Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

[weatherwiz]

Noah almost cancelled his plans in Heaven to come down and build an arc when he saw all these crazy ensembles and high extreme forecasts index. Good thing he decided not too

[powderfreak]

6am tomorrow… long way to go.

[Cyclone-68]

I suspect that map is well overdone around here but I’d like to be wrong 

[weathafella]

I know you see this every event winter and summer.  The first pulse stays south of the MA/CT border and the 2nd one floods many who are shocked despite guidance clearly showing the trend for days.

[OrangeCTWX]

Islip area has to be getting rocked with now based on radar.  Curious if that stuff makes its way up here later.

[WinterWolf]

Been raining moderate to heavy for the last couple hrs…quite the soaker here…with quite a bit more to come if modeling has any clue. We take.  

[BrianW]

Nice band from HVN east along 95. That stuff over LI is slowing moving north towards BDR as well. 

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Noah almost cancelled his plans in Heaven to come down and build an arc when he saw all these crazy ensembles and high extreme forecasts index. Good thing he decided not too

In all fairness, Lots of us south of Hartford in CT are gonna end up with 3-4” plus if this goes all night.  I realize there’s quite the cut off north of CT boarder…but South of that it’s adding up. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

In all fairness, Lots of us south of Hartford in CT are gonna end up with 3-4” plus if this goes all night.  I realize there’s quite the cut off north of CT boarder…South of that it’s adding up. 

Radar seems to be filling in a bit and that I-84 weenie band has legs

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In all fairness, Lots of us south of Hartford in CT are gonna end up with 3-4” plus if this goes all night.  I realize there’s quite the cut off north of CT boarder…but South of that it’s adding up. 

Yeah but nothing near the widespread 4-6/5-7" that was floating around on some of the guidance. And the overall flooding risk seems relatively low...I don't think the moderate was necessarily needed by the WPC. This was a long drawn out steady rain (and kind of in chunks). Will be worse off to our south. Definitely a much needed rain for sure but overall this was below a much more concerning flooding risk 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Radar seems to be filling in a bit and that I-84 weenie band has legs

I think some folks are getting ahead of themselves, and thinking it’s over shortly. As Jerry said…just like with the winter storms. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think some folks are getting ahead of themselves, and thinking it’s over shortly. As Jerry said…just like with the winter storms. 

yeah this goes all night and into the morning.     also note the band over LI beginning to move north...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I know you see this every event winter and summer.  The first pulse stays south of the MA/CT border and the 2nd one floods many who are shocked despite guidance clearly showing the trend for days.

I hope you’re right. We desperately need the rain here. I’m not convinced this is a widespread thing east of CT. A lot of model runs over the last few days have had a CT soaker and kind of tapered it off into southern RI.

I could see this ending up as a few pulses of downpours where we end up around an inch

[dendrite]

+1

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not great weather for the pool, but I was able to mow the lawn and the contractor is getting his work done in the attic today

[CT Valley Snowman]

Looks like cloae to .65 near my house.  Definitely north of the best action. 

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

+1

For me . The rain was desperately needed 

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah this goes all night and into the morning.     also note the band over LI beginning to move north...

This  should be over for W CT before morning . Maybe leftover shower. ENE may linger into the morning but even there it winds down tomorrow pm 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's like two things are true simultaneously.

The system is going to prove too amplified by leading guidance.  But, where it rains... because of other factors the rain gets exaggerated - not because of the same amplitude of the model cinemas ...

So of course everyone's going to credit the wrong shit.

[WinterWolf]

Good thing we have you to show us the light on these type of set ups. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good thing we have you to show us the light on these type of set ups. 

You got it !!

[Typhoon Tip]

What's up with these operational Euro and GFS just wildly gung ho happy capping summer the rest of the way.  ah, okay -

'course, they tried selling that shit last month and we ended up with a heat wave for the trouble, so we'll see.  But they keep carving out these anachronistic SPV bombs across S Canada - right at the climate-signaled pattern flaccidity time of the year, no less.   The Euro's even trying to suppress summer in the west after their heat wave next week...suppressing summer down to TX

But Europe's dead meet in ensembles.  wow.  The same exact bizarre repeating Omega block is now showing up from for the UK down the Iberian Peninsula.  In fact, it looks even more idealized than the previous for a week from now.

[OrangeCTWX]

2.52 inches so far. More to come as well. 

[Typhoon Tip]

[ineedsnow]

48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not great weather for the pool, but I was able to mow the lawn and the contractor is getting his work done in the attic today

 last week I saw some guys roofing in the middle of the afternoon pretty sure it was the same day that guy was in your attic.. the hottest day of the few.. I couldn't believe it and was like no fooking way 

[Brian5671]

heavy rain moving back in here from the sound

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

heavy rain moving back in here from the sound

Radar starting to blossom a bit.. should be a good rain event for most of CT

[weathafella]

18z NAM gives me 4”. 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Radar starting to blossom a bit.. should be a good rain event for most of CT

Yes sir. SOAKER. 

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 last week I saw some guys roofing in the middle of the afternoon pretty sure it was the same day that guy was in your attic.. the hottest day of the few.. I couldn't believe it and was like no fooking way 

Roofing blows to begin with. I pride myself on never having quit a job. Did roofing one summer in high school and was damn close.