Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Guidance shows 80-81

MOS/NBM are 76/77. 

But I'll say they get to 78

[Chrisrotary12]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The one modeled 

Which model?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

MOS/NBM are 76/77. 

But I'll say they get to 78

Hi res is higher 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Which model?

RRFS, MSSL, ARW

[weatherwiz]

It's going to be an interesting afternoon I think in terms of convective development. Have to watch this area here. Not a ton going on right now but the NAM seems to blossom from this. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah..that'll be a fun test tonight and more likely tomorrow night.  Do the climo-favored warm nocturnal therm sites hold 80+ ?

It seems to me that's a tough one.  It happens from time to time, but it seems more usual to end up with a 5 minute, 78.4 or 79.4 blip on an otherwise 80 80 80 ... 80 score card.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's going to be an interesting afternoon I think in terms of convective development. Have to watch this area here. Not a ton going on right now but the NAM seems to blossom from this. 

I could be wrong about this, but I doubt it means much down here.

Perhaps NNE... but even there, the building heights that begin the main surge today, that's a neg interference.   

We'll see. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I could be wrong about this, but I doubt it means much down here.

Perhaps NNE... but even there, the building heights that begin the main surge today, that's a neg interference.   

We'll see. 

I am really curious to see how it unfolds. I totally agree the rising heights are a big negative in this, on the other hand, if we are pushing MLCAPE values >2500-3000 J and get any sort of subtle energy rotating through aloft, is even subtle energy enough to set things off? I think that's why I'm intrigued in this. If we were dealing with MLCAPE that was only like 1500 I probably wouldn't be as intrigued. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's actually not that convective element up there the NAM's using.  It's actually just erupting a smattering of convection over and E of the Tug Hill country of N NYS, from diurnal instability, and then quasi converting the mass of it all into a very steeply arc tan angled right turn. 

I don't wanna trash the idea of some convective response today, entirely.  The NAM used to be the ETA, and when it was the ETA, it was a superior ( lesser known) skilled tool for convective initiation.  Basically, it's QPF smatters that we largely think of as noise tended to be eerily on point.  I've never look to see if the NAM may have inherited that same trait - might be a testing op.

Anyway, the broader synoptic consideration would argue suppression but this isn't absolute, either.

[dendrite]

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

MOS/NBM are 76/77. 

But I'll say they get to 78

Will probably be dependent on precip and cloud debris.

BDL record is 78°

[Typhoon Tip]

op ed:

You know ... as impressive as this three, maybe four day heat wave is.. I'm seeing subtleties in the guidance like they are tussling with a fast atmosphere offset.

Typically, fast would negatively interfere with establishing resonant feedbacks - 'fast' sends disturbances into the engine that gums up the gears so to speak.  In this case, linear forcing appears to be outweighing the non-linear mechanics (addition) to end up with a ridge surplus so some resonance is established. 

And there is a bit of non-linear neg interference in play ...  evidenced not so much in the velocity of the flow, but by the rate of emergence and decay of pattern resonant features - which is a non-linear wave function.  Faster life cycle means the pattern identities just can't seem to stay in place. 

This is something I've noticed frequently over recent decades - the emergence and fade life cycle of patterns occurring faster.  I have conjectural ideas that some of the heat of CC is being absorbed and then converted and stored in the non-linear... which is then expressed by the energy required to move larger mass fields more frequently.  It takes a lot of energy to change a pattern.  A locked pattern is actually lower burden on global budget.  But if you have negative EPO modes wildly transitioning to +EPO ... or more so,  imagine an index as large as the PNA's domain space...etc, ... it costs to change the geometry of those mass fields.  It's probably a good thing this dynamic is available otherwise, Antarctica might be half its size already and NYC's skyline would be a massive mooring harbor 

 

[Layman]

14 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

10 years here, no electric bill since May 2016; wife was skeptical at first, kinda looks almost brilliant right now

I've been curious about this for some time and had trouble discerning where a break-even is after initial purchase.  I know there were subsidies involved in a lot of installations that helped but I've also heard people mention panels degrade over time and/or there are maintenance costs to factor in (panel replacement, batteries, etc).

I imagine you've hit a break-even at some point during this stretch.  Do you happen to know when it was and how far ahead you are?

[Typhoon Tip]

Nasty heat at the end of the Euro run (inferred) ... This was a purely SW lava puke that gets trapped over Chi-town ...with (probably in this kind of structure -) briefer inject through our region.   But what's up with the over-zealous polar jet over top in Canada, huh.   That's what keeps it brief for us - again ... if this depiction should prevail.  which it won't but just sayn

[Typhoon Tip]

Little bit of tree rustling and WNW breeze here.   AWT, less cloud has resulted.   Some up over SE NH but that's got a short lease on life I presume.

Open sky heating here now.   

85/71, up 9 in the last 1.5 hours.     We'll see how '10 after 10' works out -

[CT Valley Snowman]

Off to a slow start at 82. Might be more like 94-95 vs 97.  We'll see.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CT Valley Snowman said:

Off to a slow start at 82. Might be more like 94-95 vs 97.  We'll see.  

What source has 97 ?  

 

[weatherwiz]

Weak llvl flow but Friday has my attention on the NAM...

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What source has 97 ?  

 

NWS is hitting 97 in the CRV

[forkyfork]

[CT Valley Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What source has 97 ?  

 

NWS, Weather Underground, and NBC CT HFD are 3 that I'm aware of that are 97 here today.  We'll see how it plays out.  

[weatherwiz]

Friday may even deserve its own thread. May fire one up a little later. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Just now, CT Valley Snowman said:

NWS, Weather Underground, and NBC CT HFD are 3 that I'm aware of that are 97 here today.  We'll see how it plays out.  

Edit: WU just went to 96.  

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

@grok

Is this real?

[forkyfork]

Just now, dendrite said:

@grok

Is this real?

the heat melted that woman's arm clean off

[Cyclone-68]

Looks like another decent thunderstorm complex taking shape west northwest of Montreal. Maybe we deal with that later?

[HoarfrostHubb]

We have a contractor doing work in our attic all day.  I asked if he wanted to reschedule.   Nope.  
AC is blasting but we can feel the heat spewing from the opening into it.   

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We have a contractor doing work in our attic all day.  I asked if he wanted to reschedule.   Nope.  
AC is blasting but we can feel the heat spewing from the opening into it.   

Can you get up there with him to take advantage of the heat ?

[MJOatleast7]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@grok

Is this real?

AI - Apocalyptic Intent

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can you get up there with him to take advantage of the heat ?

I’ve spent about 30 seconds total in the attic in the 28 years I have lived here.  Actually. That was even before we bought the house. It was just during the inspection.   It is a useless attic other than being an insulator. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The rain the past two days has definitely helped pump up the humidity levels.