October 2026 general discussion

[vortex95]

And 39 years ago today, the best early season PT snow event ev-A!  Needless to say, it was not fcst!

Accum map attached but it's off a bit.  7" fell at DXR and 1" at HVN.  Max amount of 26" at Slide Mtn NY and 22" at Grafton NY.  18" at Pownal VT.  A trace of snow fell as far E as Ashburnham MA in the @ineedsnow area and as far S as NYC.  Not just an elevation storm as even ALB got 6".  I have read that the snow was so wet, it was 3:1 ratio, but I do not think that is possible.  Let the snow weenie here chime in on this -- "what was the lowest snow ratio event you have had?"

It is the first time the term "warm snowstorm" was used, as many areas never fell below 32 for the entire event.

Did an 8 year old @CoastalWxrecall waking up this Sunday morning and wondered, "how could this happen?!"   Does he even remember it at all?

[Torch Tiger]

Nasty - thankfully nothing like that on the horizon.

[codfishsnowman]

Mr Glp1 just recently put out a wildly hyped up video about major changes to the wild and crazy historic once in a lifetime super el nino winter on steroids en route

The takeaway

The mid south might have a significant winter weather event if the cold air and moisture are timed right.  Someone might buy a powerball ticket at the local convenience store too.

Furthermore, I think it's a little insulting to folks in the south. It's not as though they're unfamiliar with the possibility of a period or two wintry weather every few years. Yes, it's very disruptive but these folks deal with deadly heatwaves, tornadoes and just thunderstorms in general that would make many New England folk run for cover and floods. Is there any end to the hype ever?

 

[codfishsnowman]

9 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

apparently some disagree; my wife was happy, this is her car:

I also did the silver Accord; that didn't need as much paint

Wow you're garage is so neat and orderly. I would be terrified to show anyone my housemates garage lol

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

Mr Glp1 just recently put out a wildly hyped up video about major changes to the wild and crazy historic once in a lifetime super el nino winter on steroids en route

The takeaway

The mid south might have a significant winter weather event if the cold air and moisture are timed right.  Someone might buy a powerball ticket at the local convenience store too.

Furthermore, I think it's a little insulting to folks in the south. It's not as though they're unfamiliar with the possibility of a period or two wintry weather every few years. Yes, it's very disruptive but these folks deal with deadly heatwaves, tornadoes and just thunderstorms in general that would make many New England folk run for cover and floods. Is there any end to the hype ever?

 

The "what if" and "could be" scenarios along w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and opinion are all that matters.   It is the business paradigm, and a deplorable one at that.

ENSO does not work necessarily in a linear fashion for all regions of the globe, so the notion that this is strongest one on record = worse by default is flawed.  Also, you can't compare ones long ago (1877-78) to what would happen today in terms of societal impact.  50M fatalities then and equating to now?  Back then, the world was very different.  You did not have scale of global economic trade and communication, let alone forecasts that allow us to prepare.

And we did just fine in all other very strong El Ninos since 1950, so why is this one going to be *any* different overall?  I say "overall" b/c that is key.  Yes, the Atlantic TC season is more suppressed than ever, and the EPAC is record levels, but focusing on such details is narrow-minded.  What is happening in the big picture, and taking into account to what has happened before in very strong El Ninos, is actually happening as expected for TCs in the Atlantic and EPAC.  And we already see signs for the STJ getting active in the LR and already a wet pattern across the Gulf Coast States, and perhaps our first Gulf wave/Miller A storm.

There is far to much focus on what is different and the negative, and the same and positive are ignored, ever notice that?  You'd think El Nino leads to pure atmospheric chaos, when it clearly does not.  It is well understood and has plenty of order, as evidenced what was said in the previous paragraph.

And yet you get fear-mongering articles like this:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/23/climate/super-el-nino-heat-deaths

Notice it is "could cause", again, conditional supposition.  But here what they do not tell you. Such warmer global conditions mitigate significant cold-related issues/fatalities globally, and cold causes more fatalities than warm in the mean. The article says that there could be an excess of 3500 fatalities in the U.S. alone, but no mention of lives saved due things like the lack of hurricanes and a mild winter.  Clear cherry-picking/omission of facts here.

