Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[vortex95]

Saw this for the Mid-Atlantic.  First they issued a large SVR box, then 25 min later a "nested" TOR box.  I don't recall ever seeing this before.  Has it occurred though?
 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

The "barrier" is in place.
 

 

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...you're not getting anything going in that. When those two waves the NHC flagged last week crapped the bed that was a tell tale sign of where things stand. Environmental conditions aren't going to be getting any better either. 

Now folks may look at that and say we gotta watch the Gulf and northern Caribbean for home brew, but it should be noted the shear is only weak there because of the large scale ridging. Once that breaks down and we get troughs and fronts digging into the southern states that will change. 

I mean…what can you say  

Hopefully I can get the peak season forecast done tonight. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, vortex95 said:

Saw this for the Mid-Atlantic.  First they issued a large SVR box, then 25 min later a "nested" TOR box.  I don't recall ever seeing this before.  Has it occurred though?
 

Yeah I don’t recall seeing anything like that—certainly not recently in the east. 

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I don’t recall seeing anything like that—certainly not recently in the east. 

It just seems that it could have been a TOR N side, and the S side a SVR given the tor probs.

[weatherwiz]

I would be willing to bet that was planned that way. Goal was to get the SVR out first and then hone down on an area where combination of ingredients overlapped most for a tornado risk. Probably why the time delay between the two...discussion on the SVR with local offices and then discussion on the area for the tornado watch 

[Chrisrotary12]

This made me chuckle: 

[vortex95]

55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would be willing to bet that was planned that way. Goal was to get the SVR out first and then hone down on an area where combination of ingredients overlapped most for a tornado risk. Probably why the time delay between the two...discussion on the SVR with local offices and then discussion on the area for the tornado watch 

It can be confusing to the public and emergency management.  They have procedures in place when a SVR box is issued, and then 25 min later a TOR?  Just not very efficient.  Some may ask, does it mean anything to have "both" at the same time?  This is valid question for the non-met!  And what about watch box stats for a given area?

Just have two discrete boxes issued at the same time.  N area TOR and S area SVR in this case.

[powderfreak]

41 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Saw this for the Mid-Atlantic.  First they issued a large SVR box, then 25 min later a "nested" TOR box.  I don't recall ever seeing this before.  Has it occurred though?
 

Inside the danger zone is the Armageddon zone, ha.  That’s how the public reads that.

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It can be confusing to the public and emergency management.  They have procedures in place when a SVR box is issued, and then 25 min later a TOR?  Just not very efficient.  Some may ask, does it mean anything to have "both" at the same time?  This is valid question for the non-met!  And what about watch box stats for a given area?

Just have two discrete boxes issued  at the same time.  N area TOR and S area SVR in this case.

I'd be curious if something similar has happened before...I would think it has (just not very common). This would be a good question for @OceanStWx

I actually kind of like this and this falls in line with the new modifications to the SPC outlooks. As we become more knowledgeable in the area of severe weather and with advancements in technology and modelling I think it's a great idea to be able to try and narrow down areas of "greatest" potential within an overall larger area.

I agree it can be confusing to emergency management and the public but this is where educating and communicating to emergency management and the public becomes critical. 

[ineedsnow]

56 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I mean…what can you say  

Hopefully I can get the peak season forecast done tonight. 

Semi interesting EPS run 

[vortex95]

Got this in College Park MD a short time ago.  @CoastalWx can't get anything remotely close to this in Weymouth this year!  
 

[kdxken]

19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Semi interesting EPS run 

 

[vortex95]

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Inside the danger zone is the Armageddon zone, ha.  That’s how the public reads that.

I see you are thinking in the abstract like me, and I did not even think like that here!   

MSM or random social media hype-master be like:

"FIRST TIME EV-A a tornado watch has been issued INSIDE a severe watch!!!"

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

 

The "barrier" reigns supreme.  I am not sure the global models always fully acknowledge this wind shear barrier, esp. in the longer range.  Yes, they may fcst it to wane, but no reason to think it will given how strong El Nino is.
 

[vortex95]

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Inside the danger zone is the Armageddon zone, ha.  That’s how the public reads that.

 

[CoastalWx]

50 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Got this in College Park MD a short time ago.  @CoastalWx can't get anything remotely close to this in Weymouth this year!  
 

Meh

[JACKASS]

.42 in just about an hour.

[ineedsnow]

56 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

The "barrier" reigns supreme.  I am not sure the global models always fully acknowledge this wind shear barrier, esp. in the longer range.  Yes, they may fcst it to wane, but no reason to think it will given how strong El Nino is.
 

Ya nothing is forming with that look 

[JACKASS]

Last Sunday.

[dendrite]

Congrats CT

[CoastalWx]

Looks like central CT to maybe Bristol and Plymouth counties may line up for decent rain. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Last Sunday.

Why aren’t you wearing a shirt there, and why does it look like you’re playing a guitar with that board?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why aren’t you wearing a shirt there, and why does it look like you’re playing a guitar with that board?

Is he Jim Duggan?

[Damage In Tolland]

What a torch !

[JACKASS]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why aren’t you wearing a shirt there, and why does it look like you’re playing a guitar with that board?

I’m behind the camera, genius.

[JACKASS]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a torch !

You live in Boston now?!

Christ, you move almost daily!!

[vortex95]

W/ the RRFS going operational in Oct, I asked about how it handles TCs.  Got this reply:

RRFS isn't specifically designed to handle hurricanes well, but the hourly data assimilation and the model dynamics (which handles rotational modes well) mean it should at least handle them okay.  But I would certainly defer to HAFS forecasts for hurricanes.  

Important info given it is a new model.  Just have to be careful here and see how it does overall and what its biases are.  And this prevents more @CoastalWxfrom the "GARBAGE MODEL" label he likes so much!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Deluge going on here right now.

[JACKASS]

7 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

You live in Boston now?!

Christ, you move almost daily!!

This you now?

Cousin dit?

[Chrisrotary12]

Did I miss something? What is Vortex’s fascination with tagging Coastal on everything?