MANDA Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 54 minutes ago, Picard said: Ripping up here as storms train through. I've already blown past an inch and counting just in the last 20-25 minutes. Frequent thunder and lightening. Same here. Absolute deluge. A few CTG streaks followed by very loud thunder. Wind gusts modest at perhaps 30 mph briefly. Will go get a measurement shortly. Easily over 1". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Same here. Absolute deluge. A few CTG streaks followed by very loud thunder. Wind gusts modest at perhaps 30 mph briefly. Will go get a measurement shortly. Easily over 1". Just measured here and have exactly 1.25" in both the electronic tipper and the plastic one. The sun had come out but now clouds and darker skies have returned. It looks like more spots are starting to develop to the SW again and we'll see if they bring anything. I had a quivering, panting dog glued to me earlier so she is unhappy with this morning's weather. We'ved tried music, calming chews, treats, and playing with her. Nothing seems to help. As I finish typing, rain has started again here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Wow, that was impressive. Nice drink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The futurecast is essentially useless at 36-48 hours. It's akin to a 120-hour NAM run (NAM ends at 84 hours, just so one has context for my analogy). Not surprisingly, last night's figures were dramatically lowered and are now in line with the guidance. https://pix11.com/news/local-news/projected-rainfall-totals-in-ny-nj-ahead-of-storms/ On channel 7 Lee Goldberg will often say that he disagrees with the futurecast. Or he'll do what he did yesterday which was show the HRRR futurecast because he didn't agree with the regular futurecast not showing the break during the afternoon like the HRRR did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 sun is breaking through now in north central NJ Temp : 85 Dewpoint 72 - solid line of precip approaching for later today from western PA - expect a severe watch to be issued within the next couple of hours for most of the Metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Received 1.72" from earlier storms. Most of that fell in about 45 minutes. It was absolute drench warfare. Looming severe threat later. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 HRRR may be losing the plot a bit now. 14Z run seems wacky, I don't see that much convection firing over N-CNTRL NJ the next 4 hours. As a result its sort of distorting the 23-01Z impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 wouldn't be surprised if a tornado watch is issued along with the severe thunderstorm watch over a wide area across multiple states - just a matter of where the line sets up and which part of the line conains the individual severe storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 I think this will bust for me in central jersey 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: I think this will bust for me in central jersey what is your reasoning ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: HRRR may be losing the plot a bit now. 14Z run seems wacky, I don't see that much convection firing over N-CNTRL NJ the next 4 hours. As a result its sort of distorting the 23-01Z impact. its now casting time IMO - high dewpoints and temps and increasing instability and a strong 250mb jet streak in the region = severe somewhere in the region - question is exactly where ? IMO Albany down to DC is in the game this go around IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 The next batch / round into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 We’ll see what can fire east of the city. A few showers over N Nassau and Suffolk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Sun is out in Union county NJ. Some brief pop up storms but nothing bad like what’s NE of here. Let’s see what the atmosphere can fire up later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Insane rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 21 Author Share Posted July 21 They are really going crazy with this. County parks are closing as of noon as a precaution 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Westchester County Airport has heavy rain, but the sensor is not reporting amounts. Hopefully, it's a communication issue, not a sensor issue. There was a nearly month-long stretch earlier in the year where precipitation amounts weren't recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Westchester County Airport has heavy rain, but the sensor is not reporting amounts. Hopefully, it's a communication issue, not a sensor issue. There was a nearly month-long stretch earlier in the year where precipitation amounts weren't recorded. Had to be 3-5 inch per hr rates. Elmsford is flooded. I have a lot of water at job 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 1 minute ago, tristateweatherFB said: Had to be 3-5 inch per hr rates. Elmsford is flooded. I have a lot of water at job I agree. It's disappointing that equipment maintenance is no longer a priority. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: They are really going crazy with this. County parks are closing as of noon as a precaution So ridiculous. So many people don't understand the nature of summer storms, which of course is that only isolated spots get hit with flooding or damage. You shouldn't close things down due to thunderstorm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: HRRR may be losing the plot a bit now. 14Z run seems wacky, I don't see that much convection firing over N-CNTRL NJ the next 4 hours. As a result its sort of distorting the 23-01Z impact. I see the 15z run continues this theme, with storms scattered around throughout the afternoon instead of a break and then a main line for the early evening. Who knows -- these events are difficult to predict. I see on radar more downpours are popping up in eastern PA, so maybe this new idea from the HRRR is going to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Had non stop thunder and strong winds from those systems in nw Bergen County. Minimal rains. Sparta, nj reported 3.31" of rain this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 53 minutes ago, MANDA said: Received 1.72" from earlier storms. Most of that fell in about 45 minutes. It was absolute drench warfare. Looming severe threat later. I topped out at 1.38" after the much smaller second round. In my childhood home in Lafayette - 5 miles as the crow flies, Mom reports 2.5", and she's good with the rain gauge, I taught her well! Zooming in on Weather Underground does show several reports in the low 2s throughout that general area. It's a bummer that Rutgers doesn't have more stations in this area. There is a rather big gap in coverage from the High Point / Vernon / Sandyston area down to Central Morris County. There is a station in Lafayette, I drive by it frequently, but it rarely reports anything anymore. Hell, I'll even volunteer to help maintain a couple of them if they put more up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Atmosphere is a lot more unstable vs the weekend. Severe potential is a lot higher later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 heavy rains here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 3-4 inches of rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 19 minutes ago, Picard said: I topped out at 1.38" after the much smaller second round. In my childhood home in Lafayette - 5 miles as the crow flies, Mom reports 2.5", and she's good with the rain gauge, I taught her well! Zooming in on Weather Underground does show several reports in the low 2s throughout that general area. It's a bummer that Rutgers doesn't have more stations in this area. There is a rather big gap in coverage from the High Point / Vernon / Sandyston area down to Central Morris County. There is a station in Lafayette, I drive by it frequently, but it rarely reports anything anymore. Hell, I'll even volunteer to help maintain a couple of them if they put more up. I have good news. We'll be adding a station in Sparta in the coming months! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 33 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: So ridiculous. So many people don't understand the nature of summer storms, which of course is that only isolated spots get hit with flooding or damage. You shouldn't close things down due to thunderstorm potential. Island Beach SP closed on Saturday due to "nearby thunderstorms" when the nearest lightning strike was 55 miles to the north and any threatening rain was still west of Baltimore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 85 /75 some sun and clouds. Loading up ahead of the storms or just staying mainly north - tbs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 A whole lot nothing here in central Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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