Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

These always trend north

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south 

[kdxken]

 

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south 

Just showers? How much for Hartford?

[dendrite]

The correctional vector always points away from Tolland in the summer, but toward it in the winter. Funny how that happens.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Need to get some of that up here. This will hurt.

Congrats Ditty on 5+

Are you really that dry?  We have standing water in some spots. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south 

I’m just busting.  I do think the main axis of 2+” remains south. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The correctional vector always points away from Tolland in the summer, but toward it in the winter. Funny how that happens.

4-6” is your call. Fingers crossed . I’ll be happy with 1”

[JJBASHB]

On 7/3/2026 at 1:21 AM, vortex95 said:

That's a good point, but the door swings both ways here.  Repeating lies or gross exaggerations enough, people will start believing it.  This results in the bandwagon fallacy (everyone is saying it, so it *must* be true!).

Being skeptical is an invaluable tool.  Not enough ppl IMHO use it, or more specifically, apply/handle it in the best (most balanced) way.  So we often end up w/ the false dichotomy logical fallacy, believe everything or don't believe anything.  Neither is good.

How one presents data is paramount.  Just posting random tidbits lacking detail or sources that more and more have AI-generated slop are rife these days and deserve to be called out.  If one can recognize crap/nonsense/slop better, one will make better decisions and avoid being duped/scammed/brainwashed.

There is one constant and fundamental issue that that makes the warming issue very enticing politically, socially, and economically.  Touting the end of the world or civilization as we know it -- can you think of anything else more urgent and absolute than that to society?  So riding that narrative sells easily and instills deep psychological fear in the population.  In such a state, they can be molded/manipulated better.  Claims the world is going to end due to AGW fits this category, and is why high skepticism and push back exists, b/c it is not so much about the science anymore, it is more about ideology/agenda/control.

Having problems in general sense, real or imagined, unfortunately has been realized and abused in recent decades that there is enormous power and profit having such.  Hence, where we are today.  Nothing is scaled or put into proper context/perspective anymore.  It's always "the worst ever" or "it was never like this before" or some variant.

Don’t want to get too far off topic (spoiler I did, skip now if you hate this stuff) but I agree skepticism is valuable, the backbone of science, but like any tool can be used to mislead or misapplied.  
 

Productive AGW debate lives in the averages, not in the extremes, trying to link a single extreme event seems like it will fail from the onset based on the required burden of scientific proof.  But at the same time it’s equally as disingenuous to point at those people and question the whole notion.  You’re always going to have weenies reporting erroneous snow reports from Lunenburg that tack on 4 extra inches.  Who doesn’t love 4 more inches… of snow.   Or a 133 HI in New Jersey.  Or sensor errors.  Or changes in local environment.  All of which make comparing specific information today to the past difficult, and merit discussion, but not throwing the baby out with the bathwater.  
 

The use of end of the world narrative is similar in my opinion, the goal is to avoid a measured middle ground.  There’s a lot of middle ground between it doesn’t matter and end of the world.  Impacts could be gradual compared to an individual’s timeline, but time is relative.  If a coastal area of millions and its associated infrastructure slowly becomes uninhabitable in a century, that’s a big deal, but not for everyone living now.  That scenario still causes a significant amount of disruption and potential suffering.  Discussions on how to prepare/ advances in the ability to quickly establish/increase infrastructure in the event of mass migration are still fruitful.  This is just one aspect, crop failures, ecosystem disruption, etc. There is potential for suffering, stagnating or reversing/wiping out growth through all of these events without it being the end of civilization.  There are lots of examples through history, too, of near total and local scale civilization collapse.  It’s part of reality.  Could focusing the discussion on how end of the world calls are absurd/fear mongering, instead of what can be done about the million other possibilities, be a ploy to polarize to the point nothing is done outside of elite circles?  Which is the radical flip side of skepticism, deliberate paralyzing the masses through skepticism/narrative overload/polarization so nature takes its course outside of special enclaves.  
 

Anyway, way off topic and descended into movie plot territory.  Going back to lurking/waiting for another 6/1/11, enjoying the last of the heat, and tracking the upcoming heavy rain potential.  
 

Happy 4th! 

 

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Are you really that dry?  We have standing water in some spots. 

No. But it’s been a good stretch for the fruit trees with rain every few days…just wanna keep the streak going.

[Modfan2]

Going to preface by saying it’s only 9am but feels less humid with a light breeze and 82F