6/16-6/18 Severe Weather

[SchaumburgStormer]

Looks to be one of those classic days where if it is discrete and in the warm sector, its producing. 

[nvck]

Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here. 

[Torchageddon]

3 hours ago, King James said:

WF staying south of the lake always a good bet

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

I think it’s just “common” knowledge to those of us in N IL. Although if there is a setup that could slam that WF north, it’d be this one. 

[Arishtat]

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see. 

[A-L-E-K]

Lol

 

 

[andyhb]

35 minutes ago, Arishtat said:

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see. 

That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely.

[King James]

Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO

[A-L-E-K]

RIP king james

[KeenerWx]

Maybe can score a short “chase” again. 

[Chicago916]

SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out. 

[A-L-E-K]

13 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Maybe can score a short “chase” again. 

def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars

[pen_artist]

Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.

[King James]

RIP king james

South and east I think / hope

Bloomington/ Watseka/ Rensselaer/Knox

[Chicago Storm]

Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event.

Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally.

[nvck]

looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids

[WestMichigan]

I was just a period of short heavy rain and lightning/thunder when it came through my area.

[Chambana]

Legit a little anxious/worried for tomorrow.

[King James]

Legit a little anxious/worried for tomorrow.

Same my dude.

Had the IKK/Aroma Park/Lake Village near miss and then this past Thursday was also a near miss for me

Really dodging bullets here in east central IL

[Chambana]

2 minutes ago, King James said:

Same my dude.

Had the IKK/Aroma Park/Lake Village near miss and then this past Thursday was also a near miss for me

Really dodging bullets here in east central IL

No doubt. If Reed Timmer sets up shop somewhere around here, we know we’re in the bullseye. What an incredible setup tomorrow.

[Chicago Storm]

tbh, i believe tomorrow will pale in comparison to last thursday in illinois.

that's my hunch.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars

hope you get a banger

[frostfern]

Had a few quarter sized stones hit my sliding door around 4:30 PM. Most of the stones were probably .5” and soft looking, but some close to 1” were mixed in.  I could definitely hear the bigger harder ones hitting sporadically.  

Had to warn my parents who live 1 mile away to protect their cars.  No severe warning for this cell.  I guess it’s hard to see a marginal hail core very close to the radar.

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, pen_artist said:

Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.

It usually only happens in the spring, and stops around Chicago due to easterly component off Lake MI even then.

I haven’t been paying attention because it’s just going to a chilly stratiform rainer with an embedded rumble or two IMBY.

[cyclone77]

Biggest threat here tomorrow will be from hail.  Luckily the real tornado action will avoid this area per usual.

[nwohweather]

Wouldn’t be shocked if crapvection & the lakes hold this thing south. Not only that but with so much forcing storm crowding may also put a lid on tomorrow. Pretty pessimistic despite insane numbers

[Jackstraw]

I don't know whats gonna happen tomorrow but almost everything thats come through behind that quick line of precip around 2pm has been full on hook and ladder. I don't think I've seen so many wall clouds at once. I mean every updraft was spinning out of the gate. I watched 5 wall clouds and one funnel without moving lol. Crazy stuff.

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event.

Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally.

Just call in sick. No one will suspect a thing.

[SchaumburgStormer]

54 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Just call in sick. No one will suspect a thing.

That would reverse jinx a monster F4 cruising just south of the tower. 

[sbnwx85]

SPC not making many changes to the Day 1 forecast except extending the 10% tornado risk and CIG 2 north. There maybe more small changes but it’s too late to dig into it. A great read below.

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS
   AND INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today, with primary
   threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several intense
   tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging
   wind-driven hail will all be possible.

   ...IL...IN...MO...OH...
   An intense mid and upper level jet will nose southeastward across
   the Midwest today, with a prominent leading disturbance moving out
   of IA and into IL through midday. Severe storms are likely to be
   associated with this early wave as a southwesterly low-level jet
   increases to 60 kt and rapidly bring instability into the area. This
   initial activity will bring damaging winds to eastern IA and
   northern/central IL. This system is expected to weaken later in the
   afternoon, but some remnants will move across IN. 

   Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north across IN
   and OH. New severe storm development, perhaps transitioning out of
   the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible
   across northern IN into northwest OH. Shear profiles will be
   excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability
   being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells.

   To the west, the air mass across northern MO, IL, and into central
   IN will easily recover and rapidly destabilize due to strong
   southwest winds. A 60+ kt low-level jet is forecast, with notably
   strong winds around 700 mb as well (surface to 3 km shear values may
   exceed 60 kt). A plume of 65-70 F dewpoints will likely extend from
   central MO into IL and western IN in the 21-00Z time frame,
   contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE.

   A broken line of supercells is likely to develop and mature roughly
   from northern IN into central IL and MO around 21Z and spreading
   east/southeast through early evening. Given the clearly
   supercellular shear profiles, linear storm mode is unlikely for most
   of the event. Long-tracked supercells producing tornadoes and
   damaging hail are likely.

   Finally, the warm frontal position will need to be monitored near
   the IN/MI border. Even if instability is elevated into MI, extreme
   shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado
   risk. As such, probabilities have been increased into far southern
   Lower MI.

   ...Upper TX Coast into the northern Gulf Coast...
   The NHC forecast shows Potential TC One moving into southwest LA by
   00Z. Wind fields associated with this system will strengthen out of
   the south ahead of it, resulting in areas of strong low-level shear
   from TX into southern LA, and possibly into MS. Mid to upper 70 F
   dewpoints will contribute to modest CAPE values, supporting embedded
   stronger cells with tornado potential.

   ..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/17/2026