2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[yoda]

That was fast... watch up until 8pm

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

That was fast... watch up until 8pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC001-003-005-013-015-021-023-025-027-031-033-043-510-210000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY             ANNE ARUNDEL        BALTIMORE
CARROLL              CECIL               FREDERICK
GARRETT              HARFORD             HOWARD
MONTGOMERY           PRINCE GEORGES      WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$

---

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-107-113-139-153-157-165-171-187-
510-600-610-660-683-685-840-210000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON            CLARKE              CULPEPER
FAIRFAX              FAUQUIER            FREDERICK
GREENE               LOUDOUN             MADISON
PAGE                 PRINCE WILLIAM      RAPPAHANNOCK
ROCKINGHAM           SHENANDOAH          WARREN




VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           FAIRFAX             FALLS CHURCH
HARRISONBURG         MANASSAS            MANASSAS PARK
WINCHESTER
$$

---

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065-071-210000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/

WV
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY             GRANT               HAMPSHIRE
HARDY                JEFFERSON           MINERAL
MORGAN               PENDLETON
$$

[MN Transplant]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe.

Per usual, the HRRR is tracking too low on DPs and the NAM is too high.

[Ellinwood]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe.

Not sure I'd be using the HRRR much today given it mixes out the low-levels too much and will be too low on dews by several degrees. Meanwhile, latest HRRR for 1pm vs radar:

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Per usual, the HRRR is tracking too low on DPs and the NAM is too high.

Split the difference and it's a standard Mid Atlantic Slight Risk™.

[yoda]

It has begun

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MDC001-043-WVC065-201815-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0052.260520T1737Z-260520T1815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Northeastern Allegany County in western Maryland...
  Northeastern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 137 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Barnes Gap,
  or 10 miles west of Hancock, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hancock, Berkeley Springs, Pecktonville, Big Pool, Little Orleans,
  Cherry Run, Lineburg, Spohrs Crossroads, Spruce Pine Hollow, Forest
  Park, Bellegrove, Sleepy Creek, and Shady Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7829 3972 7801 3962 7802 3962 7803
      3961 7804 3964 7843 3971 7842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 267DEG 21KT 3967 7837

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

[Kmlwx]

Watching the stuff to the west of Front Royal/Luray areas for the greater DC area later. 

[Kmlwx]

I always "forget" - but lightning is SUCH a good indicator a lot of times in terms of how a storm is trending. The one well NW of Luray has COPIOUS lightning with it. 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest HRRR is essentially a bust. Some hit or miss storms, but nothing that would amount to more than half an inch of rain, and certainly not severe.

Does the HRRR effectively kill everything out west right now? 

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, mappy said:

Does the HRRR effectively kill everything out west right now? 

It just doesn’t even initiate with them. Can’t kill what you’re not modeling. 

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It just doesn’t even initiate with them. Can’t kill what you’re not modeling. 

Thanks!

[batmanbrad]

SPC issued another MD for our area, seems to indicate things are continuing to ramp up somewhat:

 

[WxUSAF]

WPC issued meso for heavy rain and isolated flash flooding for the STW area 

[ravensrule]

Damn that's some heavy rain.