SchaumburgStormer Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Looks to be one of those classic days where if it is discrete and in the warm sector, its producing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted June 16 Author Share Posted June 16 Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 3 hours ago, King James said: WF staying south of the lake always a good bet Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 1 hour ago, Torchageddon said: Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect? I think it’s just “common” knowledge to those of us in N IL. Although if there is a setup that could slam that WF north, it’d be this one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arishtat Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 35 minutes ago, Arishtat said: Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see. That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 RIP king james Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Maybe can score a short “chase” again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 13 minutes ago, KeenerWx said: Maybe can score a short “chase” again. def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 RIP king jamesSouth and east I think / hope Bloomington/ Watseka/ Rensselaer/Knox 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event. Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted June 16 Author Share Posted June 16 looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 I was just a period of short heavy rain and lightning/thunder when it came through my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Legit a little anxious/worried for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Legit a little anxious/worried for tomorrow.Same my dude. Had the IKK/Aroma Park/Lake Village near miss and then this past Thursday was also a near miss for me Really dodging bullets here in east central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 2 minutes ago, King James said: Same my dude. Had the IKK/Aroma Park/Lake Village near miss and then this past Thursday was also a near miss for me Really dodging bullets here in east central IL No doubt. If Reed Timmer sets up shop somewhere around here, we know we’re in the bullseye. What an incredible setup tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 tbh, i believe tomorrow will pale in comparison to last thursday in illinois. that's my hunch. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars hope you get a banger 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Had a few quarter sized stones hit my sliding door around 4:30 PM. Most of the stones were probably .5” and soft looking, but some close to 1” were mixed in. I could definitely hear the bigger harder ones hitting sporadically. Had to warn my parents who live 1 mile away to protect their cars. No severe warning for this cell. I guess it’s hard to see a marginal hail core very close to the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 2 hours ago, pen_artist said: Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north. It usually only happens in the spring, and stops around Chicago due to easterly component off Lake MI even then. I haven’t been paying attention because it’s just going to a chilly stratiform rainer with an embedded rumble or two IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Biggest threat here tomorrow will be from hail. Luckily the real tornado action will avoid this area per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Wouldn’t be shocked if crapvection & the lakes hold this thing south. Not only that but with so much forcing storm crowding may also put a lid on tomorrow. Pretty pessimistic despite insane numbers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 I don't know whats gonna happen tomorrow but almost everything thats come through behind that quick line of precip around 2pm has been full on hook and ladder. I don't think I've seen so many wall clouds at once. I mean every updraft was spinning out of the gate. I watched 5 wall clouds and one funnel without moving lol. Crazy stuff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event. Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally. Just call in sick. No one will suspect a thing. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 54 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Just call in sick. No one will suspect a thing. That would reverse jinx a monster F4 cruising just south of the tower. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 SPC not making many changes to the Day 1 forecast except extending the 10% tornado risk and CIG 2 north. There maybe more small changes but it’s too late to dig into it. A great read below. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today, with primary threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven hail will all be possible. ...IL...IN...MO...OH... An intense mid and upper level jet will nose southeastward across the Midwest today, with a prominent leading disturbance moving out of IA and into IL through midday. Severe storms are likely to be associated with this early wave as a southwesterly low-level jet increases to 60 kt and rapidly bring instability into the area. This initial activity will bring damaging winds to eastern IA and northern/central IL. This system is expected to weaken later in the afternoon, but some remnants will move across IN. Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north across IN and OH. New severe storm development, perhaps transitioning out of the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible across northern IN into northwest OH. Shear profiles will be excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. To the west, the air mass across northern MO, IL, and into central IN will easily recover and rapidly destabilize due to strong southwest winds. A 60+ kt low-level jet is forecast, with notably strong winds around 700 mb as well (surface to 3 km shear values may exceed 60 kt). A plume of 65-70 F dewpoints will likely extend from central MO into IL and western IN in the 21-00Z time frame, contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A broken line of supercells is likely to develop and mature roughly from northern IN into central IL and MO around 21Z and spreading east/southeast through early evening. Given the clearly supercellular shear profiles, linear storm mode is unlikely for most of the event. Long-tracked supercells producing tornadoes and damaging hail are likely. Finally, the warm frontal position will need to be monitored near the IN/MI border. Even if instability is elevated into MI, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado risk. As such, probabilities have been increased into far southern Lower MI. ...Upper TX Coast into the northern Gulf Coast... The NHC forecast shows Potential TC One moving into southwest LA by 00Z. Wind fields associated with this system will strengthen out of the south ahead of it, resulting in areas of strong low-level shear from TX into southern LA, and possibly into MS. Mid to upper 70 F dewpoints will contribute to modest CAPE values, supporting embedded stronger cells with tornado potential. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/17/2026 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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