July 2026

[SnowGoose69]

HRRR may be losing the plot a bit now.  14Z run seems wacky, I don't see that much convection firing over N-CNTRL NJ the next 4 hours.  As a result its sort of distorting the 23-01Z impact.  

[NEG NAO]

wouldn't be surprised if a tornado watch is issued along with the severe thunderstorm watch over a wide area across multiple states - just a matter of where the line sets up and which part of the line conains the individual severe storms

[winterwarlock]

I think this will bust for me in central jersey

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

I think this will bust for me in central jersey

what is your reasoning ?

 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HRRR may be losing the plot a bit now.  14Z run seems wacky, I don't see that much convection firing over N-CNTRL NJ the next 4 hours.  As a result its sort of distorting the 23-01Z impact.  

its now casting time IMO - high dewpoints and temps and increasing instability and a strong 250mb jet streak in the region = severe somewhere in the region - question is exactly where ? IMO Albany down to DC is in the game this go around IMO

[SACRUS]

The next batch / round into PA

 

[jm1220]

We’ll see what can fire east of the city. A few showers over N Nassau and Suffolk now. 

[Neblizzard]

Sun is out in Union county NJ. Some brief pop up storms but nothing bad like what’s NE of here.  Let’s see what the atmosphere can fire up later 

[qg_omega]

Insane rains

[Stormlover74]

They are really going crazy with this. County parks are closing as of noon as a precaution 

[donsutherland1]

Westchester County Airport has heavy rain, but the sensor is not reporting amounts. Hopefully, it's a communication issue, not a sensor issue. There was a nearly month-long stretch earlier in the year where precipitation amounts weren't recorded. 

[tristateweatherFB]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Westchester County Airport has heavy rain, but the sensor is not reporting amounts. Hopefully, it's a communication issue, not a sensor issue. There was a nearly month-long stretch earlier in the year where precipitation amounts weren't recorded. 

Had to be 3-5 inch per hr rates. Elmsford is flooded.     I have a lot of water at job

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, tristateweatherFB said:

Had to be 3-5 inch per hr rates. Elmsford is flooded.     I have a lot of water at job

I agree. It's disappointing that equipment maintenance is no longer a priority. 

[winterwx21]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They are really going crazy with this. County parks are closing as of noon as a precaution 

So ridiculous. So many people don't understand the nature of summer storms, which of course is that only isolated spots get hit with flooding or damage. You shouldn't close things down due to thunderstorm potential.

[winterwx21]

53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HRRR may be losing the plot a bit now.  14Z run seems wacky, I don't see that much convection firing over N-CNTRL NJ the next 4 hours.  As a result its sort of distorting the 23-01Z impact.  

I see the 15z run continues this theme, with storms scattered around throughout the afternoon instead of a break and then a main line for the early evening. Who knows -- these events are difficult to predict. I see on radar more downpours are popping up in eastern PA, so maybe this new idea from the HRRR is going to be correct. 

[steve392]

Had non stop thunder and strong winds from those systems in nw Bergen County. Minimal rains.  Sparta, nj reported 3.31" of rain this morning. 

[Picard]

53 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Received 1.72" from earlier storms.  Most of that fell in about 45 minutes.  It was absolute drench warfare.  

Looming severe threat later.  

I topped out at 1.38" after the much smaller second round.
In my childhood home in Lafayette - 5 miles as the crow flies, Mom reports 2.5", and she's good with the rain gauge, I taught her well!  Zooming in on Weather Underground does show several reports in the low 2s throughout that general area.

It's a bummer that Rutgers doesn't have more stations in this area.  There is a rather big gap in coverage from the High Point / Vernon / Sandyston area down to Central Morris County.  There is a station in Lafayette, I drive by it frequently, but it rarely reports anything anymore.  Hell, I'll even volunteer to help maintain a couple of them if they put more up.
 

 

[SnoSki14]

Atmosphere is a lot more unstable vs the weekend. Severe potential is a lot higher later

[Brian5671]

heavy rains here

[qg_omega]

3-4 inches of rain here

[mgerb]

19 minutes ago, Picard said:

I topped out at 1.38" after the much smaller second round.
In my childhood home in Lafayette - 5 miles as the crow flies, Mom reports 2.5", and she's good with the rain gauge, I taught her well!  Zooming in on Weather Underground does show several reports in the low 2s throughout that general area.

It's a bummer that Rutgers doesn't have more stations in this area.  There is a rather big gap in coverage from the High Point / Vernon / Sandyston area down to Central Morris County.  There is a station in Lafayette, I drive by it frequently, but it rarely reports anything anymore.  Hell, I'll even volunteer to help maintain a couple of them if they put more up.
 

 

I have good news. We'll be adding a station in Sparta in the coming months! 

[TJW014]

33 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

So ridiculous. So many people don't understand the nature of summer storms, which of course is that only isolated spots get hit with flooding or damage. You shouldn't close things down due to thunderstorm potential.

Island Beach SP closed on Saturday due to "nearby thunderstorms" when the nearest lightning strike was 55 miles to the north and any threatening rain was still west of Baltimore. 

[SACRUS]

85 /75 some sun and clouds.  Loading up ahead of the storms or just staying mainly north - tbs

[Prue11]

A whole lot nothing here in central Suffolk 

[donsutherland1]

Westchester County Airport picked up 1.08" of rain in the past hour. One hour of heavy rainfall is missing from the Airport's reporting.

Nevertheless, based on radar estimates, flash flood reports, and precip.AI, the daily record of 2.20" from 1973 has been broken. The precip.ai estimate is 3.70" has fallen there so far. 

Further, based on the precip.ai estimate through 1 pm, the missing hour saw 2.53" of rainfall at Westchester County Airport. That would eclipse the July monthly hourly record (2.15", July 18, 2005) and the all-time hourly mark (2.16", September 1, 2021).

Data continuity matters.

[NEG NAO]

numerous small pop up heavy rain showers in central and north jersey and eastern PA

[steve392]

Monsoon type downpour driving to work while on 95 in secaucus.  Skues are just getting black everywhere. 

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

what is your reasoning ?

 

Energy to north this morning and seems like futurecast wants to focus north and alot to south toward coastal nj

 

Im not saying it wont be a big deal for some of the area but looks like there will be a screw zone

 

We had a brief light shower come through a it ago..woopee

[Brian5671]

an absolutely incredible event here-5-6 inches of rain in about 90 minutes

[Neblizzard]

Heavy rain Elizabeth NJ, scattered storms are forming.