Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Well that does seem like the 2 options. Probably no middle ground, so weird that he sorta averaged them together lol

Yea that was my thought also. Sometimes an average when there are two distinct sub sets within the analogs is the least likely outcome!  I get it that some feel pressured to make a definitive forecast but the truth is a good forecast would be to say “we have an elevated risk of a historic snowstorm this winter, it’s going to be wet, but it might end up too warm and in that case a snowless winter and it’s about 50/50 odds”. If people aren’t smart enough to digest some nuance and ambiguity oh well. Fake certainty does no one any good. 

[Jersey Andrew]

59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Well that does seem like the 2 options. Probably no middle ground, so weird that he sorta averaged them together lol

Can you explain why a 2009-2010 type winter is on the table or unlikely again?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Can you explain why a 2009-2010 type winter is on the table or unlikely again?

I think it’s unlikely we’ll have that long of a period with below normal temps that allowed us to have that incredible run. I think a 2015-16 scenario would be on the table, but also 97-98. Very boom or bust winter seems likely. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

This year’s contest is going to have an epic spread.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

This year’s contest is going to have an epic spread.

I mean you can say 1.2" or 35" and have equal chances of being right or wrong, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think it’s unlikely we’ll have that long of a period with below normal temps that allowed us to have that incredible run. I think a 2015-16 scenario would be on the table, but also 97-98. Very boom or bust winter seems likely. 

Super ninos in order from 65-66: Boom, bust, boom, bust, boom....I'm a bit concered we're due for bust again based on that random pattern 

[Steve25]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Super ninos in order from 65-66: Boom, bust, boom, bust, boom....I'm a bit concered we're due for bust again based on that random pattern 

The WDI clears this. 

Going on 11 years without even a pure 6-8+ inch snowfall. I don’t think it gets talked about enough how dreadful of a stretch that is. I feel like it gets talked about that we haven’t had an HECS or MECS in a decade, but honestly a good portion of the region hasn’t even had a SECS in that time

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

The WDI clears this. 

Going on 11 years without even a pure 6-8+ inch snowfall. I don’t think it gets talked about enough how dreadful of a stretch that is. I feel like it gets talked about that we haven’t had an HECS or MECS in a decade, but honestly a good portion of the region hasn’t even had a SECS in that time

WDI hasn't worked for awhile, man...used to be 3-4 years for a foot, 6-7 years for 2 feet...this is the longest stretch without a SECS in my brief lifetime. But not getting any out of two niños (23-24 & the upcoming one) would be an unusual level of futility, though. Let's hope this one delivers.

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, CAPE said:

Good site, but an important snowstorm from 2009-10 is missing.

Hmm, can I call a friend...assuming I can find someone to call a friend? 

Seriously, can't think of what you're referring to???

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hmm, can I call a friend...assuming I can find someone to call a friend? 

Seriously, can't think of what you're referring to???

Could be December 2009. That was a big one that got overshadowed by February 2010.

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hmm, can I call a friend...assuming I can find someone to call a friend? 

Seriously, can't think of what you're referring to???

Jan 30th 2010. 5-8" storm with some locally higher amounts- more east/south including SNJ(Ray's area). Important because we hadn't had any snow since the pre Xmas Dec blizzard, Ji was was about to have a grand mal meltdown; it was a cold powder smoke job with temps in the teens; it looked like a miss south a couple days prior, and it set the stage for what was to become probably the most epic 10 day period of snow we have seen in our lifetimes.

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/StormReports/January302010.pdf

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean you can say 1.2" or 35" and have equal chances of being right or wrong, lol

There’ll be two camps. Some will go warm and snowless, and others will call for at least one HECS event.

Toss up, but I may go the former and then later root against my own forecast. 

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Could be December 2009. That was a big one that got overshadowed by February 2010.

That was in the list for 2009-10. The one I am referring to is missing.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

There’ll be two camps. Some will go warm and snowless, and others will call for at least one HECS event.

Toss up, but I may go the former and then later root against my own forecast. 

Maybe something in the middle is possible? With a bit of luck and timing, why not a couple light to moderate events and a big coastal storm? I don't think it has to be binary. We are in uncharted waters to an extent, so who really knows? (no one)

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe something in the middle is possible? With a bit of luck and timing, why not a couple light to moderate events and a big coastal storm? I don't think it has to be binary. We are in uncharted waters to an extent, so who really knows? (no one)

Its possible, but the least likely outcome as psuhoffman says. It happened in 23-24 when that nino didn’t fully couple. This time it’s going to be even stronger and the PDO is rising, should be a well coupled event. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think it’s unlikely we’ll have that long of a period with below normal temps that allowed us to have that incredible run. I think a 2015-16 scenario would be on the table, but also 97-98. Very boom or bust winter seems likely. 

Getting all you snow in 24 hours and have it melt off in two days would be heart breaking. 

[mitchnick]

53 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Jan 30th 2010. 5-8" storm with some locally higher amounts- more east/south including SNJ(Ray's area). Important because we hadn't had any snow since the pre Xmas Dec blizzard, Ji was was about to have a grand mal meltdown; it was a cold powder smoke job with temps in the teens; it looked like a miss south a couple days prior, and it set the stage for what was to become probably the most epic 10 day period of snow we have seen in our lifetimes.

