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March 2026


snowman19
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After some overnight showers and perhaps a thundershower, it will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow with highs reaching the lower and middle 50s. 

The weekend will start on a cold note with the low temperature likely near or even somewhat below freezing in New York City and high temperatures in the middle 40s on Saturday. Sunday will become somewhat milder.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -9.10 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.529 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.8° (3.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Been a very warm March

I can't say I'm surprised. I predicted warm March and April at the beginning of February. I just knew that the cold was going to end at some point. We had 3 solid BN temperature months. The last time it happened was January-March 2015. April 2015 turned warmer, and May 2015 was near record warm. Also, sometimes the cold and snowy winters just come to a sudden end. Just look at 2009-10. After February, things just got warmer in March and temps reached 90 in the first week of April.

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