Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[weatherwiz]

Might start a thread for Monday - Wednesday (with a focus on Wednesday) just because I feel like it and people can post their feels about how they won't get anything 

[FXWX]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might start a thread for Monday - Wednesday (with a focus on Wednesday) just because I feel like it and people can post their feels about how they won't get anything 

Go get them Wiz!!! 

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks like another dry cold fropa.

Huge COC tomorrow. Dews well into the 40s up here. Dare I say fall-like in the morning?

It’s been fall up here for the last week and a half. It’s coming. 

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Pretty rainy summer for southern half of Southern New England

9.78” at WXW1 since July 1. Just incredible rainfall in southern CT, but it’s been your year. Big snows, big storms, big rains…

 

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks like another dry cold fropa.

Huge COC tomorrow. Dews well into the 40s up here. Dare I say fall-like in the morning?

Of course, though we got all of 0.03" last evening, along with a near miss TS that terrorized our dog.  We've had 5 rain events in the past 2 weeks for a grand total of 0.18".   drip, drip, drip

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might start a thread for Monday - Wednesday (with a focus on Wednesday) just because I feel like it and people can post their feels about how they won't get anything 

Just post it saying SW CT bullseye and you'll be right.

[Hailstoned]

10 hours ago, vortex95 said:

You are being specific as to why a given change occurs, when I was talking in only in general about how it is nothing new for name changes and how they are more common than many think.  Your statement is non-sequitur argument.

And your statement is selective outrage, as I noted in my initial post was likely occurring/occurred  Again, I was only talking in general and giving a bunch of historical examples about location name changes and how many administrations have done it...factual.

The implied deriding statement "opus of factuality" is an ad hominem attack/poisoning the well statement.

I suggest you avoid committing logical fallacies in your statements if you want to have a reasonable discussion.  I said my post was not political, and you turned it into one.  I stuck w/ facts..
 

Yer gettin all sequiter about something thrown out there, rather tongue in cheekquiter. This is because there's no reasonable discussion to be had of our now poisoned Well of Ontario.

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Pretty rainy summer for southern half of Southern New England

Really the south coast within about 30 miles ish 

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might start a thread for Monday - Wednesday (with a focus on Wednesday) just because I feel like it and people can post their feels about how they won't get anything 

Congrats DXR southwest 

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might start a thread for Monday - Wednesday (with a focus on Wednesday) just because I feel like it and people can post their feels about how they won't get anything 

Congrats NJ to DXR

[CoastalWx]

I honestly cannot recall a more boring summer. Been great weather overall, just boring AF. At least locally.

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats DXR southwest 

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Congrats NJ to DXR

Ultimately, I can see two corridors, one from SW CT into NJ and a second across NY into northwest MA/VT...this area could have potentially greater severe probabilities and tornado threat, especially if that LLJ ramps up a bit earlier than forecast  

[bairn]

Hi guys, hate to interrupt, but my daughter’s getting married 9/5 in Sterling Ct. Ryan’s 10 day looks good, but any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Cheers

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, bairn said:

Hi guys, hate to interrupt, but my daughter’s getting married 9/5 in Sterling Ct. Ryan’s 10 day looks good, but any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Cheers

Looks like High Pressure building in late next week behind the passage of the front late Wednesday which would bode well for a dry weekend

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Ultimately, I can see two corridors, one from SW CT into NJ and a second across NY into northwest MA/VT...this area could have potentially greater severe probabilities and tornado threat, especially if that LLJ ramps up a bit earlier than forecast  

No reason to break the summer pattern. Those two zones locked in , in May and has been relentless with each front 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No reason to break the summer pattern. Those two zones locked in , in May and has been relentless with each front 

Well the structure of the pattern is a bit different this go around with the core of the ridging a bit farther north and east so this bodes well for NY into New England. There will be lots of details to iron out too. For example, there will be a weak stationary front within the region which will be the boundary between unseasonably warm/humid weather versus cooler and less humid. This will be critical because this will establish the instability gradient. Secondly, the real big question is EML advection and can we maintain an EML into the region. 

[Cyclone-68]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly cannot recall a more boring summer. Been great weather overall, just boring AF. At least locally.

With not even an average hurricane season to distract us…You could theoretically walk across the ITCZ right now without even encountering a cloud 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well the structure of the pattern is a bit different this go around with the core of the ridging a bit farther north and east so this bodes well for NY into New England. There will be lots of details to iron out too. For example, there will be a weak stationary front within the region which will be the boundary between unseasonably warm/humid weather versus cooler and less humid. This will be critical because this will establish the instability gradient. Secondly, the real big question is EML advection and can we maintain an EML into the region. 

Assume all will be negative north and east of HFD

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

With not even an average hurricane season to distract us…You could theoretically walk across the ITCZ right now without even encountering a cloud 

shouldn't be a surprise to anyone-another year without a US hit coming unless there's homebrew at some point

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly cannot recall a more boring summer. Been great weather overall, just boring AF. At least locally.

If you applied this statement to 90% of our seasons since 2011 it’d be accurate. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly cannot recall a more boring summer. Been great weather overall, just boring AF. At least locally.

My last post on the tropics was a post-mortem on Hurricane Milton on October 10th, 2024.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-verification-devil-is.html

All you need to know.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My past post on the tropics was a post-mortem on Hurricane Milton on October 10th, 2024.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-verification-devil-is.html

All you need to know.

Been a minute since we’ve had something to really talk about, but of course, ‘17-‘25 (added 2025 because of the behemoth that was Melissa) was a pace we couldn’t sustain much longer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Been a minute since we’ve had something to really talk about, but of course, ‘17-‘25 (added 2025 because of the behemoth that was Melissa) was a pace we couldn’t sustain much longer. 

Yea, it was feverish pace for several years...used the opportunity to dig deeper on winter seasonal stuff and hone my methods.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly cannot recall a more boring summer. Been great weather overall, just boring AF. At least locally.

Fitting, as it follows the biggest bundle of meh that was 2025, probably the most boring since moving here in 1998.  Maybe 1991 or 92 in Gardiner was equally meh, or 1973, our first year in Maine.  (NNJ had an even higher meh rate, of course - at least since the 1956-61 pile of big snowstorms.)