October 2026 general discussion

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Scott says no lol….Tip says we may have already seen our nor’easter…. easy to say when it’s 9-10 days away.  But…

 

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss

100% toss…for now.

GDM is pretty bullish on a storm developing off the coast, it just doesn’t bring it anywhere close to us. 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Be careful…James is watching you. 

We hope and pray, but deep down it sails away. 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We hope and pray, but deep down it sails away. 

Can’t be 100% certain…this year systems want seem to want to hit us.  So we’ll see.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

100% toss…for now.

GDM is pretty bullish on a storm developing off the coast, it just doesn’t bring it anywhere close to us. 

To be clear ... "already" does not = can't happen again.  When I said that, it was purely in support of the poster's assertion and this year 'may have succeeded in the statistical suggestion already' - that is/was the context in fair reading...  

but I would caution anyway - seeing as no one else had mentioned this ... - there are very few or even no ensemble members as amplified or even tolerably similar to that Euro's D8+, 00z range - a range typically proven fantasy as an aside.  Lack of support is also true outside of the EPS cluster, U.S. and Canadian punt.  

Having said that, since there is a climate suggestion for front side warm ENSOs somehow enhancing EC cyclogenesis, and this autumn ...definitely circumstantially applies, wisely it's not impossible.  200+ hours leaves time to modulate other guidance.

[Ginx snewx]

Deep freeze Sunday morning wind chills as well.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Deep freeze Sunday morning wind chills as well.

Sunday morning looks calm. Wind chills Saturday but temps in Low 50s. Meh.

[dryslot]

15 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

This was the snow I heard about in Maine I guess yesterday but it was way up in the northwest I guess. Anyone get an inch?

I think there was at least that in some spots up in the county if you look at the NOHRSC map,

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Can’t be 100% certain…this year systems want seem to want to hit us.  So we’ll see.

If you look at what the euro did, it’s ridiculous at 500. It decides to move a 500 trough that was moving east and just dig it southwest. Thats just beer.

 

A more likely scenario is a coastal low well offshore. That euro depiction was insane. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Pretty much peak color in the Amherst Northampton area this week.
I’ll take some photos later.

[Damage In Tolland]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Deep freeze Sunday morning wind chills as well.

Not here. We grow with wind up . Whole cold shot basically went poof 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not here. We grow with wind up . Whole cold shot basically went poof 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday morning looks calm. Wind chills Saturday but temps in Low 50s. Meh.

 

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you look at what the euro did, it’s ridiculous at 500. It decides to move a 500 trough that was moving east and just dig it southwest. Thats just beer.

 

A more likely scenario is a coastal low well offshore. That euro depiction was insane. 

Gfs and icon well west. Maybe time to track this?

[Typhoon Tip]

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

October will be another blowtorch. The whole CONUS is on fire 

[ineedsnow]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and icon well west. Maybe time to track this?

12z GEFS starting to pick up on it

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

October will be another blowtorch. The whole CONUS is on fire 

mm  yeah  

thing is, it doesn't feel that way for us here in SNE .. 

maybe it's this 'blazing above normal' because the nights stay hot under cooler afternoon routine that's been going on since global warming began it seems  ( )  - if that is the reason for that 'faux impression'

my hunch is that we will be among the coolest relative to the whole, while still being above normal? 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  yeah  

thing is, it doesn't feel that way for us here in SNE .. 

maybe it's this 'blazing above normal' because he nights stay hot under cooler afternoon routine that's been going on since global warming began it seems  ( )  - if that is the reason for that 'faux impression'

my hunch is that we will be among the coolest relative to the whole, while still being above normal? 

Kind of the theme since July-warm but not the warmest as that stays to our S and W

[SouthCoastMA]

Sell. Save your time for Winter. Looks like an easy whiff to me

[SouthCoastMA]

give me 60s through Novie, with spot 70s. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Fake cold always over achieves. Real cold always under-achieves

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

Way too cold here 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Way too cold here 

That’s at 6z too. Sunday morning is light winds.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s at 6z too. Sunday morning is light winds.

Another one for the fakers 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

All you gotta do is look at last years…abysmal performance by them. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI misses next week aside for gusty winds on coast but then tries again at the end of its run. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI misses next week aside for gusty winds on coast but then tries again at the end of its run. 

bizarre .. the operational version too.  Chaotic hodgepodge of perforation in anything that resembles a ridge.  That's been a verifying theme, though - holes punched in ridges. 

seems like there will be holes punched in the heights S of the polar branch, but at this range ... not correct on where those are.  That run from 00z happened to time/place one where a book-end TC happened to be getting going ... Goes on to being a nice example of spontaneous emergence from model generated noise. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

bizarre .. the operational version too.  Chaotic hodgepodge of perforation in anything that resembles a ridge.  That's been a verifying theme, though - holes punched in ridges. 

seems like there will be holes punched in the heights S of the polar branch, but at this range ... not correct on where those are.  That run from 00z happened to time/place one where a book-end TC happened to be getting going ... Goes on to being a nice example of spontaneous emergence from model generated noise. 

I don’t necessarily have an issue with the depiction of low heights and a cut off over the southeast trying to form a coastal, but last night’s euro was absurd lol.
 

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Pretty much peak color in the Amherst Northampton area this week.
I’ll take some photos later.

Not far off here. Unfortunate about tomorrow's degrader.  One of the best years in many. 

 

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All you gotta do is look at last years…abysmal performance by them. 

To be fair it’s a basic strong nino forecast. Compare this year’s to 23-24 and 15-16 and then what the actuals were.