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/StormReports/January302010.pdf

Ahh, yes. It wasn't on his list because it basically missed NJ & SE PA. Pretty much was a miss in my current location.  Probably <1" imby. My old place in Linthicum had 5". I had to drop my wife off at Hopkins for her sister's surgery as the flurries had just started. But when I  was coming west on Lombard Street, the steady snow was already about a third of the way down from the top of the USF&G building. Literally looked fake, but baby it was real! Lol

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ahh, yes. It wasn't on his list because it basically missed NJ & SE PA. Pretty much was a miss in my current location.  Probably <1" imby. My old place in Linthicum had 5". I had to drop my wife off at Hopkins for her sister's surgery as the flurries had just started. But when I  was coming west on Lombard Street, the steady snow was already about a third of the way down from the top of the USF&G building. Literally looked fake, but baby it was real! Lol

Nah it should be on the list. He is NJ focused, and central and esp southern Jersey had a legit snowstorm(see the link I posted with snowfall reports). There were 8-10" amounts reported in SNJ. He simply missed one, which is forgivable- his site is awesome overall.

[Weather Will]

For this winter, the long range models show an active jet stream (storm track) with above normal precipitation.  I am expecting a lot of storms to track.... rain/ ice/ snow TBD.  With a little luck, hopefully everyone cashes in!

 

[EC609]

Looks like more of a classic North and West type Winter.

[MillvilleWx]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea that was my thought also. Sometimes an average when there are two distinct sub sets within the analogs is the least likely outcome!  I get it that some feel pressured to make a definitive forecast but the truth is a good forecast would be to say “we have an elevated risk of a historic snowstorm this winter, it’s going to be wet, but it might end up too warm and in that case a snowless winter and it’s about 50/50 odds”. If people aren’t smart enough to digest some nuance and ambiguity oh well. Fake certainty does no one any good. 

It's going to snow, or it won't, my man 

[psuhoffman]

16 hours ago, CAPE said:

Maybe something in the middle is possible? With a bit of luck and timing, why not a couple light to moderate events and a big coastal storm? I don't think it has to be binary. We are in uncharted waters to an extent, so who really knows? (no one)

It's possible, but the history on super Nino's would imply the last likely outcome is that "in between" scenario.  The key is going to be the exact location of two features.  The North Pac low and the AO/NAO high/block.  These two features showed up in almost all the analogs.  But there is a balancing act on how they play off each other.  The further east the Pac low is the worse it is for us.  The further southwest the NAO/AO high is...for instance if it ends up centered over Quebec instead of truly in the NAO domain...the worse.. about half the super nino's that combo ended up toxic...the PAC low too far east blasting pac puke across the whole continent all winter...and the AO/NAO high too far southwest so that it didn't help block down even domestic cold from canada but instead just "blocked" the pac puke over the lower 48 all winter...and in those winters it was simply mild and wet all winter.  The more favorable winters, that combo was more favorable, enough so that we were able to get some windows and cash in on one or two of the STJ waves for a huge snowstorm.  There weren't many examples of in between.  2024 maybe but that was a really odd winter where a strong nino never acted like it and I don't expect that to happen again give the combo of how strong this is and the PDO seeming to be coming off the peak of its cycle.  

[stormy]

The 2 historically closest analogs for 26-27 are 97 - 98 and 15 - 16 at approx +2.2.

They were both wet but snowfall was wild!! 

 97 - 98 was a western highlands snow delight with nearly 40 inches at Staunton/Blacksburg.  Huge disappointment at Winchester and D.C.  with less than 1 inch.

15 - 16  found 26 inches at my place, Winchester 32 and D.C. 22.

More than +2.0 is highly favored to be wet but correct AO and NAO blocking is important to get cold air into the mix.

We just can't know at this time.  We should know by March 15.

[Steve25]

23 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

WDI hasn't worked for awhile, man...used to be 3-4 years for a foot, 6-7 years for 2 feet...this is the longest stretch without a SECS in my brief lifetime. But not getting any out of two niños (23-24 & the upcoming one) would be an unusual level of futility, though. Let's hope this one delivers.

I mean, the longer we go without one, the more due we become. Unless we’re considering the possibility that it’ll never happen again, which would be pretty absurd. 

Also, this period without a SECS isn’t just long for our lifetimes. It’s one for history. BWI has blown past the longest streak of below average snowfall winters since data started being collected. With that being the case, I’d venture to assume this is the longest the Baltimore area has went without a SECS in history, probably by a good margin. 

That’s why I say, this is not just some bummer of a stretch. This is historically lousy. 

[LordBaltimore]

People laugh off the wdi but climate isn't a poisson process. The odds of getting a big snow event should presumably go up after going through years that dont structurally support big snow events assuming that those structural patterns must relax. 

[IronTy]

Something tells me weather weenies don't make for good gamblers in Vegas.  

[TSSN+]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It's possible, but the history on super Nino's would imply the last likely outcome is that "in between" scenario.  The key is going to be the exact location of two features.  The North Pac low and the AO/NAO high/block.  These two features showed up in almost all the analogs.  But there is a balancing act on how they play off each other.  The further east the Pac low is the worse it is for us.  The further southwest the NAO/AO high is...for instance if it ends up centered over Quebec instead of truly in the NAO domain...the worse.. about half the super nino's that combo ended up toxic...the PAC low too far east blasting pac puke across the whole continent all winter...and the AO/NAO high too far southwest so that it didn't help block down even domestic cold from canada but instead just "blocked" the pac puke over the lower 48 all winter...and in those winters it was simply mild and wet all winter.  The more favorable winters, that combo was more favorable, enough so that we were able to get some windows and cash in on one or two of the STJ waves for a huge snowstorm.  There weren't many examples of in between.  2024 maybe but that was a really odd winter where a strong nino never acted like it and I don't expect that to happen again give the combo of how strong this is and the PDO seeming to be coming off the peak of its cycle.  

It’s going to snow or I’m coming over to your house and putting up it is all your fault signs in the yard