Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

These always trend north

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south 

[kdxken]

 

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south 

Just showers? How much for Hartford?

[dendrite]

The correctional vector always points away from Tolland in the summer, but toward it in the winter. Funny how that happens.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Need to get some of that up here. This will hurt.

Congrats Ditty on 5+

Are you really that dry?  We have standing water in some spots. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south 

I’m just busting.  I do think the main axis of 2+” remains south. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The correctional vector always points away from Tolland in the summer, but toward it in the winter. Funny how that happens.

4-6” is your call. Fingers crossed . I’ll be happy with 1”

[JJBASHB]

On 7/3/2026 at 1:21 AM, vortex95 said:

That's a good point, but the door swings both ways here.  Repeating lies or gross exaggerations enough, people will start believing it.  This results in the bandwagon fallacy (everyone is saying it, so it *must* be true!).

Being skeptical is an invaluable tool.  Not enough ppl IMHO use it, or more specifically, apply/handle it in the best (most balanced) way.  So we often end up w/ the false dichotomy logical fallacy, believe everything or don't believe anything.  Neither is good.

How one presents data is paramount.  Just posting random tidbits lacking detail or sources that more and more have AI-generated slop are rife these days and deserve to be called out.  If one can recognize crap/nonsense/slop better, one will make better decisions and avoid being duped/scammed/brainwashed.

There is one constant and fundamental issue that that makes the warming issue very enticing politically, socially, and economically.  Touting the end of the world or civilization as we know it -- can you think of anything else more urgent and absolute than that to society?  So riding that narrative sells easily and instills deep psychological fear in the population.  In such a state, they can be molded/manipulated better.  Claims the world is going to end due to AGW fits this category, and is why high skepticism and push back exists, b/c it is not so much about the science anymore, it is more about ideology/agenda/control.

Having problems in general sense, real or imagined, unfortunately has been realized and abused in recent decades that there is enormous power and profit having such.  Hence, where we are today.  Nothing is scaled or put into proper context/perspective anymore.  It's always "the worst ever" or "it was never like this before" or some variant.

Don’t want to get too far off topic (spoiler I did, skip now if you hate this stuff) but I agree skepticism is valuable, the backbone of science, but like any tool can be used to mislead or misapplied.  
 

Productive AGW debate lives in the averages, not in the extremes, trying to link a single extreme event seems like it will fail from the onset based on the required burden of scientific proof.  But at the same time it’s equally as disingenuous to point at those people and question the whole notion.  You’re always going to have weenies reporting erroneous snow reports from Lunenburg that tack on 4 extra inches.  Who doesn’t love 4 more inches… of snow.   Or a 133 HI in New Jersey.  Or sensor errors.  Or changes in local environment.  All of which make comparing specific information today to the past difficult, and merit discussion, but not throwing the baby out with the bathwater.  
 

The use of end of the world narrative is similar in my opinion, the goal is to avoid a measured middle ground.  There’s a lot of middle ground between it doesn’t matter and end of the world.  Impacts could be gradual compared to an individual’s timeline, but time is relative.  If a coastal area of millions and its associated infrastructure slowly becomes uninhabitable in a century, that’s a big deal, but not for everyone living now.  That scenario still causes a significant amount of disruption and potential suffering.  Discussions on how to prepare/ advances in the ability to quickly establish/increase infrastructure in the event of mass migration are still fruitful.  This is just one aspect, crop failures, ecosystem disruption, etc. There is potential for suffering, stagnating or reversing/wiping out growth through all of these events without it being the end of civilization.  There are lots of examples through history, too, of near total and local scale civilization collapse.  It’s part of reality.  Could focusing the discussion on how end of the world calls are absurd/fear mongering, instead of what can be done about the million other possibilities, be a ploy to polarize to the point nothing is done outside of elite circles?  Which is the radical flip side of skepticism, deliberate paralyzing the masses through skepticism/narrative overload/polarization so nature takes its course outside of special enclaves.  
 

Anyway, way off topic and descended into movie plot territory.  Going back to lurking/waiting for another 6/1/11, enjoying the last of the heat, and tracking the upcoming heavy rain potential.  
 

Happy 4th! 

 

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Are you really that dry?  We have standing water in some spots. 

No. But it’s been a good stretch for the fruit trees with rain every few days…just wanna keep the streak going.

[Modfan2]

Going to preface by saying it’s only 9am but feels less humid with a light breeze and 82F

[Damage In Tolland]

6z Euro bump south with big amounts now coastal CT to S coast RI south west thru NYC. Much less north 

[dendrite]

Only 3” there now. 

[WxWatcher007]

I’m more than a little skeptical of big totals, but with that gradient and high amounts of moisture available someone will get smoked.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only 3” there now. 

That’s about 1.5” 2” here and it had 5-6 00z, Point being wagons south with heaviest 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s about 2” and it had 5-6 00z, Point being wagons south with heaviest 

What’s your forecast for your backyard?

Happy 4th!

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s your forecast for your backyard?

Happy 4th!

Subject to change .. but I’ve been thinking .5- .75 .. if lucky 1” If happen to get a storm today that’s not included 

Enjoy the 4th . It’s as hot as a firecracker 

https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2073385963242340699?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

No. But it’s been a good stretch for the fruit trees with rain every few days…just wanna keep the streak going.

Brian,  my fruit trees are doing good.  Apples, peaches, Concord Grapes and 2 of my Chestnut trees have Male catkins. Wheather they are close enough to cross pollinate remains to be seen but I could possibly have some Chestnuts to share come fall!  Happy 4th to all!