Want harder info and proof?  See here about the impacts of the 1997-98 event.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/80/9/1520-0477_1999_080_1819_ioenog_2_0_co_2.xml

So they found for costs:
• $1.7 billion, and uninsured losses were estimated
as $ 1.1 billion based on the fact that insured storm
losses normally represent 65% of all structural
losses from storms
• federal government relief = $400 million;
• state assistance costs = $125 million;
• agricultural losses = $650 to $700 million;
• lost sales in snow-removal equipment = $60-
$80 million
• losses in the tourist industry = $ 180 to $200 million.

For benefits:
• reduced heating costs = $6.7 billion;
• increased sales of merchandise, homes, and other
goods = $5.6 billion;
• reductions in costs of street/highway removal of ice
and snow = $350-$400 million;
• reductions in normal losses due to absence of
snowmelt floods and no Atlantic hurricanes =
$6.9 billion;
• income from increased construction and related
employment = $450-$500 million
• reduced operating costs to airlines and trucking industry
= $160-$ 175million.

Totals:
LOSSES
Human lives lost = 189
Economic losses and costs = $4.2-$4.5 billion

BENEFITS
Human lives saved = 850
Economic gains = $19.6-$ 19.9 billion

So how is this bad net-net?  Very strong El Nino has a considerable net benefit. and from an individual intuitive/empirical observation POV, it is not hard to see how such benefits come about in society.  The savings in heating costs *alone* exceed all other losses.
 

 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

And 39 years ago today, the best early season PT snow event ev-A!  Needless to say, it was not fcst!

Accum map attached but it's off a bit.  7" fell at DXR and 1" at HVN.  Max amount of 26" at Slide Mtn NY and 22" at Grafton NY.  18" at Pownal VT.  A trace of snow fell as far E as Ashburnham MA in the @ineedsnow area and as far S as NYC.  Not just an elevation storm as even ALB got 6".  I have read that the snow was so wet, it was 3:1 ratio, but I do not think that is possible.  Let the snow weenie here chime in on this -- "what was the lowest snow ratio event you have had?"

It is the first time the term "warm snowstorm" was used, as many areas never fell below 32 for the entire event.

Did an 8 year old @CoastalWxrecall waking up this Sunday morning and wondered, "how could this happen?!"   Does he even remember it at all?

One of the historically fun obs out of SCH

KSCH 041300Z 30016G26KT 5/16SM TSSN FG OVC005 00/M A2978 RMK LTG HIT TREE AE SLPNO T0000////

[dendrite]

Min 39.0°

Lots of 20s up north. HIE 27, HUL 28

Coldest I saw was 23° at Estcourt.

[dendrite]

It’s actually quite frosty in the back field despite 39°

[moneypitmike]

18 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Glad we don’t live there.  Not sure any forecast would call this partly/mostly cloudy anywhere though.

 

We didn't have a hint of a cloud yesterday......most of the most beautiful evah.

[BrianW]

47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Min 39.0°

Lots of 20s up north. HIE 27, HUL 28

Coldest I saw was 23° at Estcourt.

BDR with a 54 for the low. 

BDR still hasn't gone below 50 and Upton thinks we stay above.

The coolest airmass of this fall will advect into the area Monday night into Tuesday and then remain in place into Wednesday. Lows Monday night will fall into the 40s for the most part with the coolest readings well inland. The NYC metro may remain right around 50. 

 

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, DirtySnowDen said:

Yes, yes it is. I already live on it.

not trying to throw a “yellow card” for the shoreline, but it’s better than living on “Ocean Avenue.”

What town?

[BrianW]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What town?

Meriden, CT? It does have a local nickname of the "Dirty Den". 

[CoastalWx]

49.6 here. I think coolest so far this season. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, BrianW said:

Meriden, CT? It does have a local nickname of the "Dirty Den". 

Seems like he hits the dispensary before he posts so I wasn’t sure. 

[CoastalWx]

Can’t wait to see past peak next weekend.  

[Bostonseminole]

Dropped to 48 coldest so far -


.

[vortex95]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Now look at that list and tell the ones that would most like to relive and I bet they are Miller B.

Overall for the E Coast for the top positions, Miller As rule on the NESIS.

Bliz of 93 #1

Bliz of 96 #2
https://micromet.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php

Mar 2-5, 1960  #3 
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/19600302-19600305-8.77.jpg

Bliz  of 1899 was Miller A and was on par w/ the Bliz of 93
https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2023/02/1899-Weather-Map-Feb.-12-1899.jpg
 

And best snowstorm BOS ob ever and highest gust w/ a snowstorm is from the Bliz of 93!

