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The weekend will start dry. However, rain will likely develop tomorrow night. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s with lower 80s possible in the warmest spots this weekend. A period of rain is likely Saturday night into early Sunday. The potential exists for 0.50" or more rainfall.

Highs could fall to the lower 70s for Monday and Tuesday before rebounding briefly toward 80° by mid-week. A fresh shot of cool air could arrive late in the week.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. 

The SOI was -28.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.897 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It did. The terrible attacks have left a scar that won’t ever fully heal.

My office window was right over West St looking right at the N tower. The glass fell like confetti, and as we departed the building onto Vesey, there were bodies all over the place. Saw things that will forever be etched in my mind. People jumping, hearing bodies hit the glass overhangs. Lost friends who were just getting their families started. I have struggled with PTSD, and subsequently was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. Unfortunately PD is not covered by the victims compensation fund. Very lucky to have gotten out. Never forget 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It did. The terrible attacks have left a scar that won’t ever fully heal.

Especially for those who lived through it.  Future generations will probably remember it like Pearl Harbor or Kennedy assassination I suppose.  For those that lived through it and actually witnessed it in real time it will always be there.

For me it is as vivid today as it was 25 years ago.  Absolute horror. 

I have not been able to watch any of the video from that day since the evening of 9/12/01.  That was the last time I viewed it.  Just can't do it.  To think what the people on those planes went through not to mention the people in the buildings.  

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2 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

My office window was right over West St looking right at the N tower. The glass fell like confetti, and as we departed the building onto Vesey, there were bodies all over the place. Saw things that will forever be etched in my mind. People jumping, hearing bodies hit the glass overhangs. Lost friends who were just getting their families started. I have struggled with PTSD, and subsequently was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. Unfortunately PD is not covered by the victims compensation fund. Very lucky to have gotten out. Never forget 

Horrible.  So sorry.

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Especially for those who lived through it.  Future generations will probably remember it like Pearl Harbor or Kennedy assassination I suppose.  For those that lived through it and actually witnessed it in real time it will always be there.
For me it is as vivid today as it was 25 years ago.  Absolute horror.

I’ll never forget driving over the Verizano bridge on September 12th on my way home from college in Maryland. Just me and mostly military vehicles. My dad was assistant director of security(port authority staff lieutenant) for the wtc from 91-99 when he retired. Almost died in the 93 bombing. I vividly remember him taking me to the giant crator inside the building after 93. He went on to become director of security for trinity church. He happened to be in midtown that day at a meeting. My mom was an American Airlines flight attendant and was grounded in Dallas. Just a monumental day for my family and me as I had no communication and thought both my parents were dead for a few hours. My favorite story is a friend who called in sick that day to surf the huge waves from hurricane Erin. He was an investment banker at cantor Fitzgerald on the 97th floor. I remember every second like it was yesterday. The winds, the smoke smell, the waves.


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On 9/10/2026 at 11:10 AM, bluewave said:

Both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a record Southeast ridge next week.

 

IMG_7565.thumb.jpeg.fb56f239f438767cbcda1bc698baf14d.jpeg

 

IMG_7566.thumb.jpeg.9483bf6c1731f78518bd479003503de6.jpeg

 

Probably nothing like what we had around this date in 1983. Did you check the records from 1983? That truly was the 4 month endless summer. June. July. August. September lol. The only other summers I can think of that were endless like that were 1991, 1993 and 2010. 2002 was very good too but I think that one ended in August like 1999 did.

 

This summer has really been near normal. Each month has been hot in the first half and cool in the second half.

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30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Probably nothing like what we had around this date in 1983. Did you check the records from 1983? That truly was the 4 month endless summer. June. July. August. September lol. The only other summers I can think of that were endless like that were 1991, 1993 and 2010. 2002 was very good too but I think that one ended in August like 1999 did.

 

This summer has really been near normal. Each month has been hot in the first half and cool in the second half.

Probably more mid 80s to perhaps around 90° by later next week at the usual warm spots. So a continuation of the endless summer pattern. Really impressive to see a near 600 dm ridge in September. Very difficult to get any sustained fall cooldowns beyond 3-4 days with such strong ridges.
 

