October 2026

[MJO812]

Halloween should be cool not mild. Fuck El Ninos.

[forkyfork]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Halloween should be cool not mild. Fuck El Ninos.

i need it to be warm for my el nino costume

[MarcmmKU]

The season of disgusting dews is finally over. Hopefully no more AC till april

[Cfa]

49/40 here. I have nothing nice to say.

[Keith Central PA]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Halloween should be cool not mild. Fuck El Ninos.

Its 2 weeks away lol. Take it one day at a time buddy ..its 10/17

[qg_omega]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Halloween should be cool not mild. Fuck El Ninos.

It’s freezing out

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

It’s freezing out

dont disrupt narratives. Bluewave made a BN sept sound like it was a top 10 for warmth. now they are making what looks to be a +1 Oct sound like a sea of record warmth.

there are lots of narratives on this website: manufacturing a snowstorm, thunderstorms that would make Dorothy blush, endless warmth, bomb cyclone, polar vortex like we have never seen, manufactured droughts, brush fires made to sound like Yosemite is on fire…

 

the truth is the weather is going to be what it’s going to be. And if you live in NY Metro, its never going to be as extreme as posters would like due to that large ocean next to us and lack of a large mountain chain in a 100 mile radius combined with sea level elevation and a naturally temperate mid atlantic climate.

you want a tornado ripping downtown, move to St Louis. you want major hurricanes that destroy normal life for months Tampa. you want a large city with a real winter Chicago. you want endless record Warmth followed by a blizzard in October…Denver or Salt Lake. 

 

youre not getting any of that in Queens despite attempts to manufacture it

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

dont disrupt narratives. Bluewave made a BN sept sound like it was a top 10 for warmth. now they are making what looks to be a +1 Oct sound like a sea of record warmth.

This has been one of the warmest first half's of fall for the entire CONUS. Weather and climate statistics are just pure numbers which didn’t contain any agendas. Most of the area finished up warmer than average in September against the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals.

So even relatively low departures can still be ranked fairly high. The smaller warm departures here still rank as the 13th to 15th warmest September 1st to October 15th. This is due to September and October being two of the fastest warming months near 1° per decade since the 1980s.

I get it that since this warming has become so thoroughly normalized, most people including yourself probably don’t recognize a warm pattern anymore unless it’s a top 5 or a top 10.

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Halloween should be cool not mild. Fuck El Ninos.

 

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i need it to be warm for my el nino costume

Don’t worry forky, you’ll be fine. Although we might have to start a ‘go fund me’ for bail. As always …..

 

[the_other_guy]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of the warmest first half's of fall for the entire CONUS. Weather and climate statistics are just pure numbers which didn’t contain any agendas. Most of the area finished up warmer than average in September against the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals.

So even relatively low departures can still be ranked fairly high. The smaller warm departures here still rank as the 13th to 15th warmest September 1st to October 15th. This is due to September and October being two of the fastest warming months near 1° per decade since the 1980s.

I get it that since this warming has become so thoroughly normalized, most people including yourself probably don’t recognize a warm pattern anymore unless it’s a top 5 or a top 10.

 

what that map actually tells you is that the central part of a country is getting record warmth from this super Niño. not us. and if you’ve been paying attention over the last several months, we’re gonna ride that into winter.

 

See that big red blob? that was us in 2015. not this year. 

 

that also tells you that you’re probably not gonna get a 30 inch snowstorm to save your season so you better have a few smaller events

[IrishRob17]

51 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

dont disrupt narratives. Bluewave made a BN sept sound like it was a top 10 for warmth. now they are making what looks to be a +1 Oct sound like a sea of record warmth.

there are lots of narratives on this website: manufacturing a snowstorm, thunderstorms that would make Dorothy blush, endless warmth, bomb cyclone, polar vortex like we have never seen, manufactured droughts, brush fires made to sound like Yosemite is on fire…

 

the truth is the weather is going to be what it’s going to be. And if you live in NY Metro, its never going to be as extreme as posters would like due to that large ocean next to us and lack of a large mountain chain in a 100 mile radius combined with sea level elevation and a naturally temperate mid atlantic climate.

you want a tornado ripping downtown, move to St Louis. you want major hurricanes that destroy normal life for months Tampa. you want a large city with a real winter Chicago. you want endless record Warmth followed by a blizzard in October…Denver or Salt Lake. 

