May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[Brian5671]

yep sunny windy and up to 66 here

[metagraphica]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep sunny windy and up to 66 here

Had a couple of good gusts as the warmer air suddenly flooded in a little while ago.

[dendrite]

3 brutal days here…W Th F. Mostly 40s/low 50s and rain. I don’t think we’ll warm sector this evening.

[powderfreak]

43F and rain here in town… 40F at 1500ft.  32F at 3600ft.

Brutal.

[metagraphica]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3 brutal days here…W Th F. Mostly 40s/low 50s and rain. I don’t think we’ll warm sector this evening.

 

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

43F and rain here in town… 40F at 1500ft.  32F at 3600ft.

Brutal.

GWDLT. 

Sun just popped out here. Should be a good afternoon before whatever rain we get arrives late this evening.  Up to 63 now.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

 

GWDLT. 

Sun just popped out here. Should be a good afternoon before whatever rain we get arrives late this evening.  Up to 63 now.

We still need all of the rain we can get so no complaints…yet. It’s not like we’re missing out on 80° and sun…just have to keep the shades closed for 72hrs.

[weatherwiz]

Warm sectoring here. Clouds breaking with a beautiful murky sky blue sky 

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Today won't be terrible here  once we get this warm front north. 65-70 most of CT. 

Not sure I can say the same about here.  Currently light rain and 42.8°

[Damage In Tolland]

63 with some sun this afternoon. Not terrible 

[ineedsnow]

some here will lose it if the 12z GFS and 12z Euro AI have a clue

[Torch Tiger]

12z euro ai has some heaters. Who losing it? 

[Typhoon Tip]

like.   some in here will lose it if any kind of weather happens ?   

not sure what was so distracting, warm or cold, about any model run for that matter this morning.

[weatherwiz]

back to clouded over and dark and having to put a light on. Need to get the clapper with how many times I have to turn on/off the light because of this crap

[CoastalWx]

We sun. We buns.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

12z euro ai has some heaters. Who losing it? 

A few days then we cool 

[SouthCoastMA]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

A few days then we cool 

Looks more like temporary mild downs into the 60's/70s at times in the longer range - but it seems like the cold regime is pretty much wiped out after Friday

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

3 brutal days here…W Th F. Mostly 40s/low 50s and rain. I don’t think we’ll warm sector this evening.

If we have to endure 3 awful May days, I wish it would RAIN - the 20 months 9/24 thru 4/26 have racked up a deficit of 21.2".  Not mid-1960s but troubling.  Last week's 3-day soaking rain dropped a modest 0.62"; 2" would be nice.

[Torch Tiger]

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

A few days then we cool 

Just like the may 05 disaster wheel o noreasters. Epic bust

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Looks more like temporary mild downs into the 60's/70s at times in the longer range - but it seems like the cold regime is pretty much wiped out after Friday

We're moving into a regime where average temperatures and at times quite above average will win out. Any periods of below average will be the product of fronts moving through...this could net 3-4 days of below average temps because it may take a bit to rebuild the greater warmth but the cycle we've been in is coming to an end.

[Damage In Tolland]

There is no cool. None 

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah beyond Friday, any substantial or sustained cool wx is long long gone

[vortex95]

On 5/12/2026 at 5:53 AM, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a decent soaker  here later tomorrow until Friday morning. Seems like it mostly ends by late Friday morning here.

Captain obvious strikes again!  LOL.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Oh yeah

[Damage In Tolland]

Deep summer locking in early 

[vortex95]

23 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

X post is hype for attention.  And bandwagon/sample size logical fallacies -- "nobody I have connected with in the community wants this to happen."  So this person's connections are all encompassing and represent the *entire* wx community?  That's pretty narrow-minded and arrogant.  And who exactly is saying they don't like the RRFS?  Vague proclamations are a red flag.

This reminded me of last year when the DoD was going to stop the data dissemination of the 3 legacy DMSP polar orbiter satellite, and the TC community was up in arms b/c of the loss of the microwave data, acting like this would cripple TC forecasting.  Well, there are other satellite like this other countires have we have access to, and the DoD had already launched the first in a set of replacement satellites for this legacy batch.

More and more, ppl post stuff for mere engagement bait, looking for the 15 microseconds of fame.

And the flip side, as if 12km NAM is great?  It hasn't been tweaked in 10+ years and is often useless after 36 hr.  The 3km NAM issues w/ it overdoing its QPF, esp. orographics, do we need that still?  Ppl who don't understand models use this 3 km NAM flaw and run w/ it as if 50" snowfalls in SNE will happen!  Getting rid of NAM and it derivatives is a good thing.

These days ppl will latch onto any change and act like it is end of days.  They prey on the human basic instinct to fear change.  Not all change is bad by default, and sometimes you have to move on for things to advance.

Yes, the RRFS has its share of issues (SPC noted it has problems w/ the BL for convection), but what model does not have it share of issues?  And as we get higher and higher resolution for models and try to directly simulate directly atmospheric process, rather than emulate, the challenge here is not linear.

RRFS been in test and evaluation mode for some time, and available for all to see, so it not just like cold turkey,  The HRRR will be run in tandem likely for some time (look at how long the NAM has stuck around).  
 

[dendrite]

John is a long time poster here. "Rufus" seemed pretty bad in some of the winter events this season. We posted it frequently and it seemed to be on its own island (not the correct one either).

But we'll see how it goes. 

[vortex95]

19 hours ago, dendrite said:

June
July
May
August
September
April
December
October
March
November
February
January

30 days hath September, April, June, and November!

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

30 days hath September, April, June, and November!

 

My new top 12 power rankings

June
June
June
July
July
July
May
May
May
August
August
December

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Part of the degrading in forecasting too is all of these stupid products that exist.

Model snowfall maps, Freezing Rain Accumulation maps, Supercell Composite Parameter, Significant Tornado Parameter, the stupid hazard type at the bottom right of the SHARPpy forecast soundings, maybe throw updraft helicity swaths in here too

More is not always better. Too many models as it is, so this is good "cleaning house." 

They were supposed to stop the HWRF and HMON before last hurricane season, but haven't.  HAFS has proven itself big time, so just move on.  As I have said, having too many models that have less skill overall hang around just allows hype-masters to find the ONE model that shows "what they want to see," and run w/ that.
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My new top 12 power rankings

June
June
June
July
July
July
May
May
May
August
August
December

That a top 12 bummer for you