IMG_7600.thumb.png.b8cb28851c576a369befab71622425f5.png

 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Probably nothing like what we had around this date in 1983. Did you check the records from 1983? That truly was the 4 month endless summer. June. July. August. September lol. The only other summers I can think of that were endless like that were 1991, 1993 and 2010. 2002 was very good too but I think that one ended in August like 1999 did.

 

This summer has really been near normal. Each month has been hot in the first half and cool in the second half.


You left off a few others 1983 had the most Sep 90 degree days then followed by 2010 , 2016 , 1993.  Depends on definition of endless summer.

EWR 90 degree days monthly break down

Rank Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total
1 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54
2T 1993 0 3 9 22 11 4 0 49
2T 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49
4 1988 0 1 10 15 17 0 0 43
5T 1991 0 8 10 9 12 2 0 41
5T 2002 4 1 5 16 14 1 0 41
5T 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41
8T 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40
8T 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40
10T 1994 1 1 10 16 9 2 0 39
10T 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39

 

 

All records:

 

Rank Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total 90°+
1 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54
2T 1993 0 3 9 22 11 4 0 49
2T 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49
4 1988 0 1 10 15 17 0 0 43
5T 1991 0 8 10 9 12 2 0 41
5T 2002 4 1 5 16 14 1 0 41
5T 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41
8T 1959 0 5 5 8 15 6 1 40
8T 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40
8T 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40
11T 1944 0 2 6 16 12 3 0 39
11T 1994 1 1 10 16 9 2 0 39
11T 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39
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71 / 60 clear now but clouds increase later and those mostly sunny forecasts may not be so great once to the afternoon.  Showers and storms/rain overnight into Sunday morning with the >0.10 rain in 10 days in this otherwise wet period.  Overall warmer than normal 9/11 - 9/17 with the warmest days barring onshore flow or clouds Wed-Fri this week as ridge builds to >590 DM and 850 MB temps >20c.  Beyond there back to normal and with high pressure closing off a low is a potential along the EC 9/18 - 9/22.  Then way out there D10 and beyond ridge looks to build east again.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1961)
NYC: 94 (1961)
LGA: 94 (1961)
JFK: 91 (1981)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1958)
NYC: 46 (1917)
LGA: 52 (1967)
JFK: 46 (1967)

Historical:


1775: The Independence Hurricane caught many fishing boats on the Grand Banks off Newfoundland Canada killing 4,000 seamen, most from Britain and Ireland. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1857: The SS Central America sinks during a hurricane, killing 425 lives. Fourteen tons of gold was aboard the ship as well.

1869: A hail storm between 1 and 3 AM broke windows and caused considerable damage to late vegetables at Madilia, MN in Watonwan County. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1882 - Hot and dry winds caused tree foliage in eastern Kansas to wither and crumble. (David Ludlum)

1921: The San Antonio River flooded, killing 51 people and causing millions of dollars in damages. The flood was caused by some of the heaviest rainfall ever recorded in Texas. A storm stalled over the town of Taylor and dumped an astounding 23.11 inches of rain on the area in less than a day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1944: The destroyer USS Warrington was sunk by the Great Atlantic Hurricane 300 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL. 247 men were lost in the tragedy. The hurricane would pass just east of the North Carolina Outer Banks and make landfall on the east end of Long Island, then pass into Rhode Island. The Great Atlantic hurricane was significant because it was the first storm in which forecasters had regular aircraft reconnaissance reports available. The success convinced the military of the value of reconnaissance and the program continued and evolved to what it is today. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1950: Hurricane Dog was the most intense hurricane in the 1950 Atlantic hurricane season. The fourth named storm of the season, Dog developed on August 30 to the east of Antigua; after passing through the northern Lesser Antilles, it turned to the north and intensified into a Category 5 hurricane. Dog reached its peak intensity with winds of 185 mph (300 km/h) over the open Atlantic and after weakening, it passed within 200 miles (320 km) of Cape Cod Hurricane Dog retains the record for longest continuous duration for a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane, although Hurricane Allen spent more total time as a Category 5. On September 4, Hurricane Dog was one of three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, along with Charlie and Easy. This is a rare occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean, and has only happened six times since 1950—in 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, 1998, and most recently in 2010. This also occurred on August 31 with Baker, Charlie and Dog. Additionally, Dog remains one of only three Category 5 hurricanes in the historical database to avoid land—the others were Easy and Cleo, both of which also occurred in the 1950s. Why was it called the Dog Hurricane? Hurricane naming began back in 1950, when meteorologists wanted to give tropical storms and hurricanes an easy name to remember them by, instead of just plain "Hurricane Six" or "Tropical Storm 8b". So, in 1950, the National Hurricane Center named hurricanes from the World War 2 phonetic alphabet. Hurricanes that year were given names such as "Dog", "Barker", "Item", and "Jig". And yes, these names did sound a little funny, that is probably why they only used these names until 1952. In the Hurricane Season of 1953, they tried a different approach - giving the hurricanes human names. They started out just using female names, and this lasted over 25 years until in 1979, men's names were incorporated into the list.

