March Madness

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

2011 was incredible here too…I believe this area had the deepest pack in New England at the end of Jan/beginning of Feb. it was astounding…roofs caving in literally everywhere.  Pack had big meat in it too. 

Jan 2011 was okay where I am...like 20".

[UnitedWx]

57 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know that the last storm was compared to 1978 but 78 had a wider footprint.

Every time someone posts the '78 "official" measurements, I will say it time and time again. One of THE most terribly measured,  and inaccurate snow total maps ever... talking the Farmington Valley area specifically 

[Typhoon Tip]

It won't be that way  ..c'mon.   People are just angst/frustrating the inevitable ending of winter, just like every year, so their venting by overselling the downside and scapegoating spring as a means to vent. Ha.

And yeah, folks are just having fun with whoa-ism hyperbole, too. 

Still, there'll be good stretches. It is true, the bad stretches can be, and probably will be, particularly bad at times - made torturous whenever the stuck Farmington front separates 38 F in Lowell while it's 70 in NYC.  But there'll be d-slope dandy days once in a while. There could also be one or two ridge anomaly patterns along the course.  

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still enjoyed the chase immensely, though....you have to have an immense degree of passion for winter weather to spend the amount of time on it that I do as a hobbyist.

I’ve got to hand it to you that in your outlook you nailed Worcester’s snowfall even when I thought it was shocking by my southern standards.

And that’s assuming it’s all over and there’s no more meaningful snow to come.

It was a very good winter with deep snowpack from late January to early March (it won’t survive the blowtorch) with some snowpack for like 80-90% of DJF.

[Typhoon Tip]

This has gotten smeared a bit.  

For me, the warm up wasn't really until the 10th all along. 

The hemispheric move toward that destiny takes some work. Begins spanning the first week.  These overrunning looks are really just systemic consequence in transitioning from a winter troposphere to a warmer one.  That's bound to be noisy/error prone in guidance as to what happens and when.  But one thing we are seeing is that the warmth likely wins by the 10th, amplitude of which to be determined.  

How long it lasts out there is unclear but obviousness to the time of the year would perfunctory argue that it regresses at some point before Apr 1.  The indexes are 50/50 at this time...  2010 and 2012s can happen, but we probably need another 50 years of CC before those become more common haha

 

[Chrisrotary12]

How I know I am checked out… first thing I loop in the morning is 850mb temperatures. Like what I see starting end of next week and really around the 10th as Tip mentions above. 

[Torch Tiger]

Hope the majority of cold dumps center-west. We can all agree

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 8 going into April.

Easter blizzard 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah overall, 2022 was the first time this area jacked since 2005, and before that 1996. So it really doesn't happen all that frequently like many people think. Going by PVD records, the top five are 2026, 1978, 1996, 2005, and 2022.

Outside of those, we have done good in several like you said but nothing S tier like out west. Jan 2011, Feb 2013, Jan 2015, Feb 2017, and Jan 2018 all dropped over a foot here, but then between Jan 2022 and Jan 2026 we got barely anything at all.

People say it's always SEMA but we've been screwed over for a long time too, and Rhode Island in particular! I remember for many years it seemed like every major storm had the entire state in a snow hole. 2022 and 2026 was their redemption I guess. 

 

Okay, that is recency bias, but they are prone to getting more vicious blizzard than other other locales when they do get them...that is more what I meant.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hope the majority of cold dumps center-west. We can all agree

Yea, -PNA from here on out, as expected....but that was also the case in March 2018, one of my two main strat analogs, along with 2001.

It won't be as cold, but not will it be prohibitive to snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I’ve got to hand it to you that in your outlook you nailed Worcester’s snowfall even when I thought it was shocking by my southern standards.

And that’s assuming it’s all over and there’s no more meaningful snow to come.

It was a very good winter with deep snowpack from late January to early March (it won’t survive the blowtorch) with some snowpack for like 80-90% of DJF.

This was my best outlook to date in the 11 years I have been doing it, but it wasn't perfect by any stretch. There are avenues for improvement that I will discuss in the post season analysis...most notably, I emphasized the thawing PT regimes too much in the composites, so the temp composites were not cold enough....thought H5 was very good. I pretty much nailed the progression of the strat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My KU window was off by like 6 days on the blizzard...was March 1-15.

[Fozz]

The GEFS has a very persistent ridge in the East from March 4th to the end of the run.

That’s why I’m starting to think after early next week, winter will be over. It was a very good run but I was hoping for a few more weeks.

[EastonSN+]

Can start to see the phase 8 effects here. Blocking weaker than I expected given the reversal.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Fozz said:

The GEFS has a very persistent ridge in the East from March 4th to the end of the run.

That’s why I’m starting to think after early next week, winter will be over. It was a very good run.

The GEFS takes longer to get to phase 8. Likely around the 20th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Can start to see the phase 8 effects here. Blocking weaker than I expected given the reversal.

