Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.

Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384

[JenkinsJinkies]

9 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Not just snow one day and 70 the next day.

Just like 16-17, a Niña.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.

The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would he a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would he a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught.

Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC.

[Weather Will]

JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections.  Any comments from the experts?

[WxUSAF]

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections.  Any comments from the experts?

Roundy and others have shown that’s temporary. Maybe it knocks a tenth or two of the eventual peak. Will still be a record.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Roundy and others have shown that’s temporary. Maybe it knocks a tenth or two of the eventual peak. Will still be a record.

Yep, it's been on the Cfs2 plot for a couple weeks and you can see the reduction of red later this month on this 850 anomaly pic before the mother of all WWB of this Niño hits mid to late October. 

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections.  Any comments from the experts?

I’ve been following this closely. CFSv2 has dropped RONI peak from +3.5 to +3.0 over last month or so due to August pause. That’s just a pause though and notable 3.4 warming has finally resumed. But I don’t see it catching back up. Thus,  I’m currently at +3.0 for my educated guess.

 The BoM is way up at +3.6 and will likely bust too high like it did in ‘23. However, its SST anomalies are based on a dataset that’s ~0.3 to 0.4 warmer than ERSST, which NOAA uses, and which just adds confusion.
 
 Keep in mind that 1+2 has recently been strong thus making it the most E based on record for early Sept. beating 1997.