sussexcountyobs Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Showery rain/mix has changed to all wet snow. 36.9F 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 28 minutes ago, nycwinter said: you have screens in your window? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 38 minutes ago, MANDA said: As they should be...it is mid/late April not mid/late May. Not to mention this "chill" was well advertised. I wait until Memorial Day weekend up this way to do flowers and warmer weather veggies. I usually plant the warmer weather vegetables during the first few days of May. By then it's usually safe here, but I know you're way up in NW Jersey where you can still get frost in early May. You're wise to wait until at least mid May up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 43 minutes ago, nycwinter said: you have screens in your window? Who doesn't have screens in their windows? With no screens, what's the point of windows except for light. All sorts of bugs and critters will be coming right in with the windows open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Rule here is never plant sensitive plants like tomatoes till May 15th..I have in some cool weather vegetables. I actually put in the some early girl tomatoes that I don’t care if I loose. But I’m in one of the warmest parts of this forum. I bet they will be fine if it gets to 32 for an hour or two. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Maybe some clearing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Down to 43 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I usually plant the warmer weather vegetables during the first few days of May. By then it's usually safe here, but I know you're way up in NW Jersey where you can still get frost in early May. You're wise to wait until at least mid May up there. I'm not no much worried about a frost or freeze once to like 5/10 up here but I have found if you wait a few more weeks beyond that the soils warm up and things just seem to do better. Of course that varies from year to year with the actual weather conditions as to how fast the soils warm. Have found with cool soils things just tend to "sit there" until it really warms up and with cool soils if we hit a wet stretch things have a higher chance of rotting out. The cooler weather crops are a different story but I don't plant much of those these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Need a soaker but nothing in sight. The big cooldown is 3 days then back into the mid to upper 60's and dry Running out of time down here where we have synoptic larger systems that can bring much rain. In the summer odds are that most rain is inland with pop up storm activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 A strong late-season cold shot lies ahead. The cold front that will usher in the unseasonably cool air is now moving across the region, bringing with it some light rain. Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.33" or less. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle 50s on on Monday and Tuesday in New York City. Tuesday morning will see the temperature fall into the middle or upper 30s in the City. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +6.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.193 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Snowflakes in the air in Port Jeff Station. Crazy. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: A strong late-season cold shot lies ahead. The cold front that will usher in the unseasonably cool air is now moving across the region, bringing with it some light rain. Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.33" or less. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle 50s on on Monday and Tuesday in New York City. Tuesday morning will see the temperature fall into the middle or upper 30s in the Cit. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +6.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.193 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Your weekly ENSO tracking showing signs of the impending rapid rise i am sure you will be showing us in the coming weeks. Seems like many of us are excited about this Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 25 minutes ago, bkviking said: Your weekly ENSO tracking showing signs of the impending rapid rise i am sure you will be showing us in the coming weeks. Seems like many of us are excited about this Nino. Yes. I suspect that we’ll see an acceleration in the ENSO warming over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Just cold rain here. 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. I suspect that we’ll see an acceleration in the ENSO warming over the next few weeks. We dont want it too strong for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 hour ago, MANDA said: I'm not no much worried about a frost or freeze once to like 5/10 up here but I have found if you wait a few more weeks beyond that the soils warm up and things just seem to do better. Of course that varies from year to year with the actual weather conditions as to how fast the soils warm. Have found with cool soils things just tend to "sit there" until it really warms up and with cool soils if we hit a wet stretch things have a higher chance of rotting out. The cooler weather crops are a different story but I don't plant much of those these days. As far as the cooler weather vegetables I planted Broccoli, lettuce and radishes in late March. All doing very well. I'll start picking lettuce in about a week. I've had to water a lot though with this terribly dry pattern. I got only .04" from today's showers so not happy about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We dont want it too strong for winter. Yeah a weak El Nino would give us a decent chance, but unfortunately the signs point to this one being strong. I'd much rather have a La Nina like the last couple winters than a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 43 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah a weak El Nino would give us a decent chance, but unfortunately the signs point to this one being strong. I'd much rather have a La Nina like the last couple winters than a strong El Nino. A west based mod niño would be good as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Barely any rain today. Cold. Awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: We dont want it too strong for winter. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 i don't how next year we could beat this past winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: A west based mod niño would be good as well It would be great if we can finally get some help from the PDO and get the warm bath water out of the western Pacific. That should tamp down the ridiculous Pacific jet but a super Nino will just flood the continent with mild air and overwhelm any other positive trend. We’d have to hope for one huge STJ driven event like Jan 2016 or Feb 1983. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 I don't agree that you don't want the El Nino Strong, as long as it stays west-based. Number of examples is too low, and Stronger La Nina's (opposite) correlate with big SE ridge in the Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 36 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i don't how next year we could beat this past winter! We won't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Waiting for the rain today was like waiting for paint to dry. When it did finally get here it felt like I missed a spot as only .07" fell here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 4 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah a weak El Nino would give us a decent chance, but unfortunately the signs point to this one being strong. I'd much rather have a La Nina like the last couple winters than a strong El Nino. A strong nino is likely a 3 week winter like 15-16-hopefully with a big blizzard in there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't agree that you don't want the El Nino Strong, as long as it stays west-based. Number of examples is too low, and Stronger La Nina's (opposite) correlate with big SE ridge in the Winter 2009-10 was a west-based el nino, correct? 2010-11 is probably an exception to the strong la nina/SE ridge correlation because we got a really good winter here as well. Was there any ridge that winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 33° here this am, record low for date. Again fell short yesterday with just 0.07" rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Low of 31.6. Most of the moisture from yesterday's showers froze into a heavy frost. Lots of ice on rooftops, cars, and grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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