October 2026 general discussion

[CoastalWx]

5 yr anny of the big blow in SE areas. One of the top wind storms of my life. Phil just dragging his sack all over.

[kdxken]

[tamarack]

54 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stunner. Perfect day to collect some firewood. Big old black locust. Throw it right in the stove. 

 

Along with white oak, hickories and hophornbeam, it's tops for BTU.  Only the HH is available around here.

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Along with white oak, hickories and hophornbeam, it's tops for BTU.  Only the HH is available around here.

Yup…very hard wood for sure. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

In Methuen people are taking wood pallets from business parking lots....

[kdxken]

 Might not be hyperbole to say best month ever. 

 

 

[powderfreak]

GEFS look cool heading into mid-November.

[CoastalWx]

I will say the pattern on the EPS and AI EPS is a little interesting regarding storminess later in the 11-15 day. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the pattern on the EPS and AI EPS is a little interesting regarding storminess later in the 11-15 day. 

Yup...looking like we may see things get a bit active...could be some good news for some of the ski areas within the West too. Noticed too systems will be flying across the country 

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the pattern on the EPS and AI EPS is a little interesting regarding storminess later in the 11-15 day. 

December is going to surprise even the most seasoned prognosticator. More and more evidence showing up.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

December is going to surprise even the most seasoned prognosticator. More and more evidence showing up.

Some see super Nino and just automatically fixate on that one aspect. 

[powderfreak]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the pattern on the EPS and AI EPS is a little interesting regarding storminess later in the 11-15 day. 

Yeah I saw that… the AI has been flagging that period for a few runs.  Not necessarily cold but something interesting.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

 Might not be hyperbole to say best month ever. 

 

 

May have to be careful here…not sure. Once METAR took over in 1996 everything went to <= 12kft ceilometer observations. A few of the larger airports did augment higher levels in, but I’m not sure how consistent that has been. BOS has had a 25kft ceilometer for awhile now, and does consistently augment, but I’m not sure how the high level coverage compares to the pre ASOS days with manned SA obs. At least Fish was smart enough to use BOS.

@vortex95 would probably know more on that

Here’s CON. A big “drop off” in cloudiness in 1996 once the ceiling reporting stopped at 12kft.

It’s pretty stupid seeing obs reported as CLR/Fair when it’s totally overcast at 15kft.

[CoastalWx]

I’d probably use Blue Hill as the standard for sunshine hours.

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

December is going to surprise even the most seasoned prognosticator. More and more evidence showing up.

Just cocked up

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...looking like we may see things get a bit active...could be some good news for some of the ski areas within the West too. Noticed too systems will be flying across the country 

These would be some nasty cold rains if they work out. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

These would be some nasty cold rains if they work out. 

The perfect cliche of….A Cold November Rain.  So appropriate.  

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

May have to be careful here…not sure. Once METAR took over in 1996 everything went to <= 12kft ceilometer observations. A few of the larger airports did augment higher levels in, but I’m not sure how consistent that has been. BOS has had a 25kft ceilometer for awhile now, and does consistently augment, but I’m not sure how the high level coverage compares to the pre ASOS days with manned SA obs. At least Fish was smart enough to use BOS.

@vortex95 would probably know more on that

Here’s CON. A big “drop off” in cloudiness in 1996 once the ceiling reporting stopped at 12kft.

It’s pretty stupid seeing obs reported as CLR/Fair when it’s totally overcast at 15kft.

Is this the reason why MOS only reports sky cover forecast <12kft? 

That's one thing I like about NBM...I believe it accounts for higher clouds and will do much better at the sky cover forecasts. Though I think the NBM can sometimes be a bit too aggressive

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't recall memories of this day (but I do remember 5/29/95 and 7/15/95) but being made aware of this some years later, pretty impressive storm which formed along a backdoor front. 

Usually, BDFs are not good tstms producers, at least for eastern sections.  Once they get to the CT Valley, things do much better.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Some see super Nino and just automatically fixate on that one aspect. 

Cue forky

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s also hard for my hood to get to below 32 before 11/1. Might be similar to ORH although I think I hit it once. Since 2020. I did get to 23 on 10/31/20 with 5” OTG lol.

That event was cool.  Couldn't do it BOS S for the Oct 2011 monster, but a kinda MEH system made for the biggest snowstorm and snowfall in Oct for many locations ern MA and RI.  But then @CoastalWx immediately thought of what happened after Oct 2011 for the winter...worst ev-A!  So his excitement was quickly quelled!