 

1950: A hailstorm struck southern parts of Oklahoma City on this day. The storm damaged about 4,000 homes, 300 businesses, and 750 cars, resulting in a loss estimated at $987,000.

1960: Hurricane Donna hits the Boston, MA area. Winds were recorded to 140 mph at the Blue Hills Observatory at Milton, MA and 130 mph at Block Island, RI. Donna was the first hurricane to affect every point along the east coast from Key West, FL to Caribou, ME. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)


1963: President Kennedy gave his, “We choose to go to the moon” speech at Rice University.

1974: Another three inches of snow fell at Scottsbluff, NE bringing the early season snowfall total to 3.8 inches. Saratoga, WY received 4 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1977 - Thunderstorms deluged the Kansas City area with torrential rains in the early morning hours, and then again that evening. Some places were deluged with more than six inches of rain twice that day, with up to 18 inches of rain reported at Independence MO. Flooding claimed the lives of 25 persons. The Country Club Plaza area was hardest hit. 2000 vehicles had to be towed following the storm, 150 of which had to be pulled out of Brush Creek, which runs through the Plaza area. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

1979 - Hurricane Frederick smashed into the Mobile Bay area of Alabama packing 132 mph winds. Winds gusts to 145 mph were reported as the eye of the hurricane moved over Dauphin Island AL, just west of Mobile. Frederick produced a fifteen foot storm surge near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The hurricane was the costliest in U.S. history causing 2.3 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1986: 6 to 12 inches of rain in three days resulted in record flooding from Muskegon, MI to Saginaw, MI. The flooding was worsened by the collapse of several dams. 10 people were killed and damage estimates approached $500 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain which caused flooding in North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Parts of Virginia received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just two hours early in the day. Later in the day, three to five inch rains deluged Cumberland County of south central Pennsylvania. Evening thunderstorms produced seven inches of rain at Marysville PA, most of which fell in three hours time. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - An afternoon tornado spawned a tornado which skipped across northern sections of Indianapolis IN damaging roofs and automobiles. It was the first tornado in central Indiana in September in nearly forty years of records. Hurricane Gilbert plowed across the island of Jamaica, and by the end of the day was headed for the Cayman Islands, packing winds of 125 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow whitened the mountains and foothills of northeastern Colorado, with eight inches reported at Buckhorn Mountain, west of Fort Collins. Two to three inches fell around Denver, causing great havoc during the evening rush hour. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region between mid afternoon and early the next morning. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Roswell NM, and wind gusts greater than 98 mph at Henryetta OK. Thunderstorms also produced torrential rains, with more than seven inches at Scotland TX, and more than six inches at Yukon OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1993: The high temperature in Fort Collins, CO was 94°. A strong cold front dropped the temperature overnight and by 10 a.m. the next morning, it was 33° with 3 inches of snow on the ground. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Hurricane Linda became the strongest storm recorded in the eastern Pacific with winds estimated at 180 mph and gusts to 218 mph. For a time it threatened to come ashore in California as a tropical storm, but the storm turned away, impacting the region only with added moisture for showers and thunderstorms. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Extremely dangerous Hurricane Floyd, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 145 mph, was making residents along the U.S. East Coast very nervous as it steamed steadily westward. The storm was 360 miles east of the Bahamas, causing hurricane warnings to be raised in the islands. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Hurricane Ike intensified from tropical storm to Category 3 status in less than nine hours on 3 September. A few days later, Ike crossed the Caribbean and waltzed across extreme western Cuba as a Cat 3. But Ike's peak winds never regained major-hurricane force. Instead, the system simply got bigger, eventually packing some of the largest radii of hurricane-force winds (125 miles) and tropical-storm force winds (275 miles) ever measured. This posed a major public communication challenge, as the vast swath of wind was expected to stir up a storm surge in the Galveston area far worse than people might presume from the storm's Category 2 rating. The worst of Ike's surge struck less-populated areas just east of Galveston Island on the night of 12-13 September, but the overall damage was still tremendous: more than $30 billion (in inflation-adjusted dollars, that's the third costliest U.S. hurricane on record). Much of Galveston and nearby coastal towns were left in shambles, and storm-surge damage extended well east into Louisiana. Ike resulted in 82 U.S. deaths--among the highest tolls in recent decades--and more than 200 people remain missing in the hurricane's aftermath. (Washington Post "Top Ten Weather Events of 2008")


