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Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY
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BrianW
BrianW

I am heading to my sister's beach house in Narragansett out on Pt Judith today. Same thing there where only a north wind will bring in any heat. Its absolutely wild to leave there when its like 72 deg

wxeyeNH
wxeyeNH

We have a standing seam newer metal roof.  The panels are clamped on the standing seams.  2 years, no problems.  Just panels east/west on the barn.  Today I'm running 3 window ACs and charging my 4 ye

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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22 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

That I know of, no... 

Would save me a lot of time if there was.

Maybe some members from the NWS has (special) access to some evaluations?

I find it to be alright...I don't think its anything truly groundbreaking over traditional MOS. What can be very valuable about it is how it provides temperatures based on percentile which can be a huge asset in highly anomalous patterns. For example, I think it was a couple years ago when they were getting very big heat in the West I remember some places where the 90th percentile which was verifying over the typical median which is spit out. 

I think it absolutely sucks though along boundaries, which I mean can be expected to a degree, but it almost always, always to favor towards the warmer side of the boundary. I've seen NBM bust by like 15F because it had the warm front blowing through and that never happened. 

I also like how it does not have the limit of reporting cloud cover...so it will pick up on the high clouds while traditional MOS will spit out CLR 

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MegaMike

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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I find it to be alright...I don't think its anything truly groundbreaking over traditional MOS. What can be very valuable about it is how it provides temperatures based on percentile which can be a huge asset in highly anomalous patterns. For example, I think it was a couple years ago when they were getting very big heat in the West I remember some places where the 90th percentile which was verifying over the typical median which is spit out. 

I think it absolutely sucks though along boundaries, which I mean can be expected to a degree, but it almost always, always to favor towards the warmer side of the boundary. I've seen NBM bust by like 15F because it had the warm front blowing through and that never happened. 

I also like how it does not have the limit of reporting cloud cover...so it will pick up on the high clouds while traditional MOS will spit out CLR 

Oh, absolutely!

Knowing potential error in forecasting is useful. It can help determine an edge :lol:

Agreed. Models struggle along tight gradients. That's universal regardless of boundary type (dry-moist, warm-cold, land-water, etc...) ... Advantage will always go to the finer resolution modeling system.

 

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Typhoon Tip

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19 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Oh, absolutely!

Knowing potential error in forecasting is useful. It can help determine an edge :lol:

Agreed. Models struggle along tight gradients. That's universal regardless of boundary type (dry-moist, warm-cold, land-water, etc...) ... Advantage will always go to the finer resolution modeling system.

 

Yeah I was just going add .. I bet they're just as abysmal as any along coastal land/sea contention.   But that's part of the whole "local gradient" thing.  As always ... resolution resolution resolution

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Typhoon Tip

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The 12z NAM grid's fully on board.   ..whether this shows up in the machine interpolations or not, notwithstanding... but this is about as hot as I've ever seen these numbers.   BOS and LGA Thursday, left to right: 

5400051 31 19 -1292 11 25 11   82 34 26 19   5400048 28 12 -3294 142310   82 34 26 20
6000054 39 34 -5891 10 24 16   83 34 27 18   6000047 32 20 -0993 132513   83 35 27 20

Left to right these number illustrate a pure sear scenario.  Man and I mean it!

31 and 19% is bone dry sky.  Open blue, 100% undiluted solar dump in.  So is 39 and 34% at 00z Friday ( bottom row).  That's BOS (Logan). 

Likewise, LGA (Laguardia) is no different.     That's the sky coverage...

The next digits moving right correspond to wind direction, and speed.   24 and 25 represent 240 and 250 deg, respectively, which average WSW, at 11 to 16 kts

LGA, 280 and 320 is WNW, which is idealized actually ...and given to the fact that both locations are identical synoptic constraints, these are also mutable.  Call it a west wind at both for now.      0  oceanic influence. 

The 82 and 83 corresponds to 582 and 583 hydrostatic heights ( referred to as 'thickness').   Anything over 572 is getting into a very warm column distinction. Obviously ... raising this number means integrating more and more water into the column and in order to do that, requires heat.  So, clearing 580 is both exceptional rare around our latitude, but also rare for our geological limitations.   I'm starting to feel this is our best synergistic heat performance we've seen since the phenom was recently codified. 

The rest of the numbers,  "34  26  19"  (BOS, left) is 18z, are deg C.   34 C, left, is at the 980 mb level.  Which is very rare, because the actual 2 meter by convention is typically a minimum of 3C above this number in a well mixed adiabatic environment.  4 or even 5 C is not out of the question given to the fact that the total combination of synoptic parametrics are really quite spectacular when taken holistically ( this is part of the synergy consideration).  So... in simple terms, a 38 or even 39 C over a the urban sprawl of metro-west of Boston towns is quite doable.

