October 2026

[donsutherland1]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Insane 

Anchorage also received 0.1" snow on October 1. That was its first measurable snowfall on record of October 1.

[guinness77]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wished we lived there

I mean…you could 

I was born in Fairbanks. 

[SACRUS]

Periods of light rain moving through.

 

[MJO812]

Nice coastal storms on the gfs

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice coastal storms on the gfs

A week out

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

A week out

The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.

[MANDA]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter.  Almost seems like a given at this point.  Storminess will abound.  Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air.  Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line.

I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

[TriPol]

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter.  Almost seems like a given at this point.  Storminess will abound.  Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air.  Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line.

I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

With that kind of an active STJ, this should be a hell of a winter/early spring for severe storms in the south.

[Stormlover74]

Euro dry as a bone for next 10 days

[qg_omega]

Drought pattern emerging

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro dry as a bone for next 10 days

Yep, my 10 day looks awesome.  Most days near 70 with sun and cool nights.  Foliage is going to start bursting.  Perfect fall weather.

[bluewave]

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

Always searching for warmth and a strong SE ridge…

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Always searching for warmth and a strong SE ridge…

No need to search very far since it has been the dominant pattern since March.

[MJO812]

Raining. 56 here.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Drought pattern emerging

No way

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

With possible rain at times

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

No way

Warm but definitely not dry. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. The mild weather will be short-lived, as much cooler air will poor into the region afterward. 

In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs.

The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -30.49 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.264 today. 

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Rain wise
 

Year	Total precipitation
1960	46.39"
1961	39.32"
1962	37.15"
1963	34.28"
1964	32.99"
1965	26.09"
1966	39.90"
1967	49.12"
1968	43.57"
1969	48.54"

 

 

top 15 driest years

 

Rank	Year	Annual precipitation
1	1965	26.09"
2	1964	32.99"
3	1910	33.72"
4	1935	33.85"
5	1963	34.38"
6	1970	35.29"
7	1885	35.37"
7	1895	35.37"
8	1954	35.58"
9	1892	35.60"
10	2001	35.65"

1963, 1964 and 1965 was some three year stretch we also had some great winters in the 60s, 1960-61, 1963-64 and 1966-67. Summer 1966 was pretty great too!!

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

You would have loved the 1960s with snowy winters and drought conditions the rest of the year. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.4	8.3	7.1	10.1	6.1	0.1	32.0
1959-1960	0.0	0.5	15.8	2.5	1.9	18.5	0.0	39.2
1960-1961	T	0.0	18.6	16.7	18.2	1.2	T	54.7
1961-1962	0.0	T	7.7	0.6	9.6	0.2	T	18.1
1962-1963	T	T	4.5	5.3	3.7	2.8	T	16.3
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.3	13.3	14.1	6.0	T	44.7
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	3.1	14.8	2.5	2.8	1.2	24.4
1965-1966	T	0.0	T	11.6	9.8	T	0.0	21.4
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	9.1	1.4	23.6	17.4	T	51.5
1967-1968	0.0	3.2	5.5	3.6	1.1	6.1	0.0	19.5
1968-1969	0.0	T	7.0	1.0	16.6	5.6	0.0	30.2

 

The early 2010s were sort of like that too, well from 2009-10 to 2010-11 and if you want to go back to the 1990s the period from 1993 to 1996 was also very similar.

On 10/2/2026 at 10:41 PM, Evie3 said:

Here in New Jersey our drought warning is over.  There is a lingering drought watch in the southernmost area that includes Cape May, but the rest of the state is officially back  to normal:  https://dep.nj.gov/drought/current-conditions/#regional-drinking-water-supply-indicator-and-declared-water-supply-status

I have this new "lake" on the southeast side of my property surrounded by what I can only describe as a "clay pit" similar to the infamous La Brea tar pits in California that trapped various animals. I've gotten stuck in that clay pit on two different days I need to put markers up there.

On 10/2/2026 at 11:09 PM, rclab said:

Liberty if there’s an open casting call for 76 trombones you’d be a lock for the Professor Harold Hill role. As always ……
 

Yes I'm just glad this wet pattern happened in the back half of summer and not during the first half otherwise we'd be stuck with swarms of mosquitoes. Luckily the first freeze might be happening here next week!

I'm going to try and post some fall foliage pictures here let's see if they go through.

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

No need to search very far since it has been the dominant pattern since March.

Yet a couple of BN months in there including last one.