That is bit too early to be impacted by the reversal...lag time is like 15 days at this juncture.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The GEFS has a very persistent ridge in the East from March 4th to the end of the run.

That’s why I’m starting to think after early next week, winter will be over. It was a very good run but I was hoping for a few more weeks.

Not over IMO.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not over IMO.

Yeah I can see a reload near mid-month...mentioned this yesterday. PV starts to get pressed down into Hudson Bay on ensembles....if that verifies, that's a LOT of cold not far away, so we'd prob have an additional threat or two if that's where it starts to settle. 

[MJOatleast7]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm ready for spring....45 and drizzle.

Meanwhile, early cherry blossoms in DC.

[Typhoon Tip]

Man... talk about radiative cooling .. all the way down to 3 degrees at FIT

 

[Typhoon Tip]

That looks really cold Monday afternoon through Wednesday.    Monday's eve is steeped in a sneaky Montreal Express; very efficient transport of low level syrup from western QUE/E Ontario.  Thickness say 520 to 525 but the sounding may be more upright with the coldest, relative to normal, being the lowest 300 mb space of the sounding.  It's all happening over a pan-dimensional snow pack, too.  

I bet we decouple and see (the season's last?) -0s lows in the interior around 4 am Tuesday morning.   Might even call that the local pattern nadir, and it's rising in principle through the 10th after that. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That looks really cold Monday afternoon through Wednesday.    Monday's eve is steeped in a sneaky Montreal Express; very efficient transport of low level syrup from western QUE/E Ontario.  Thickness say 520 to 525 but the sounding may be more upright with the coldest, relative to normal, being the lowest 300 mb space of the sounding.  It's all happening over a pan-dimensional snow pack, too.  

I bet we decouple and see the season's lost -0s lows in the interior around 4 am Tuesday morning. 

I was thinking the rad pits could have one last hurrah below 0F early next week. Cold high cresting over deep snow pack....that'll plummet regardless of when in the season it is occurring. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah from a 30,000’ view point 78 is king. But for PVD to EWB region, the snowfall and snow rates probably won’t ever be topped. I don’t think people realize how hard it snowed there. 

I feel like we’ve said this like 2-3x in the last 15 years. “This will never be topped” and then it is, and not to far in the future.

Not to get into wolfie favorite debate, but I think we’re seeing the extremes of CC play out kind of in real time. We’ve had some absolutely barren seasons recently, and then an all time blizzard.

Youre getting the lowest of the lows and highest of highs basically.

[Johnno]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Every time someone posts the '78 "official" measurements, I will say it time and time again. One of THE most terribly measured,  and inaccurate snow total maps ever... talking the Farmington Valley area specifically 

Interesting my father always talked about the storm and the amounts but it didn’t seem that impressive on these maps 

[Lava Rock]

How likely are those 50s and 60s in NNE around the 9th?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Greg]

1 hour ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Agreed. Seekonk is more in line with RI climo than the rest of SEMA. You guys definitely do better in coastals than RI does. It's very rare to get an RI jack. Even in 2005, I remember that Seekonk only got like 15" officially. Not sure how accurate that was though since it felt like way more than that as a kid. 2026 was by far the biggest storm for Seekonk on record. Snow maps from 1978 have us with like 20" here. 

Seekonk had 27" in '78.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I feel like we’ve said this like 2-3x in the last 15 years. “This will never be topped” and then it is, and not to far in the future.

Not to get into wolfie favorite debate, but I think we’re seeing the extremes of CC play out kind of in real time. We’ve had some absolutely barren seasons recently, and then an all time blizzard.

Youre getting the lowest of the lows and highest of highs basically.

I feel good saying that for PVD-EWB. At least not in my lifetime.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel good saying that for PVD-EWB. At least not in my lifetime.

Yeah that aint happening again there in our lifetimes. Sure, there will be more 30-burgers here and there for C/E MA....those do happen occasionally. But 40 burgers for Fall River and PVD do not. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Of course, I moved from here to Sandwich in 2020. 

and

Of course, I wasn't in Sandwich for Jan 27, 2015 

Missed both maxes due to bad timing. 

I won't complain much outside of those two storms though. For instance, 2/14/15 was epic in Acushnet

 

[Typhoon Tip]

His point has merit though.  

Related to, the definition of extremes is getting diminished by increasing frequency of them.  

Some would like to hide in the cozy euphemism that it is just cycles of nature playing out, and the gaslight of that evasion of reality is that yeah .. nature does have cycles.  But excluding that denial tactic ( which is either amoral, a straight question of competent intelligence/education/etc, or a mash up of all), the frequency increase graph is matching the CC graph... sort of like a Keeling Curve for events, not CO2.  haha.  

Nice cozy fit.   'Sides, math has already demoed that extremes increase in a d(climate).

Tongue in cheek aside...  you almost feel better about getting a repeat of the "extraordinary" now, than you would living in 1990.