Now ... the NAM is the NAM is the NAM... there's that.  It also can sometimes go large in heat in the 48+ hour range...then settle back on newer runs.  The other 12z guidance is probably rolling out now.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Idiosyncratic notables about this NAM output continue...

6 consecutive periods of at or > 580 dm thickness.  Usually even the hottest synoptics tickle 580 around 21z each afternoon and we settle back 576... But this is hanging around at that ungodly height.   Trust me...I've paid close attention to these gridded guidance numbers for long years.  

Tomorrow's no picnic, either.  31C max at Logan is probably a 35 C walking down Cambridge Ave or out over the parking lots of of Natick.   HFD and Lowell are cooking.  

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So this isn't "typical" summer weather like some claim. 

well...  "heat" is typical in summer - or supposed to be... heh.  We've had some summers that were little torpid in that regard - certainly with respect and comparison to CC and the world.   I mean it's been warmer than normal?  it has.. no question.  But we ware lagging ( or been so - ) over the rest of the world for bigger heat event frequency.    

As others et al have noted and we've discussed, we've accrued much of our CC through nocturnal/low temperatures.   Otherwise, as Scott and Brian and I have explained, there's too many ways to discretely interfere with temp rising.  Subtle. I mean discrete when using that word, because it is not always very obvious ... We can look identical in the entry to Des Moines IA, yet they're 104 while we're 95...etc..

For that, which is fairly objective ... a result like what this looks like ( currently ) it's capable of achieving, would have to be considered atypically hot.  But there's also a couple of facets simultaneously true.  Those numbers I described, by scalar AND their implication when combined, are both above normal, but also above "normal heat waves".  Any heat wave here is an anomaly... but f we were to say a 90/90/90 three days is 1 standard deviation, this is well above a single Standard Deviation if it goes on that way

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe I lied…close but no cigar in 2024. I know it was modeled. But 98-99…similar deal.

image.gif

I your defense... I remember these summers since 2020 as having 101's on the car dash driving around during heat waves.  Depended on where one was.   It was like that kind of quantum oscillated away from the tarmacs to hide it, heat.  hahaha. 

Anyway, point being ...when your 98 in a lazily flag waving sear, it's sort of like "close enough" ?    That sort of puts this thing in coming up a notch because good luck hiding from this.   Ineedsnowcocaine'll be all giddy to tell us how his elevated wooded residence is only 94 so I guess it fails, huh -

2021 had a June bizarre kind of DP heat wave.  It was 93/81 ... I remember this specifically because both my kitchen refrigerator and my main living area window AC both crapped the bed literally within the same hour at the apex of that motherfucker. It was like the week after the solstice.   Holy hell.  and of course... because it was afoot, I had to skulk around the country side for hours to find both on emergency.  

I pulled it off though.  Sat in a blast of cold AC air stream by 8 pm that night, and the refrigerator was picked up the following afternoon. 

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Typhoon Tip

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How dare it get to 100F in summer

ahh...

good snark needs to have some truth to it... Not sure you're on point this time. Ha. 

Seriously.  100?    It's not as common to reach that.  Perhaps that's getting easier in recent decades. Granted.  Almost has to.  But even in these later decades, we're not doing it often enough to justify snark. 

It's coming though.  Much to the chagrin of the assholes that will one day actually be dying from heat while setting confused emojis to anyone that dares talk about it.. that's unavoidable.  

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dendrite

dendrite

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I your defense... I remember these summers since 2020 as having 101's on the car dash driving around during heat waves.  Depended on where one was.   It was like that kind of quantum oscillated away from the tarmacs to hide heat.  hahaha. 

Anyway, point being ...when your 98 in a lazily flag waving sear, it's sort of like "close enough" ?

2021 had a June bizarre kind of DP heat wave.  It was 93/81 ... I remember this specifically because both my kitchen refrigerator and my main living area window AC both crapped the bed literally within the same hour at the apex of that motherfucker. It was like the week after the solstice.   Holy hell.  and of course... because it was afoot, I had to skulk around the country side for hours to find both on emergency.  

I pulled it off though.  Sat in a blast of cold AC air stream by 8 pm that night, and the refrigerator was picked up the following afternoon. 

Then we had July 2018 when the GFS was trying to paint 110s in the region with the overmixing. Ended up being high 90s over mid 70s dews. Pick your poison there.

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Modfan2

Modfan2

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What kind of sea breeze interaction can we see during this stretch? Only reason asking last night its appears one formed and made it down into NE CT judging by radar. After spending 9 years working outside in S FL I was keen to watching the sea breeze develop on radar for indication where storms might start to form. 

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