately Forecast

Timing Slightly too Slow

The center of the rapidly degrading eye of Hurricane Isaias crossed the coast near Destin, FL with 105MPH maximum sustained winds at about 930PM EDT. 

 

 

This was precisely as forecast in the Final Call issued this afternoon in terms of landfall locale and intensity, but the timing was about 1.5 hours faster than 11PM EDT forecast. Although the landfall intensity needed to be adjusted upwards slightly in the Final Call issued earlier today, the Destin, FL locale was consistent since First Call on Wednesday.

 

 

 

Final Grade: A

 

[Interstate]

50 minutes ago, OHweather said:

By definition the “maximum sustained wind” is going to occur over a very small area and is always going to be over water. This table literally proves nothing. 

But it does... Since the NHC puts out the advisories the media outlets run with them... This what the general public is expecting... and when it doesn't happen... it gives the general public a false sense of security with the next storm.

[SnowenOutThere]

Notice how the people now agitating the thread with anti-hurricane center posts are the same ones who were absent till landfall. They’re not worth the time to debunk. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Interstate said:

But it does... Since the NHC puts out the advisories the media outlets run with them... This what the general public is expecting... and when it doesn't happen... it gives the general public a false sense of security with the next storm.

No, the risk is not properly conveying an adequate sense of urgency concerning a landfalling hurricane. No one but we weather dorks cares if max sustained winds occur a mile off of the beaches, but the much larger deal is if significantly higher winds and surge than anticipated were to occur.

[Interstate]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Notice how the people now agitating the thread with anti-hurricane center posts are the same ones who were absent till landfall. They’re not worth the time to debunk. 

I have been here the whole time.

[Vicious Fluid]

 Rain is picking up here a little. Watching radar closely because I'm sure there's plenty of tornado potential heading this way. We're still a little ways out from the remnants of the first feeder band that came ashore, but that thing had some nasty vorticities in it, and there's plenty of cold air aloft for mixing. Granted I'm sure we won't be seeing insane wind maxima, but there should be enough to see some fallen trees tomorrow AM. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Floydbuster]

 

[GaWx]

What was the actual lowest SLP at landfall ?

-Lowest Destin SLP was at 8:20PM CDT per this link at ~982 mb (28.99” altimeter setting):

-As this shows, winds were NNE at landfall time at Destin. That says landfall was just E of Destin.

-Per Dr. Knabb per Cantore’s report of winds shifting to S off the Gulf at Miramar Beach before and during landfall time says landfall was just W of Miramar Beach.

-There are 8 miles between those 2 locales. Thus, a good estimate is that landfall was 4 miles E of Destin.

-How much lower than Destin’s 982 mb would SLP be 4 miles to the E? Anyone have a guess as to the gradient over those 4 miles W of the center?

[cardinalland]

At the risk of contributing further to a pointless argument:

Maximum sustained winds should be the most intense (sustained) winds measured anywhere in the hurricane. The strongest winds are probably going to be offshore or right on the beach. What are the odds that there's an anemometer at that exact location? Then, there's the issue that the power could be out when the highest winds hit, and of course, winds of this intensity aren't exactly gentle to meteorological equipment.

The maximum sustained winds I've seen recorded with this storm on land is 92.8 mph, which is 88% of NHC's max sustained winds at landfall and is nearly Category 2 strength. That's about as good as you're gonna get since we don't have recon over land to drop a sonde over the exact point with the most intense winds.

Anyways, I'm now seeing nearly 700k customers without power in the region, I hope the recovery goes smoothly

[cardinalland]

In other news, 2026 has now surpassed 1983. Now, 2026 is the season that has produced the second least ACE in the satellite era. We'll see if that holds or if some late season storm ups the ACE further. In an interesting parallel, the EPAC is to date at its second highest ACE recorded in the season, but it should soon reach #1.

[Interstate]

I am with Coach... weakest major hurricane to hit the US. Yes the name will not be removed from the cycle.

[GaWx]

Per this chaser who was right in the eye, the lowest SLP was 976.2 mb:

https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/2108736015250702614?

[Scott747]

21 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I am with Coach... weakest major hurricane to hit the US. Yes the name will not be removed from the cycle.

It didn't make landfall as a major.

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

It didn't make landfall as a major.

BS and prove it... give me one reporting station on land that had major sustain wind speed.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

BS and prove it... give me one reporting station on land that had major sustain wind speed.

NHC had it at 105mph when it came ashore, so it wasn't major. 