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only 3” there now. 

You're dealing with heavy thunderstorms so amounts will vary considerably place to place. That's a huge signal that someone could get hammered (6"+) though. 1-3" per hour type stuff

[Brian5671]

Happy the Heat is ending a bit earlier than forecast-been brutal and both my sons work at golf courses....on side note-some will never miss their round-I was figuring there would be little work-not correct at all.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  my fruit trees are doing good.  Apples, peaches, Concord Grapes and 2 of my Chestnut trees have Male catkins. Wheather they are close enough to cross pollinate remains to be seen but I could possibly have some Chestnuts to share come fall!  Happy 4th to all!

One of mine is loaded with catkins and has female flowers. The other two have male catkins for the first time…just hoping it’s enough to pollinate the big one!

The pawpaws are still holding 6 fruit. It was a great June for the plants.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Happy the Heat is ending a bit earlier than forecast-been brutal and both my sons work at golf courses....on side note-some will never miss their round-I was figuring there would be little work-not correct at all.

Heh ... appears on schedule to me.   It's a tedious examination perhaps but just sayn'

It's 88/72 with ample sun and light W to WNW wind... We'll likely make the MAV 92 to 94s which has been in forecast for some time. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Synoptic thoughts...

Tomorrow should be cooler on the coast where there's likely to be the nascent yet still feeble onshore wind developing... In the interior, probably still makes the low 80s.  The hydrostatic heights are not really falling very much below 570 dm, which is technically a very warm atmosphere relative to our climate.  What could offset this, however ...is if we get more organized convection sparked off and rumbling through late today and night.  SPC is currently loading everything well SW so ... not sure what their whys are in the matter - haven't read.

Anyway...if it stays dry, 80s in the interior tomorrow looking at the soundings.  But if gets wet, that would process out the "non-Markovian" memory of the system and we'd end up more shallow cool below synoptic inversion ...

There really isn't a BD front being analyzed by WPC ( tho they seldom do)...but looking around at area obs/sat, there isn't one. The main b-c axis is up along the ST S-way, pretty far NW. But, with heights receding it's like the NAM is sort of instantiating a boundary - which isn't physically impossible to see a frontogenesis of sorts, if the flow aloft has height falls while speeding up..  The Euro and GFS seem to be doing the same thing.... 

It's why we get all that rain ( maybe...) the day after tomorrow. That nascent boundary provides an isotropic lifting interface, and because the flow to push it south is ultimately too weak to actually do so... we may start training a bit.   It's an interesting set up.  Very weak synoptic forcing, with high volatility/PWAT access... The latter is pseudo-adiabatically very unstable.  It can over perform with less motivation to do so.   But ... it doesn't set well with me that the NAM, which is a sneaky great tool for 'convective initiation' that few know about or use ... (sorry to see this aspect be lost by the majority that don't), has paltry totals through Monday night.  Maybe 12z comes around a bit...

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh ... appears on schedule to me.   It's a tedious examination perhaps but just sayn'

It's 88/72 with ample sun and light W to WNW wind... We'll likely make the MAV 92 to 94s which has been in forecast for some time. 

I think some earlier forecasts had it being pretty hot Sunday, but that's out the window now.  Even the Extreme heat warnings for today have been pared back in some areas 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think some earlier forecasts had it being pretty hot Sunday, but that's out the window now.  Even the Extreme heat warnings for today have been pared back in some areas 

ha...yeah, I guess as Mets we sometimes lock the doors and look at what we look at and don't pay as much attention to what other's are touting.   

This is probably becoming true about civility regardless of walks and purposes ... Between AI super-charged social media dopamine dripping, to media selling news ( which doomed humanity from ever knowing the truth once that breached the journalistic integrity threshold at some point 20 to 30 years ago and has only gotten completely fabricating since - run-on sentence  ), people that seek guidance and truth tend to shut out the din of it all in lieu of what they know ( or at least "think" ) really works.  

But I digress... 

LOL   ...little more than you wanted I'm sure.   no but yeah I was referring to the model synoptics being pretty consistent with the heights receding/crossing back below 582 dm, while the MET machine coverage being consistent with mid 80s 'after' today.  Since the latter fit the former..  done deal.  I haven't been paying attention to much else over the last several days.   Sew me.  

[Spanks45]

On 7/2/2026 at 4:25 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

@Spanks45 did you hit a hundo in the valley?

Surprisingly no...98.2⁰ was my peak, definitely the highest since I moved here. It doesnt matter though, ridiculously hot out there, to top it off I came home after the softball game on Wednesday to find out the compressor on my central air died...wonderful timing, so had to scramble for window units on Thursday. Heat is an issue with my kid right now which made it even worse and parts wont be here until at least Monday. What was you peak?

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

6z Euro bump south with big amounts now coastal CT to S coast RI south west thru NYC. Much less north 

How much for Hartford?

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s about 1.5” 2” here and it had 5-6 00z, Point being wagons south with heaviest 

Point being it's a lot of rain. Make a prediction. You always get on scooter.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How much for Hartford?

As of now you saw my forecast 

[Chrisrotary12]

Thank god this heat is ending. I don’t mind it but after 5 days it gets old. Happy for some 70s and low 80s. 

[Hoth]

Go figure as soon as I'm supposed to go out to the island we're looking at a deluge. Same shit happened Memorial Day weekend. Just not my summer.