[TriPol]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

Warm October = snowy winter

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The early 2010s were sort of like that too, well from 2009-10 to 2010-11 and if you want to go back to the 1990s the period from 1993 to 1996 was also very similar.

Don't forget about 2002-03 to 2004-05. That was an epic 3-year stretch. Also, after 2009-10 and 2010-11, you had (after 2 lean years) 2013-14 and 2014-15 to complete the Big 4.

[forkyfork]

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Yet a couple of BN months in there including last one.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Yet a couple of BN months in there including last one.

Last month was N to a little AN for most stations with the exception of the immediate Long Island Sound stations like BDR and LGA.  All the other months back to March were also some degree of AN.

With such extensive ridging and record CONUS warmth, there wasn’t much cooler air around. So the few cooler spots last month like LGA and BDR had to rely on lower daytime highs rather than cooler minimums. 

May managed to finish a little above even with the cooler conditions just to our West. The record warm day where parts of the area reached 100° for the first time in May put that month over the top.

So the theme has been back and forth with the warmer departures being more impressive than the cooler ones.

October looks like a continuation of the same theme. Very warm start to the month with a cool down this week. But we warm right back up into the 70s again.

Whether we reach 80° again by mid-October will be contingent on sky conditions, wind direction, and how far north the moisture near the Gulf gets.
 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

Warm October = snowy winter

Hopefully

Its weird not seeing any cold air anywhere in the long range gfs.  I guess thats a Strong EL Nino for you.

[SACRUS]

58 / 57 cloud clearing our or burning up.  Looks like a very nice stretch of weather overall and dry  (we'll need to see if that holds) near to above normal for the period 10/5 - 10/14.  Looks like the 6th will be the coolest of the next 10 and 8-9th the warmest (perhaps a stray 80). We'll have to see if that dry forecast migrates to a more southerly warm / wetter one by mid month, but the dry period is very welcome.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1941)
NYC: 94 (1941)
LGA: 93 (1941)
JFK: 84 (1967)


Lows:

EWR: 34 (1965)
NYC: 35 (1881)
LGA: 38 (1965)
JFK: 36 (1965)

Historical:

 

1638 - The journal of John Winthrop recorded that a mighty tempest struck eastern New England. This second severe hurricane in three years blew down many trees in mile long tracks. (David Ludlum)

1786 - The famous "Pumpkin Flood" occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg PA reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. The heavy rains culminated a wet season. (David Ludlum)

 

1786: The famous “Pumpkin Flood” occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg, PA, reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. 

1844: A hurricane swept along the path from Cuba to the Florida Straits to the Bahamas to Bermuda and finally to Newfoundland. Such destruction "is rarely known in the annals of commerce." (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1892: Washington, DC recorded a trace of snow, its earliest trace of snowfall on record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1917 - The temperature at Sentinel, AZ, soared to 116 degrees to establish an October record for the nation. (The Weather Channel)

1941: Record maximum temperature for October 96° in Washington, DC. (The Washington Weather Records - KDCA) Bermuda high pressure pumped record heat across much of the east. Phoenixville, PA reached 100°, establishing an October state maximum temperature record. Locations recording their all-time October high temperature records included: Baltimore, MD: 97°, Washington, DC: 96°, and Philadelphia, PA: 96°. Other locations reporting daily record high included: Roanoke, VA: 98°, Harrisburg, PA: 97°, Richmond, VA: 97°, Lynchburg, VA: 96°, Raleigh, NC: 96°, Reading, PA: 94°, Trenton, NJ: 94°, Elizabeth City, NC: 94°, Wilmington, DE: 94°, Greensboro, NC: 94°, Newark, NJ: 93°, Norfolk, VA: 93°, Allentown, PA: 92°, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 92°, Chattanooga, TN: 92°, Williamsport, PA: 91°, Atlanta, GA: 91°, Huntington, WV: 90°, Asheville, NC: 90°, Avoca, PA: 89°, Scranton-Wilkes Barre, PA: 89°, Lexington, KY: 89°, Beckley, WV: 88° and Elkins, WV: 86°.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1954: Infamous Hurricane Hazel, which caused tremendous destruction in the Carolinas, was born on this date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1966: Inez formed unusually far east for late in the season, Inez is among the deadliest hurricanes on record, with an approximate death toll of over 1,000 people across several Caribbean countries. In addition to being exceptionally deadly and intense, Inez was the first solitary storm on record to affect the West Indies, Bahamas, Florida, and Mexico all on one track. 45 sailors died in shipwrecks in the Straits of Florida along with 3 on land. Intensification resumed after passing Guadeloupe, and Inez rapidly reached its peak of 150 mph while south of Puerto Rico on September 28. Inez crossed the Florida Keys on October 5 as a strengthening hurricane, delivering hurricane-force winds to all of the Keys. Inez then reaching its peak in the Gulf of Mexico with 140 mph winds and 948 mb on October 9. The threat to Texas increased, but Inez was forced southwest late on October 9 and the storm weakened before making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, on October 10. Total damage more than $150 million and on its very long track as a powerful major hurricane, passing through the Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Florida, and especially Mexico. Inez's Storm Track - Weather Underground

