September 2026 Medium/Long Range

[Ji]

GFS ensembles went south too

[Ji]

beautiful run

[Interstate]

and we have our first true model battle... let winter begin.

 

GFS- North and wet

EURO- South and dry

[frd]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z models for Sunday.

 

WPC does not agree

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

and we have our first true model battle... let winter begin.
 
GFS- North and wet
EURO- South and dry

Gfs ensembles don’t support op though

[aldie 22]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs ensembles don’t support op though

Let me guess, outdoor church concert on Sunday or a softball game for your kids?

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Let me guess, outdoor church concert on Sunday or a softball game for your kids?

softball tournament lol

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO v. 12Z; very inconsistent.

[Weather Will]

NWS Sterling for Sunday.... like most systems we are in wait and see mode.

A wave of low pressure, infused with tropical moisture from the
remnants of multiple East Pacific systems, treks toward the OH/TN
Valleys Saturday into Saturday night. The track of the low beyond
this point will depend on (1) where exactly the stalled front is,
and (2) the strength of a transient blocking high pressure to the
north. Rain or showers become increasingly likely for much of the
region Saturday night into Sunday, with a soaking rain possible if
the wave of low pressure is a bit more organized/closer to the area.

 

[CAPE]

Pretty big differences wrt the interaction between the northern and southern h5 vorticity on the Euro compared to GFS, thus quite different outcomes at the surface. Ofc this will vary from run-to run on the ops at this range. 

[CAPE]

The Natty Blend suggests most of our area might not be the target for significant rain- with the frontal passage itself as well as low pressure that may form on the slowed/stalled front to our south. Close though and subject to change based on the suite of model inputs it uses. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Pattern change cancelled?

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Pattern change cancelled?

Sure looks that way. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sure looks that way. 

How... just how...

This weekend showed signs that we've finally turned the corner and that the niño was actually kicking in.

How is it even possible that it was yet another rug pull and a repeat of late May...

Is there ever going to be a wet pattern?

[SnowenOutThere]

New GFS run is a complete cave. Glad this isn’t a snow storm or the 12z euro into 18z gfs would’ve made this place a bloodbath.

[WVclimo]

Hiking all day Sunday at Dolly Sods.  I’ve been hoping for that south trend to end up being the correct solution.

[TSSN+]

Where’s the mositure? 

[Ji]

Where’s the mositure? 

Don’t look at the 18z euro

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

How... just how...

This weekend showed signs that we've finally turned the corner and that the niño was actually kicking in.

How is it even possible that it was yet another rug pull and a repeat of late May...

Is there ever going to be a wet pattern?

I'm not sure what you're expecting out of a nino, like bomb cyclones twice a week or something?  We just got through with a solid week with multiple inches of precip.  It's been crap clouds with occasional drizzle since Saturday at least.  We're tracking precip for the upcoming weekend.  Our avg precip is like 4" a month, not 14".  

[CAPE]

Not hating it if we miss the rain this weekend. Maybe selfishly because my yard just had an inch+, but didn't get much over here when places west were getting soaked the previous event. All  evens out. I prefer a nice, rainless weekend to enjoy outside stuff- like stacking firewood that's been piled up for a month.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Where’s the mositure? 

Look upstairs. See my previous post. Not into what model caves to another or whatever, but there is definitely a legit fail mode for our region... Fail if you want rain ofc.

[LongRanger]

there's merely a one letter difference between rainfall and rainfail

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

I'm not sure what you're expecting out of a nino, like bomb cyclones twice a week or something?  We just got through with a solid week with multiple inches of precip.  It's been crap clouds with occasional drizzle since Saturday at least.  We're tracking precip for the upcoming weekend.  Our avg precip is like 4" a month, not 14".  

It’s more of we’re once again having a modeled wet pattern completely collapse overnight despite having a big precip event. See also the end of this past May.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Look upstairs. See my previous post. Not into what model caves to another or whatever, but there is definitely a legit fail mode for our region... Fail if you want rain ofc.

Eh personally I don't want a slippery game on Sunday 'cause rain games suck...so I'll root for the fail this time, lol

[ravensrule]

15 hours ago, Interstate said:

I have not had the AC in 3 weeks... Almost had to turn on the heat on this weekend.

Are you 90?

[WxUSAF]

6z euro AI jumped back north for the weekend rain and it’s ensembles even more so.

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z euro AI jumped back north for the weekend rain and it’s ensembles even more so.

WB EURO AI 6Z ensemble compared to 0Z ensemble for Sunday.

[Herb@MAWS]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z euro AI jumped back north for the weekend rain and it’s ensembles even more so.

…. and here I am planning Acadia Natl. Park for one of next 3 days (Oct 1, 2, 3). No big rain forecasts up here — I think. 

[kgottwald]

On 9/29/2026 at 12:18 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would say October snow is a good thing. In 2002, it snowed here in October 4x.. I had 125" that Winter, easily best of my lifetime. It snowed all the way until early May 2003, patterns tend to be longer term. 

We had an inch of snow on October 10, 1979. December was warm, but there were some okay snowfalls the rest of the winter. March 1 had eight inches and IAD's high was 17!!

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, Herb@MAWS said:

…. and here I am planning Acadia Natl. Park for one of next 3 days (Oct 1, 2, 3). No big rain forecasts up here — I think. 

Nice! DM me if you want recs... in-laws live near there. 

Otherwise, I am very in for cool/dry October. Give me rain in November and December when its not as nice to be outside.