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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7


WxWatcher007
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BDR 1.23" so far as of 4am.   Radar has the look CoastalWx *hates* in the winter b/c he knows there will be a sharp line between S+ and "diamond dust!"  And the 06z HRRR squishes things S more.  00Z RRFS was more N, but lacks the crazy QPF.

HRRR shows some mesoscale thingee forming in ern LI Sound and tracking E.  That has the big QPF but largely stays offshore except for MVY/ACK.  Also, half-decent backlash comma head pcpn at the end.

Sfc only low goes from 1015 to 1009 mb, but is tight/coherent and sets up a small solid gradient along the S Coast and CC.  Wind pretty good for July.  Sustained max 25G40KT shown front end and 30G45KT max in the rear GON-CQX-PYM.  Li'l July Nor'easter!

06z 3/12km NAMs way N.  So fcst uncertainty quite high still, esp. given the event is already underway.
 

radar1.PNG

hrrr.png

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Damn it, I forgot to cover the grill before bed last night after making burgers :axe: 

It'll be fine, sometimes I wonder if covers are more a hassle than they are worth.  They also become a bee haven.

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19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Think later this afternoon and tonight will be wild for some

IDK This really doesn't seem all that impressive nor does it look like it is going to evolve to be so. Just a good ole fashion steady, soaking rain. Highest totals probably end up coastal CT/Long Island. Congrats to the Fish in the Sound

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16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All I know is the 4 CT northern counties especially northern halves,  are dry to very dry . There’s been less than 3” of rain since June 1 in most places . With wagons mainly south on guidance today , I still think coastal CT down to Philly are going to be where any issues might be with coastal CT being less at risk than NYC to Philly/ SE PA.

I don't know about you but last 2 days 1.61 .

Also See Legro post :wub:

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53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK This really doesn't seem all that impressive nor does it look like it is going to evolve to be so. Just a good ole fashion steady, soaking rain. Highest totals probably end up coastal CT/Long Island. Congrats to the Fish in the Sound

12z HRRR going wild in some spots

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