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NHC had it at 105mph when it came ashore, so it wasn't major. 

Okay.. .give me 1 land report of 105 MPH sustained winds???  You will not even come close.

[Scott747]

13 minutes ago, Interstate said:

BS and prove it... give me one reporting station on land that had major sustain wind speed.

I was on your side earlier with some of the points you were trying to make. Now you're just becoming annoying.

I repeat. It didn't make landfall as a major hurricane.

[cptcatz]

5 hours ago, Interstate said:

Okay.. .give me 1 land report of 105 MPH sustained winds???  You will not even come close.

It's an estimate of the highest winds over water as it makes landfall. What part of that can't you comprehend?

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

WxFlow stations overreport winds

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty solid gusts recorded with this one. 118, 116, 114, 110 were the highest I’ve seen and most of those were from the western edge of the degrading eyewall! Pensacola through Milton to Jay seem to have had a sting jet because they were not in the actual eyewall or at best on the edge and that area all saw gusts over 110. I see the usual discord of land obs not matching operational intensity (not worth arguing with those people after every storm) but this system produced widespread gusts over 100 and several recorded gusts over major hurricane strength. Also, that sustained wind of 92 being recorded is impressive. Overall, Kind of in line with exactly what was forecast…. As for LF pressure as @GaWx shows this thing was rapidly filling in as the actual center crossed the coast. As all of the eyewall was already ashore I don’t think it matters as much here but when the actual center crossed the coast as it was well behind the main convection i doubt Winds over 100 were occurring.

We’ll see what surge looks like but the worst is going to be between Destin and Panama City. Panama City measuring 5.6 feet makes me worried there are going to be some 7-9’ areas to the west. Daylight will reveal that.

Overall this storm was exceptionally well-forecast by NHC and with a challenging forecast, pretty early on they were advertising a dangerous hurricane at landfall. If anyone doesn’t think seeing wind gusts over 100 with some major gusts over 110 also actually recorded qualifies as a “dangerous” hurricane, not much else to say here. 

[suzook]

Thankfully here in south ATL the winds were not a factor at all. Picked up 3.5 inches of rain so far.

[Windspeed]

It seems like we always have to beat it into people's skulls during landfalls. It's the maximum sustained winds possible as an estimate over water for a reason. It's a marine storm before it is a land storm, and advisories have to account for what is occurring in real time over the ocean surface for any poor ships/souls that might find themselves in the worst scenario. But due to frictional convergence / drag, you will almost never see those sustained winds over land unless you have a super intense eyewall with embedded multiple mesos rotating around that overcome frictional forces with insane ground level velocities. As a general rule, the highest wind reports over land are always in gusts due to this process. You might get those highest sustained winds right on the immediate beach/shoreline perpendicular to the onshore motion of the inner edge of the eyewall, but the equipment would need to be in the right place at the right time and that is exceedingly difficult placement and timing to pull off. Interestingly, and as no surprise, the instrument anemometers that have been positioned in the right place and at the right time during past landfalls that recorded sustained winds near maximum have generally failed during that event.

I also need to add that the reason most immediate advisory packages don't rapidly ramp down maximum sustained winds after landfall is twofold: 1) part of the eyewall or outer eyewall may still be over water, 2) any large estuaries even after landfall may still experience maximum winds. Once the entire circulation is inland, subsequent advisory packages tend to ramp down quickly.

[DDweatherman]

This one certainly came into the coast stronger than a lot of folks expected, and will still have some some substantial damage across the FL coast (mainly surge impacts as well as wind damage in localized areas).

 

The part of this storm that busted completely is the tornado risk…there were a lot of honks this would have quite a few spin ups associated with the storm…reports are basically nonexistent.

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, Interstate said:

Okay.. .give me 1 land report of 105 MPH sustained winds???  You will not even come close.

Give it up. Stop clogging this thread.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

This one certainly came into the coast stronger than a lot of folks expected, and will still have some some substantial damage across the FL coast (mainly surge impacts as well as wind damage in localized areas).

 

The part of this storm that busted completely is the tornado risk…there were a lot of honks this would have quite a few spin ups associated with the storm…reports are basically nonexistent.

I am a little surprised by that and we’ll see what today brings, but that would obviously be a welcome development if that busted. 

[OHweather]

8 hours ago, Interstate said:

Okay.. .give me 1 land report of 105 MPH sustained winds???  You will not even come close.

What if…and hear me out on this…the highest sustained winds were over water at the time of landfall?