6/16-6/18 Severe Weather

[SchaumburgStormer]

Looks to be one of those classic days where if it is discrete and in the warm sector, its producing. 

[nvck]

Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here. 

[Torchageddon]

3 hours ago, King James said:

WF staying south of the lake always a good bet

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

I think it’s just “common” knowledge to those of us in N IL. Although if there is a setup that could slam that WF north, it’d be this one. 

[Arishtat]

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see. 

[A-L-E-K]

Lol

 

 

[andyhb]

35 minutes ago, Arishtat said:

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see. 

That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely.

[King James]

Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO

[A-L-E-K]

RIP king james

[KeenerWx]

Maybe can score a short “chase” again. 

[Chicago916]

SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out. 

[A-L-E-K]

13 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Maybe can score a short “chase” again. 

def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars

[pen_artist]

Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.

[King James]

RIP king james

South and east I think / hope

Bloomington/ Watseka/ Rensselaer/Knox

[Chicago Storm]

Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event.

Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally.