Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

[Chrisrotary12]

It appears to be raining 

[512high]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It appears to be raining 

63F/  .29" so far.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

0.47. A far cry from what most models were showing.

There were a ton of red flags with this, which, unsurprisingly, ended up panning out.

We knew 

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe 1/4” here so far 

Up to about 0.7”

[BrianW]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m so tired of these failed rain events. It’s so dry around here 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

 4.41” yesterday 

[codfishsnowman]

We have had some good rain this morning so maybe l spoke too soon

lm only expecting an inch or a little more

[kdxken]

Pouring now.

[vortex95]

22 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stein blaming the bust on lack of weather balloons. 

 

RAOBs (wx balloons) missing is a weak argument these days.  Ppl need to get out of the legacy mindsets and get w/ the times.

RAOBs are not as super critical as they once where.  You have so many other sounding-type data available now, both in situ and remote, like ACARS data from aircraft and NUCAPS soundings several times a day over the CONUS alone from the VIIRS polar orbiters.  And we have GOES imagery that updates for the CONUS every 5 min and 4 mesoscale sectors that update every min.  Also, a full disk sector every 10 min.  Prior to 2016, it was only every 15 min for the CONUS and only once every 3 hr for a full disk.  The sampling of the atmosphere over the CONUS and the GOES footprint is way higher now than 10 years ago, both in spatial and temporal restitution!

When the next generation GOES-E and W satellites went into operation in 2016 and 2017, respectively, the number of GOES channels went from 5 to 16. It all goes well beyond the basic IR, VIS, and WV channels now to get a significantly better picture of the atmosphere.

85% of all model data globally comes from various types of polar orbiter satellites, and they measure/sample a lot more than just clouds.

And those "missing" RAOBs site you see at 12z, almost all of them are taken at 18z instead.  Yes, not ideal, but we do run 18z models now, so they are not going to "waste."  Who's to say 18z model runs for the CONUS are not somewhat better now at the expense of the 12z?  It may be a wash or so little difference, it does not matter.

I am not saying RAOBs are not still valuable, they are, but some ppl can't resist drama, stirring the pot, and complaining for clicks/like/attention, among other things, these days and sometimes are disingenuous, as in knowing what I said above about other sources than RAOBs, but leaving it out for "engagement/rage bait."
 

[Great Snow 1717]

8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

2-3ft here….not even a dusting in Methuen. Good thing it’s not 5-6 months from now. 

....we'll play a bit of catch up today BUT it is the equivalent of being down 56-0 at the half ....with the final score being 70-14..

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

....we'll play a bit of catch up today BUT it is the equivalent of being down 56-0 at the half ....with the final score being 70-14..

Or getting "only" 18" of "white rain" in Weymouth instead of the 24" fcst?!

[CoastalWx]

Decent small drop rains. Shoukd get a drink today. 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m so tired of these failed rain events. It’s so dry around here 

Let’s dry up the well!

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m so tired of these failed rain events. It’s so dry around here 

You’ve had way more than me in the last couple of events. You’re fine.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s dry up the well!

Is what it is. Models were garbage though. Looks like whatever light rain we’re getting now is almost done and will lift north. We’ll finish with about a half inch 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is what it is. Models were garbage though. Looks like whatever light rain we’re getting now is almost done and will lift north. We’ll finish with about a half inch 

You have another half inch to inch to go. Just give the third wife a hug.

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Or getting "only" 18" of "white rain" in Weymouth instead of the 24" fcst?!

...make sure you tune in to the "As Methuen Turns" during the winter months...

[HoarfrostHubb]

0.75” since midnight

much appreciated 

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s dry up the well!

Wife is going to leave him for a guy with a 250ft deep Artesian

[dendrite]

Not looking good for rain up here but models have been poor. Hoping for a 0.10” prayer, but the webbed hands are starting to reach in like they did last July. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You got 2” on the 4th? 

No  had .12 on the 2nd too

[Great Snow 1717]

9 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

2-3ft here….not even a dusting in Methuen. Good thing it’s not 5-6 months from now. 

...the only thing that is missing in this setup is the follow up storm that drops another 12-18 inches from the pike south while methuen gets a couple of wind blown flurries...

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m so tired of these failed rain events. It’s so dry around here 

Models nailed the south coast 4 to 6 you will get an inch. You in winter meh mode?

[SouthCoastMA]

0.56" so far

heavier rain just to my south, which has been the theme for the past 18 hours. This batch should reach me though, so expecting about 1"+