40/70 Benchmark Posted Saturday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:17 PM 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: -.39 updated today (different on 40/70's site) @BlizzardWx's site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted yesterday at 12:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:13 AM 4 hours ago, katabatic said: I'll take it and am also drooling over the map @40/70 Benchmark published a few days ago. Both of my guest rooms are put together so plan on coming out for the paste bomb I may have to put in my reservations ahead of schedule 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted yesterday at 01:49 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:49 AM This better be a good winter out at DCL. I'm gonna be chasing out there for every event. I'm not even gonna pay to get the drive up the mountain plowed so I can use snow chains instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted yesterday at 06:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:29 PM On 9/6/2026 at 7:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: @BlizzardWxWhen are you going to have the new EURO seasonal uploaded onto your site? On 9/11/2026 at 10:22 AM, mitchnick said: The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic. Sorry on the slow reply, we have a new baby in the house so I've been pretty checked out. I am now doing some backend overhaul to clean up some bad coding from one of my AI agents but I will get the seasonal forecast on there soon if it didn't fix itself already. Anybody who has worked with AI knows what I am talking about when I say extreme tunnel vision in AI agents makes coding "islands" and if you don't manage it carefully it can get pretty out of hand. The PDO calculation is a little higher on mine, probably because I went to some effort to try to normalize out the global warming signal. It should at least trend up and down at the same rate as NOAA but have less of a negative bias. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted yesterday at 06:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:31 PM At least the IOD has finally popped positive as long expected. This along with the rising PDO and resumption of the strengthening El Nino all points towards a different winter ahead than what we have seen for much of the last decade. I suspect warm and wet down here for most of it, with a window for some cold or snow sometime Jan or Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 06:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:34 PM 4 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said: Sorry on the slow reply, we have a new baby in the house so I've been pretty checked out. I am now doing some backend overhaul to clean up some bad coding from one of my AI agents but I will get the seasonal forecast on there soon if it didn't fix itself already. Anybody who has worked with AI knows what I am talking about when I say extreme tunnel vision in AI agents makes coding "islands" and if you don't manage it carefully it can get pretty out of hand. The PDO calculation is a little higher on mine, probably because I went to some effort to try to normalize out the global warming signal. It should at least trend up and down at the same rate as NOAA but have less of a negative bias. Congratulations on the new baby and love the site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Congratulations on the new baby and love the site. Please let me know about anything else you want added. I am going to attempt a shorter time scale MEI at some point as well, like perhaps a rolling 1 month average that updates daily or something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 3 hours ago, BlizzardWx said: Please let me know about anything else you want added. I am going to attempt a shorter time scale MEI at some point as well, like perhaps a rolling 1 month average that updates daily or something like that. So far, really just the vp amomalies, which I already mentioned...but there is already really a wealth of quality data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Posting the alleged new CFS DJF snowfall map for the laughs. If this somehow happened I'd probably be happy. It would be the first above average seasonal snowfall I've had in a decade. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago warm and rainy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: warm and rainy Always a safe bet south of NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Always a safe bet south of NYC. this is stronger and further east than 1997. why is anyone remotely hopeful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 31 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is stronger and further east than 1997. why is anyone remotely hopeful Oh I lost hope decades ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 21 minutes ago Share Posted 21 minutes ago 47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Oh I lost hope decades ago Forgetting, of course, that the warmest December on record at BWI, 12/15, was followed the next month with the single biggest snowstorm on record during a strong Niño. Not to mention the 3rd or 4th largest snowfall in 2/83 was an east based strong Niño. You should know better that's how it works around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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