2017: Cape Canaveral Air Force Station have to reopened on September 16th after IRMA of Cat 1 hurricane gave 75 MPH force winds from Hurricane Irma that lashed the Florida Space Coast on Sunday and Monday (Sept. 10/11) – forcing launch delays and leaving damaged and destroyed homes, buildings, infrastructure and launch viewing locations in its wake. Cape Canaveral Air Force Station military forces partially reopened certain critical runways soon after Irma swept by the space coast to assist in emergency recovery operations. The “Kennedy Space Center will resume normal operations Saturday, Sept. 16,” NASA announced.
Irma Data


2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph

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13 hours ago, MANDA said:

Horrible.  So sorry.

Ty. I’m a lucky man, I got to come home. I helped manage the derivatives risk book for Lehman Brothers. Myself, and two others had to sneak back into the building to download the firm’s risk profile. Pitch black, and a gaping hole where a beam had split the trading floor in half. 
 

PD is a very misunderstood disease. I was diagnosed 10 years ago, and it has progressed at a very slow pace. My biggest fight has been with the non motor symptoms like anxiety. 
 

Does it suck? Yes 

Will it kill me? No

I have a beautiful family that I had to be here for. My oldest is a police officer(25), and my youngest son(22) just sold his business for a very large sum of $. He, and future generations will have a very comfortable life. 
 

I am blessed 

apologies to the mods for me clogging up the board with my life story. 
 

It’s all good 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably more mid 80s to perhaps around 90° by later next week at the usual warm spots. So a continuation of the endless summer pattern. Really impressive to see a near 600 dm ridge in September. Very difficult to get any sustained fall cooldowns beyond 3-4 days with such strong ridges.
 

IMG_7600.thumb.png.b8cb28851c576a369befab71622425f5.png

 

Mid 80's for mid September is not a endless summer.It's 10 degrees above normal. Happens every September. Now low to mid 90's is unusual

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You had me at hello 

NWS Upton 

A southern stream shortwave passing over the area late tonight
into Sunday morning with will tap into a tropical airmass (can
see this plume of moisture on GOES-EAST Water Vapor over the
southeast) with PWATs increasing to 2-2.3" by early Sunday
morning. A warm front will also approach the area and
potentially set up somewhere over the coast/Long Island on
Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure may also track
along the warm front. These ingredients will lead to showers
with heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms late tonight into
Sunday morning.
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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably more mid 80s to perhaps around 90° by later next week at the usual warm spots. So a continuation of the endless summer pattern. Really impressive to see a near 600 dm ridge in September. Very difficult to get any sustained fall cooldowns beyond 3-4 days with such strong ridges.
 

IMG_7600.thumb.png.b8cb28851c576a369befab71622425f5.png

 

This ongoing and still strengthening El-Nino has allowed the 2026 tropical season (Pacific and Atlantic) to follow the Nino playbook to the letter and then some.  If the coming Fall and Winter follow the Nino playbook as well as the tropical season has it is going to be a rough season for many in this sub forum.  I'm taking an expect the worst and hope for the best approach.

I think above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures (DJF) are pretty much a lock.  We need to hope for a wet system to time itself with whatever cold air we can muster.  Maybe we get a "big one" that way?  Might be a big ask though.

Maybe a more Modoki El-Nino can better save the day but think that is also a big ask.

We'll see how we progress through Fall and go from there but keep expectations low.  I suspect most sensible winter weather lovers are bracing for the reality that this Winter might suck.

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43 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yeah, not so sure one is needed for this upcoming event.  Seems a bit over zealous.  Then again we've had a lot of local over performers this season.

each previous event makes the next one more likely to cause problems

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42 minutes ago, MANDA said:

This ongoing and still strengthening El-Nino has allowed the 2026 tropical season (Pacific and Atlantic) to follow the Nino playbook to the letter and then some.  If the coming Fall and Winter follow the Nino playbook as well as the tropical season has it is going to be a rough season for many in this sub forum.  I'm taking an expect the worst and hope for the best approach.

I think above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures (DJF) are pretty much a lock.  We need to hope for a wet system to time itself with whatever cold air we can muster.  Maybe we get a "big one" that way?  Might be a big ask though.

Maybe a more Modoki El-Nino can better save the day but think that is also a big ask.

We'll see how we progress through Fall and go from there but keep expectations low.  I suspect most sensible winter weather lovers are bracing for the reality that this Winter might suck.

The problem with trying to predict the winter season is there are a few other things to consider . One being the negative PDO - will it persist into the winter months ??? . Next is the Polar Vortex. - how will that behave ?. Another issue is the lack of melting in the Arctic region and Greenland this summer - 2 important cold air sources. Way too early to make any final winter forecasts.

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4 hours ago, FPizz said:

They toss them out like Halloween candy.  I was thinking the same thing.

 

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

They toss them out like Halloween candy.  I was thinking the same thing.

 

3 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

You had me at hello 

NWS Upton 

A southern stream shortwave passing over the area late tonight
into Sunday morning with will tap into a tropical airmass (can
see this plume of moisture on GOES-EAST Water Vapor over the
southeast) with PWATs increasing to 2-2.3" by early Sunday
morning. A warm front will also approach the area and
potentially set up somewhere over the coast/Long Island on
Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure may also track
along the warm front. These ingredients will lead to showers
with heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms late tonight into
Sunday morning.

 

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

each previous event makes the next one more likely to cause problems

At the moment Accuweather has Central Park receiving 2.28 between 2 and 12 noon. Sunday. As always ….

 

IMG_2554.png

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6 hours ago, SACRUS said:


You left off a few others 1983 had the most Sep 90 degree days then followed by 2010 , 2016 , 1993.  Depends on definition of endless summer.

EWR 90 degree days monthly break down

Rank Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total
1 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54
2T 1993 0 3 9 22 11 4 0 49
2T 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49
4 1988 0 1 10 15 17 0 0 43
5T 1991 0 8 10 9 12 2 0 41
5T 2002 4 1 5 16 14 1 0 41
5T 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41
8T 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40
8T 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40
10T 1994 0 1 9 15 11 3 0 39
10T 2025 0 0 13 12 11 3 0 39

Are you sure we had 11 90-degree days in August last year? I remember the summer suddenly ending after 7/31. I think that should be a one, not 11.

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17 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Are you sure we had 11 90-degree days in August last year? I remember the summer suddenly ending after 7/31. I think that should be a one, not 11.


Formatting got hosed, good catch.  Here is the rightly aligned list

EWR 1980 - presnet

Rank Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total
1 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54
2T 1993 0 3 9 22 11 4 0 49
2T 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49
4 1988 0 1 10 15 17 0 0 43
5T 1991 0 8 10 9 12 2 0 41
5T 2002 4 1 5 16 14 1 0 41
5T 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41
8T 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40
8T 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40
10T 1994 1 1 10 16 9 2 0 39
10T 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39

 

EWR full record most 90 days in September:

 

Rank Year September 90°+ days
1 1961 9
2 1983 7
3T 1959 6
3T 2010 6
5T 1970 5
5T 1973 5
5T 2015 5
5T 2016 5
9T 1952 4
9T 1993 4
9T 2005 4
9T 2018 4
9T 2023 4
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