6/16-6/18 Severe Weather

[SchaumburgStormer]

Looks to be one of those classic days where if it is discrete and in the warm sector, its producing. 

[nvck]

Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here. 

[Torchageddon]

3 hours ago, King James said:

WF staying south of the lake always a good bet

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

I think it’s just “common” knowledge to those of us in N IL. Although if there is a setup that could slam that WF north, it’d be this one. 

[Arishtat]

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see. 

[A-L-E-K]

Lol

 

 

[andyhb]

35 minutes ago, Arishtat said:

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see. 

That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely.

[King James]

Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO

[A-L-E-K]

RIP king james

[KeenerWx]

Maybe can score a short “chase” again. 

[Chicago916]

SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out. 

[A-L-E-K]

13 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Maybe can score a short “chase” again. 

def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars

[pen_artist]

Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.

[King James]

RIP king james

South and east I think / hope

Bloomington/ Watseka/ Rensselaer/Knox

[Chicago Storm]

Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event.

Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally.

[nvck]

looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids

[WestMichigan]

I was just a period of short heavy rain and lightning/thunder when it came through my area.

[Chambana]

Legit a little anxious/worried for tomorrow.

[King James]

Legit a little anxious/worried for tomorrow.

Same my dude.

Had the IKK/Aroma Park/Lake Village near miss and then this past Thursday was also a near miss for me

Really dodging bullets here in east central IL

[Chambana]

2 minutes ago, King James said:

Same my dude.

Had the IKK/Aroma Park/Lake Village near miss and then this past Thursday was also a near miss for me

Really dodging bullets here in east central IL

No doubt. If Reed Timmer sets up shop somewhere around here, we know we’re in the bullseye. What an incredible setup tomorrow.

[Chicago Storm]

tbh, i believe tomorrow will pale in comparison to last thursday in illinois.

that's my hunch.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars

hope you get a banger

[frostfern]

Had a few quarter sized stones hit my sliding door around 4:30 PM. Most of the stones were probably .5” and soft looking, but some close to 1” were mixed in.  I could definitely hear the bigger harder ones hitting sporadically.  

Had to warn my parents who live 1 mile away to protect their cars.  No severe warning for this cell.  I guess it’s hard to see a marginal hail core very close to the radar.

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, pen_artist said:

Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.

It usually only happens in the spring, and stops around Chicago due to easterly component off Lake MI even then.

I haven’t been paying attention because it’s just going to a chilly stratiform rainer with an embedded rumble or two IMBY.

[cyclone77]

Biggest threat here tomorrow will be from hail.  Luckily the real tornado action will avoid this area per usual.