1970: An F4 tornado moved northeast from northern Pottawatomie County, into southeast Lincoln County in Oklahoma. A total of 564 homes, 157 businesses, 12 public buildings, 5 schools, and 10 churches were either damaged or destroyed. In Prague, there were 4 deaths and 80 injuries, as the tornado tracked through the middle of town. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972 - Heavy rains, mostly the remnants of Tropical Storm Joanne, fell across much of Arizona. It was believed to be the first time in Arizona weather history that a tropical storm entered the state with its circulation still intact. The center was over Flagstaff early on the 7th. (3rd-7th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was another day of scorching heat for the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, and 104 degrees at Monterrey, established all-time records. The high of 101 degrees at San Jose was a record for October. Sacramento tied their record for October for the third time in the month, with a reading of 102 degrees. The high for the nation was 111 degrees at San Luis Obispo and Palm Springs. Twenty cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Knoxville TN with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thirteen cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN with a reading of 21 degrees. Goodland KS reported an afternoon high of 39 degrees. Showers over Upper Michigan produced an inch of snow at Marquette. (The National Weather Summary)

1995: After accelerating northward out of the Gulf of Mexico, Opal moved quickly through the Eastern United States. Despite hundreds of miles of travel from the Gulf of Mexico, gale force winds blew through western Virginia. Winds sustained at 40 mph, with gusts past 60 mph, blew down trees mainly above 2000 feet elevation in the Shenandoah Valley and along the Allegheny Plateau. Dozens of trees were blown down along Skyline Drive in Page and Warren counties. In Waynesboro, a canopy over a service station was ripped off. South Winchester and Elkton saw 2600 homes and businesses without power as lines were downed by the winds. Two tornadoes struck the tidewater. One touched down at West Point airport in New Kent county. It tore the roof off a hangar, destroying a small airplane and damaging four others. (Ref. Hurricane Opal)


1998: A big three-day snowstorm came to an end over the Black Hills in South Dakota. Galena was buried under 48 inches of snow and Lead checked in with 42.1 inches. Rain and embedded thunderstorms dumped a large area of 4 to 10 inches of rain producing widespread flooding. Most of the flooding was confined to low areas along creeks and highways. The hardest hit areas were in southeast Kansas and west central and central Missouri. Numerous highways were closed due to high water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: North Dakota: After sweating through 90 °F plus heat at month's onset, North Dakotans see heavy snow fall across much of the state. Observers report 12 inches of snow around Halliday and 10 inches at Fairfield, north of Belfield in Billings County. Minot measures 8-10 inches. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2010: Sviolent hail storm taken on Tuesday, Oct. 5th around 59th Ave. & Cactus in Phoenix Severe thunderstorms produced the largest hail ever measured in Phoenix, Arizona, and Maricopa County. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter caused extensive damage. The largest known hailstone to fall in in the state of Arizona (back to 1950) was 4.5 inches in diameter. This record hail fell in Mayer on September 20, 1995. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)
 

2010: Large hail pounded Phoenix, Arizona, causing nearly $3 billion in damage. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Phoenix, Arizona.

[SACRUS]

Noreaster cooled the coastal water a bit but the lack of a tropical season has allowed the Atlantic to remain above normal

 

 

Globally

 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, TriPol said:

Warm October = snowy winter

There aren’t really any inverse temperature correlations between October and the winter. When relationships do exist, it’s more on a CONUS  and North American level of similar October to winter temperatures.

For instance very warm Octobers across the CONUS and North America sometimes continue into the winter.

Same for very cold Octobers continuing into the winter.

Our last much weaker super El Niño in 2023 -2024 had a very warm October in the Northeast and this continued for the winter.

Other times the October pattern doesn’t continue into the winter. So it’s mostly magnitude dependent across a larger area.