October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like we have to toss euro AI

You screwed it up when you told Anthony this wasn’t for him…too funny. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You screwed it up when you told Anthony this wasn’t for him…too funny. 

Meh long way to go. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

If anyone wishes to chime in, I have a friend flying back from Colorado this Sunday. She should be ok getting in around 7pm. The worst should be over by then, no? Edit: maybe not 

Should be fine imo. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh long way to go. 

For sure…but just ironic how as soon as you said that, the runs start showing a NYC crusher. 

[kdxken]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI maximizes well south through. Meh.

Euro SI. Do you want to lose your funding? Keep it up.

“From this point forward, all of United States documents and hopefully the world’s will be changed to use the much more accurate term super as opposed to artificial,” he continued. 

 

“In other words, welcome to the new world of super intelligence — SI,

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You screwed it up when you told Anthony this wasn’t for him…too funny. 

Jersey shore to Boston is in the cross hairs for wind, beach erosion, and heavy rain or all 3.

[bristolri_wx]

Models still trying to figure out where the hell those two lows are going to phase or merge.  Probably going to be jumping hundreds of miles each run for the next 36 hours - ensembles rule until then.  Are they doing any air force recon data ingestion runs for this storm since it's potentially going to have some warm-core components?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

For sure…but just ironic how as soon as you said that, the runs start showing a NYC crusher. 

It’s more brief there and N winds so probably not a huge deal. If it tucked in closer to NYC before weakening it would be more impactful. 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Jersey shore to Boston is in the cross hairs for wind, beach erosion, and heavy rain or all 3.

 

[CoastalWx]

Basically 40-60 gusts NYC to BOS. At least drought ends.

[Masswx]

Sandy track

[Brian5671]

60mph winds out of the east or northeast would be a big deal here with saturated ground and fully leafed trees

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

60mph winds out of the east or northeast would be a big deal here with saturated ground and fully leafed trees

Think gradient is more N to NE there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Basically 40-60 gusts NYC to BOS. At least drought ends.

Big Infrastructure issues Let’s do this . Except coasts will gust 70+. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big Infrastructure issues Let’s do this . Except coasts will gust 70+. 

I don’t see 70 right now.

[SouthCoastMA]

40-60mph gusts is a typical October nor'easter around here. Seems like a big deal becuase it has been boring as ****. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t see 70 right now.

See it , hear it, feel it 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

40-60mph gusts is a typical October nor'easter around here. Seems like a big deal becuase its been boring as ****. 

40-60 mph gusts is a pretty big deal when you have fully leaves trees, especially when you're talking about a long-duration of those gusts. Summer thunderstorms which gust in that range for like 20 seconds knock down tree limbs and power lines 

[MJO812]

Eps is further west

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

40-60 mph gusts is a pretty big deal when you have fully leaves trees, especially when you're talking about a long-duration of those gusts. Summer thunderstorms which gust in that range for like 20 seconds knock down tree limbs and power lines 

yea there will be some damage especially in areas further west..the trees are pretty hardy in this region though. twigs and maybe some limbs possible with that. 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

40-60 mph gusts is a pretty big deal when you have fully leaves trees, especially when you're talking about a long-duration of those gusts. Summer thunderstorms which gust in that range for like 20 seconds knock down tree limbs and power lines 

It would cause outages, but it’s nothing we haven’t seen before in October when there still is leaves on the trees. At least on the coast. Obviously, inland  it matters.

[ineedsnow]

EPS

[Bostonseminole]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t see 70 right now.

yeah maybe 40-50 max gusts 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It would cause outages, but it’s nothing we haven’t seen before in October when there still is leaves on the trees. At least on the coast. Obviously, inland  it matters.

One of those somewhat rare deals where interior has more wind issues than coast with this in terms of trees and lines out of a direction trees are not used to gusts from that direction. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One of those somewhat rare deals where interior has more wind issues than coast with this in terms of trees and lines out of a direction trees are not used to gusts from that direction. 

It’s still uncertain to me how much wind the interior sees. You guys are gonna be wedged it’s gonna be pretty darn cool at the surface. So that’s gonna hold back some mixing there. It depends on the track and how strong this thing is.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s still uncertain to me how much wind the interior sees. You guys are gonna be wedged it’s gonna be pretty darn cool at the surface. So that’s gonna hold back some mixing there. It depends on the track and how strong this thing is.

Vort95 will have some thoughts for you i believe. 

[ineedsnow]

just once I want a storm like this shooting up the coast

[CoastalWx]

Deep mind still has two clusters but a big cluster south of eastern Long Island to Block Island. Seems to be a lot of members sort of stall and spin in that area before wobbling back northeast. Seems to be a decent consensus around that spot I think.

[tiger_deF]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS

Give me that 975 mb ensemble member please 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Vort95 will have some thoughts for you i believe. 

A lot of uncertainties still Kev…if this thing really amps up into a powerhouse, then ya sure the winds could crank inland.  If it’s a weak dog, forget it.  We have a couple more Days to see how things come together.