BOS RS 2250 W0 X 0TS+BS 875/31/31/0647G62/916/R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/11/12

If you had snowfall measurements done consistency and right back in the day, BOS top 10s would not be what they are currently as prior to the 1990s.  Snowfall practices then resulted in too low totals.

But Don't be a @CoastalWx and act IMBY only!  
 

[powderfreak]

Got 32F here.

Third frost of the season.

[Brewbeer]

4 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

Wow you're garage is so neat and orderly. I would be terrified to show anyone my housemates garage lol

the garage is not wide enough, so it needs to be super orderly to fit 2 cars.  I built shelving and hanging points for stuff so 2 cars (barely) fit. 

keeping a bunch of next to worthless junk occupying a garage space when a 20 or $30K vehicle sits in the driveway getting pummeled by the weather is a mindset I don't understand

currently 50/50F, off a morning low of 47

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Overall for the E Coast for the top positions, Miller As rule on the NESIS.

Bliz of 93 #1

Bliz of 96 #2
https://micromet.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php

Mar 2-5, 1960  #3 
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/19600302-19600305-8.77.jpg

Bliz  of 1899 was Miller A and was on par w/ the Bliz of 93
https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2023/02/1899-Weather-Map-Feb.-12-1899.jpg
 

And best snowstorm BOS ob ever and highest gust w/ a snowstorm is from the Bliz of 93!

BOS RS 2250 W0 X 0TS+BS 875/31/31/0647G62/916/R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/11/12

If you had snowfall measurements done consistency and right back in the day, BOS top 10s would not be what they are currently as prior to the 1990s.  Snowfall practices then resulted in too low totals.

But Don't be a @CoastalWx and act IMBY only!  
 

Talking about Southern New England, though not the mid Atlantic. Don’t care about MEHSIS

[dendrite]

Miller Ass
Miller BS

Just give me a bunch of nice safe SWFEs where I don’t have to worry about deform bands, screw zones, downsloping, etc. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Low 40s this AM. Colors cooking along.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You could tell how cold it was last night. No crickets were chirping, dead silent night.

[WxWatcher007]

46.7° at WXW1 / 48° at HFD 

33.7° at WXW2 / 27° at SLK

Coldest so far at WXW2. Should reach the 20s the next few nights with SLK having a chance of reaching the teens. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Overall for the E Coast for the top positions, Miller As rule on the NESIS.

Bliz of 93 #1

Bliz of 96 #2
https://micromet.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php

Mar 2-5, 1960  #3 
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/19600302-19600305-8.77.jpg

Bliz  of 1899 was Miller A and was on par w/ the Bliz of 93
https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2023/02/1899-Weather-Map-Feb.-12-1899.jpg
 

And best snowstorm BOS ob ever and highest gust w/ a snowstorm is from the Bliz of 93!

BOS RS 2250 W0 X 0TS+BS 875/31/31/0647G62/916/R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/11/12

If you had snowfall measurements done consistency and right back in the day, BOS top 10s would not be what they are currently as prior to the 1990s.  Snowfall practices then resulted in too low totals.

But Don't be a @CoastalWx and act IMBY only!  
 

I don't give a rat's ass about the east coast as a whole, I care about MBY.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Talking about Southern New England, though not the mid Atlantic. Don’t care about MEHSIS

Of course Miller A is more prolific for the majority of the east coast, Miller B is dependent on N stream influx, so they are northeast centric....which is why we are more likely to get a favorable track and timing of evolution. Less time for it to go wrong....kind of like how storm chasers on the gulf coast would father a home-brew under pristine conditions than a CV long-tracker.

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Got 32F here.

Third frost of the season.

Looks like MPV got down to 32°. Unfortunately my PWS is down so I don’t know what I got down to here. As for foliage, I think this weekend was probably peak. 

[Snowedin]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You could tell how cold it was last night. No crickets were chirping, dead silent night.

Yeah it was kind of eerie after spending some time outside Fri afternoon and they were singing almost nonstop. Then we go from late summer to early fall just like that. Hopefully we can get at least a week or so of “Indian summer” before the door fully slams shut by mowvember. 

[ineedsnow]

Congrats NNE on the 12z GFS 

[ineedsnow]

Whatever forms in the Gulf it looks like we get the leftovers next weekend