yoda Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 That was fast... watch up until 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 1 minute ago, yoda said: That was fast... watch up until 8pm SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-013-015-021-023-025-027-031-033-043-510-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-107-113-139-153-157-165-171-187- 510-600-610-660-683-685-840-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE LOUDOUN MADISON PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK WINCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065-071-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY JEFFERSON MINERAL MORGAN PENDLETON $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe. Per usual, the HRRR is tracking too low on DPs and the NAM is too high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe. Not sure I'd be using the HRRR much today given it mixes out the low-levels too much and will be too low on dews by several degrees. Meanwhile, latest HRRR for 1pm vs radar: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Just now, MN Transplant said: Per usual, the HRRR is tracking too low on DPs and the NAM is too high. Split the difference and it's a standard Mid Atlantic Slight Risk™. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 It has begun Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC001-043-WVC065-201815- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0052.260520T1737Z-260520T1815Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Allegany County in western Maryland... Northeastern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 137 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Barnes Gap, or 10 miles west of Hancock, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Hancock, Berkeley Springs, Pecktonville, Big Pool, Little Orleans, Cherry Run, Lineburg, Spohrs Crossroads, Spruce Pine Hollow, Forest Park, Bellegrove, Sleepy Creek, and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3972 7829 3972 7801 3962 7802 3962 7803 3961 7804 3964 7843 3971 7842 TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 267DEG 21KT 3967 7837 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 20 Author Share Posted May 20 Watching the stuff to the west of Front Royal/Luray areas for the greater DC area later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 20 Author Share Posted May 20 I always "forget" - but lightning is SUCH a good indicator a lot of times in terms of how a storm is trending. The one well NW of Luray has COPIOUS lightning with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe. Does the HRRR effectively kill everything out west right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 26 minutes ago, mappy said: Does the HRRR effectively kill everything out west right now? It just doesn’t even initiate with them. Can’t kill what you’re not modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: It just doesn’t even initiate with them. Can’t kill what you’re not modeling. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 SPC issued another MD for our area, seems to indicate things are continuing to ramp up somewhat: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 WPC issued meso for heavy rain and isolated flash flooding for the STW area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Damn that's some heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Missed the D.C. area but certainly verified northwest of I-95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 The only thing I saw today was remotely interesting / impressive was the straight line wind damage near Buckeystown in Frederick Co. Line of power poles down (though there is reason to believe they were poorly inserted / already leaning) and some small pines that were snapped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 There is a clear trend towards slowing down the front on Wednesday, which means that SPC will likely need to adjust their MRGL back to the northwest to include more of the local area. The shear/instability combo might even support a SLGT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 15 hours ago, high risk said: There is a clear trend towards slowing down the front on Wednesday, which means that SPC will likely need to adjust their MRGL back to the northwest to include more of the local area. The shear/instability combo might even support a SLGT. Day 2 SLGT now includes DC. MRGL extends north to the MD/PA border. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 Whatever threat the DC-Baltimore area has today will be an early show. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Tomorrow evening could be interesting near the northern parts of the LWX CWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 6 hours ago, yoda said: Tomorrow evening could be interesting near the northern parts of the LWX CWA Yes, there definitely is a shot that something sneaks in along northeast Maryland near the Mason-Dixon Line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes, there definitely is a shot that something sneaks in along northeast Maryland near the Mason-Dixon Line. Might sneak into my area. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Looks like the SLGT risk and MRGL risk lines were nudged southward a tad on 1300z SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like the SLGT risk and MRGL risk lines were nudged southward a tad on 1300z SPC OTLK Yup. Looks like down to I-70 to I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 53 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like the SLGT risk and MRGL risk lines were nudged southward a tad on 1300z SPC OTLK The 3 HiRes Windows are notably early with the convection which would give us a fighting chance, as the shear is actually decent. The HRRR, NAM Nest, and RRFS are too late with the arrival of any storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Is this early frontal passage going to hurt our chances along and west of 95 later? I kind of expect anything that fires up later will be eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Is this early frontal passage going to hurt our chances along and west of 95 later? I kind of expect anything that fires up later will be eastern areas. This little line moving through now is NOT the main front; it’s some sort of pre-frontal trough feature. The front won’t move through until later tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Probably will stay north of us... but... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0998.html Mesoscale Discussion 0998 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia...and northern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 061507Z - 061730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage and intensity through the late morning/afternoon with an increase in damaging wind potential. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues south and east across portions of eastern Indiana into Ohio, with occasional strong to isolated severe gusts (50-60 mph). It is uncertain how this will evolve downstream, with guidance showing potential for maintenance and intensification along the remaining outflow later in the afternoon. Gradual increase in forcing for ascent will occur this afternoon as strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the area with the trough across the Great Lakes. Filtered heating is expected through broken mid-level cloud cover. This in combination with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additionally, steepening low-level lapse rates are expected, supporting downward transport of higher momentum flow aloft to the surface. Additional downstream development is likely with potential for several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind through the afternoon. While exact timing of this threat remains uncertain, a watch will likely be needed to cover this potential by the afternoon. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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