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, kdxken said:

This is why the green clean energy inititiave is flawed, as in trying to push everything electric and wind/solar.  Where are the decreased costs promised from wind/solar?  States like MA claim to be more green energy and yet look what is happening.  All the green energy should help keep electric costs down despite higher oil prices, but do you see that happening?  We keep being told it will come down, but it doesn't

So having other sources available such as NG, coal, diesel, and even all the way back to wood are good to have.  Why should the population be constrained to one type energy (electric), which is being pushed by certain powers.  Having options allows one to budget better and reduces personal costs.  Also, it prevents a single point of failure, like when the power goes out.  You still have NG, coal, diesel, and wood as options to help get by.

In the end, that's what matters to people.  Virtual signaling about "saving the planet" goes out the window when you are struggling to pay bills to heat your home.  When push comes to shove to provide the absolute basics for you and your family, this will override anything else.

So stock up on wood to alleviate high energy costs!

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

May have to be careful here…not sure. Once METAR took over in 1996 everything went to <= 12kft ceilometer observations. A few of the larger airports did augment higher levels in, but I’m not sure how consistent that has been. BOS has had a 25kft ceilometer for awhile now, and does consistently augment, but I’m not sure how the high level coverage compares to the pre ASOS days with manned SA obs. At least Fish was smart enough to use BOS.

@vortex95 would probably know more on that

Here’s CON. A big “drop off” in cloudiness in 1996 once the ceiling reporting stopped at 12kft.

It’s pretty stupid seeing obs reported as CLR/Fair when it’s totally overcast at 15kft.

Yes, I never liked CLR BLO 120.  The reason for this is that in the vicinity of airports. clouds above 12,000 ft are irrelevant for take off and landing.  ASOS was primarily designed for aviation, so you lost some things when it went from manual obs to ASOS.  Like minutes of sunshine (report in the additive data once a day) and of course, snowfall/depth/LEQ on the ground at many first order climate sites.  Cloud groups L-M-H (8/xxx) were lost as well.  And no distinction between showery and synoptic pcpn anymore.  And KEWL remarks like DRFTNG SNW, LTG types, and TORNADO/FUNNEL CLOUD, plus all shorts of unique remarks to describe a wx situation.  I made a list back in the late 80s for many of them (I'll post it when I get it from my archives at home).  Some I can recall.

MOON DMLY VSBL (not something @CoastalWx likes b/c that mean diamond dust at 30,000 ft)!
FQT LTG IN CB
ACRFT MISHAP (accident at airport)
DARK NW
SUN DOG
WET SNW
HLSTO 3 INCH (I always liked that better than the METAR code that would just say "GR 3")! 

And when LTG was reported, they could actually see it at the airport.  Now, many sites report LTG based on CG strikes with a range.  LTG DSNT report means 10-30 mi away, but says nothing if anything was seen!  TS reported when LTG is within 5 mi, but that does not mean thunder is actually heard at the location.  Sure, many times, if a CG is 5 mi away, you will hear thunder, but not always due to atmospheric conditions.

And how ASOS can not distinguish HZ from FU and DU .  That is significant!

An items lost due to METAR code?  Svr tstm.  If hail 1" or more was falling or a G50 kt or more.  The code would be T+ in the SA code.  Nothing like that exists for METAR format.

Getting back to the CLR BLO 120.  That is significant for nowcasting.  Even a thin layer of high clouds coming in on a night w/ good rad cooling, that puts the breaks on it from realized its true bottom out potential.  And just cloudy days.  You can have entire day high OVC at 25k, and the ASOS would never know there were any clouds!

Some AWOS now do have ceilometers that go above 12k ft.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

These would be some nasty cold rains if they work out. 

The very worst for @CoastalWx is when it is 39 F and rain all day! 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d probably use Blue Hill as the standard for sunshine hours.

From Scott's fav wx movie, CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS!

 

[Prismshine Productions]

How to make all of Eastern Mass be pissed off:

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[Snowedin]

9 hours ago, kdxken said:

 Might not be hyperbole to say best month ever. 

 

 

In a normal, non-chaotic climate zone I’d say may fits the bill 9 times out of 10..but ya never know what you’re gonna get in this misty, coastal zone of madness in what should normally be a beautiful month.

[Modfan2]

Temp down to 31F this am