Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Then we had July 2018 when the GFS was trying to paint 110s in the region with the overmixing. Ended up being high 90s over mid 70s dews. Pick your poison there.

Right.

altho, that version of the GFS was actually demoted by the following spring I think.   I thought that was 2017 tho?    meh either way. 

It seems like there was new GFS version ever 18 months between 2015 and 2022

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Those who know, does that complex coming out of Canada make it into eastern SNE for later this afternoon/evening?  Does it hold together like that storm that barged across the Midwest yesterday?

Probably more for ALB/WNE...can't rule out convection in eastern sections later though.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Probably more for ALB/WNE...can't rule out convection in eastern sections later though.

yeah that complex is going to ride the instability gradient. outflow def could fire stuff up farther east

[Cyclone-68]

Severe t storm watch for western NE. As Wiz has said hopefully more will fire east later tonight

including “this is a destructive storm” for a warning area is kinda new verbiage to me 

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Probably more for ALB/WNE...can't rule out convection in eastern sections later though.

 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

That thunderstorm complex in Canada looks even better than it did this morning 

Will it turn left?

[kdxken]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Destructive tag for the storm throttling Watertown right now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah that complex is going to ride the instability gradient. outflow def could fire stuff up farther east

I think we're getting clocked ...   big wind potential mcs

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Destructive tag for the storm throttling Watertown right now. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

well hell if this doesn't confirm what I just said to Wiz

  DISCUSSION...Volumetric radar data from KTYX indicate a bow echo
   with a well-defined rear-inflow jet moving southeast at around 50
   kt. Extrapolation of current motion takes the bow echo to the
   vicinity of Watertown, NY, between 1:00-1:30 PM EDT. Visible
   satellite imagery shows considerable mid/upper-level cloudiness and
   some elevated convection ahead of the MCS across the Tug Hill
   region; however, stronger heating is occurring across the Finger
   Lakes and far western NY with latest objective analysis indicating
   MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Persistent westerly low-level flow will
   advect that more unstable air mass into the region ahead of the MCS.

Thing is, these things tend to expand.  I may turn right.. not sure, but I could see an outflow arc evolving with growth along it doing that curl and that would probably end up near ORH later this evening.

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Destructive tag for the storm throttling Watertown right now. 

I watched a live webcam from Watertown but was pretty meh for the most part.. storms firing just west of here now.. hoping for something

[Damage In Tolland]

That thing will go right down HRV into NNJ and NYC . Likely Jack Dick for SNE 

[Cyclone-68]

25 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Will it turn left?

I’m distinctly non partisan when it comes to t storms lol 

[Cyclone-68]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I watched a live webcam from Watertown but was pretty meh for the most part.. storms firing just west of here now.. hoping for something

I did that a little earlier too and like yourself nothing remarkable going on except rain 

[weatherwiz]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think we're getting clocked ...   big wind potential mcs

gotta say...its a bit more unstable than models were forecasting in our region today 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I did that a little earlier too and like yourself nothing remarkable going on except rain 

Damage reports came in just north of town.

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That thing will go right down HRV into NNJ and NYC . Likely Jack Dick for SNE 

yeah, never was ours. Just hope someone west gets mowed down....next

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

gotta say...its a bit more unstable than models were forecasting in our region today 

Looks like its starting to turn a bit

[OceanStWx]

I watch trends on the MUCAPE or 850 dews. It's been riding the 2000 J/kg or +16C isodrosotherm.

That isn't forecast to make a concerted push into SNE.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks like its starting to turn a bit

Will be interesting to see how this progresses because the stronger instability will continue building east towards the CT River along with the ridge building too

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I watch trends on the MUCAPE or 850 dews. It's been riding the 2000 J/kg or +16C isodrosotherm.

That isn't forecast to make a concerted push into SNE.

ahhhh...I was just thinking about this earlier and if it was MLCAPE or MUCAPE to follow...couldn't remember

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I watch trends on the MUCAPE or 850 dews. It's been riding the 2000 J/kg or +16C isodrosotherm.

That isn't forecast to make a concerted push into SNE.

HRRR has it getting into the HV and western CT before falling apart....

[weatherwiz]

Nice core on that Belchertown cell. 60dbz to 20K on BOX 

[codfishsnowman]

Well we're off to the races here in death valley, both cef and bdl reached 90 so day 1 is in the books

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nice core on that Belchertown cell. 60dbz to 20K on BOX 

There's the warning 

[dendrite]

Dendy is now installed 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Destructive tag for the storm throttling Watertown right now. 

My dad is camping up there and had to abandon his campsite in advance of the storm. Fortunately his weather radio worked out in the wilderness. 

[OceanStWx]

My one caution flag I have is that these things tend to follow the warm advection wing, and that's where all the convection is percolating into the CT valley. 

I still expect the apex to turn more south than southeast.

[Chrisrotary12]

0 for 1 on convective attempts here. Wish we upstate NY.