 

youre not getting any of that in Queens despite attempts to manufacture it

I see what you did, the nothing to see here narrative .

[the_other_guy]

32 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I see what you did, the nothing to see here narrative .

youre damn straight. theres been absolutely nothing to see here thus far this fall. absolutely nothing like 2015 thus far

[MJO812]

Pumpkin Picking right now with my son and wife in Freehold NJ

 

 

 

50 degrees 

[Rjay]

30 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

youre damn straight. theres been absolutely nothing to see here thus far this fall. absolutely nothing like 2015 thus far

But you don't find it interesting that a top 15 warmest fall (so far) is not even notable to most anymore?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

youre damn straight. theres been absolutely nothing to see here thus far this fall. absolutely nothing like 2015 thus far

Clearly you do not live on or near the ocean. Allot to see there. Say goodbye to highway 12 on outer banks. I’ll take pics and post from smith point this week of a beach completely obliterated. And this is only the beginning of super charged southern stream storm loaded winter. So imby yourself away


.

[steve392]

55 degrees out with a decent wind out if the nnw.  With all this weight loss, even with a hoodie I'm freezing!  Not used to be cold. 

[FPizz]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Clearly you do not live on or near the ocean. Allot to see there. Say goodbye to highway 12 on outer banks. I’ll take pics and post from smith point this week of a beach completely obliterated. And this is only the beginning of super charged southern stream storm loaded winter. So imby yourself away


.

How many times in different locations all up and the outer banks has that road been destroyed?  Lots.  Its a barrier island in some places only yards wide.  This isnt something new happening.  It happens yearly.  For every house you see destroyed, probably 10 more are being built.  Ive been going there for decades and in many of these places homes should never have been build at all.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

How many times in different locations all up and the outer banks has that road been destroyed?  Lots.  Its a barrier island in some places only yards wide.  This isnt something new happening.  It happens yearly.  For every house you see destroyed, probably 10 more are being built.  Ive been going there for decades and in many of these places homes should never have been build at all.

Hmmmm mandatory evacuations no big deal right?


I agree, most of those homes never should have been built. But here we are. It doesn’t take away from the severity of the event unfolding or its impact. This is the second and likely far most impactful nor’easter of the season and it’s mid October.

[IrishRob17]

30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

But you don't find it interesting that a top 15 warmest fall (so far) is not even notable to most anymore?

I find it interesting he doesn't acknowledge his hypocrisy. 

[NEG NAO]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Halloween should be cool not mild. Fuck El Ninos.

First of all - El Nino has little to do with warm Halloween vs. cool Halloween. An example would be Halloween 2024 which  had highs in the 80's here and it was a neutral Enso - going into a weak La Nina. Secondly I don't understand your need to use vulgar language on here.........

 

[Brian5671]

49 here-finally clearing out.   Guessing we get a good frost here with a freeze warning just to my north.

[donsutherland1]

Much cooler air moved into the region late last night. As a result, the New York City area is experiencing its coolest weekend so far this fall.

Tomorrow will get off to a very chilly start. Many outlying areas will see frost. There is even a chance that the temperature could dip just below 40° in Central Park. The last time that happened this early in the season was during the 2015 El Niño. November 2015 was then much warmer than normal and some of the long-range guidance suggests that Pacific Air could begin to dominate much of the North American continent to start November. 

Temperatures will moderate next week with highs reaching 60° or somewhat above Tuesday through Friday. There remains uncertainty concerning rainfall potential.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -28.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.489 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.