March Madness

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do we?

 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought we just don’t know?

Some things we do know…no way we warm up to 60’s and 70’s…and stay there…not in mid and late March and April. Wish we did..but we don’t. That we know.  (Exception being 2012…which is as rare as a 1995-1996 and a 2014-2015 winter). 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam trying for Sunday 

Lol…right on cue. What timing.  

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah I mean just yesterday, today, tomorrow low 40’s and sun. Saturday is bluebird full sun and 50. Gonna take a beating.

It's an interesting op for temperature nerds like me. I'm hugely into the diurnal recovery stuff in the spring... for some weird fetish. ha    

This snow pack is pervasive and deep, and fresh and white and like a mirror.  Albedo is about intense as a second sun... astronauts in orbit have to wear sun glasses when passing proximal out our earth coordinates.  That will impede some heating potential in a static atmosphere.  But this atmosphere should be moving some... not sure how much that mixing offsets (if any) any of this.  There's some competing processes there for negative and positive feedbacks.  Interesting.  

I suspect we are colder at night in the interiors when decoupling these three nights.  Where cold accumulation over a cryosphere is deluxe proficient and so forth..  Then in the mornings, calm with nape sun but 900 feet over the tree tops, it's WSW flow moving along at 15 to 20kts..  The NAM sort of suggests this inversion offset to warming potential - tho taken to make the example, only.  The BOS FOUS grid

54000843631 00714 182013 43030400  
60000785726 00010 162412 42040500

This is Saturday at 12z (7am) and 18z (1pm) for Logan.  The wind there ("2013") is SW to WSW at 10 to 15kts in the middle boundary layer..about 500 feet over top the Prudential Tower, at 7am, and persists at 1pm.  The set of bold on the right is the temperatures at three sigma levels (distance from the ground in atmospheric pressure): 980 mb, 900 mb, 800 mbs.

You can kind of use these as loose proxy for various interpretations, for and against..  In this case, note the 980 ( near the ground), is 03. That means 3C.  At 900mb, about mid way up the boundary layer, it is a degree warmer at both intervals.  That's proooobably the NAM being "indirectly aware" of the limitation at lowest levels due to albedo feedback.  I don't think the model does any kind of discrete environmental initial sampling like physically asking whether atmosphere is standing barefoot on a frozen puddle, but it probably is getting a detection at the grid scale for some limits, some how.  I'm not sure... but, with a intense albedo in the region, some limitation intuitively fits.

Regardless, Saturday ( and the RH levels in this data above suggests mostly sunny), will have light winds that at times is seemingly calm, with nearing equinox sun power capable of burning Aryan youth.  It will be the first day that felt that way since probably last October.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Some things we do know…no way we warm up to 60’s and 70’s…and stay there…not in mid and late March and April. Wish we did..but we don’t. That we know.  (Exception being 2012…which is as rare as a 1995-1996 and a 2014-2015 winter). 

How do we define “stay there”? I guess when you say it will reload late March I took it as going back to the same pattern we’ve been in…which I would clap back with “we just don’t know”. Obviously 60s and 70s this early are always relegated to 1-5 days at most. But there’s been some good warmth stretches in March aside from 2012. I mentioned 98 the other day. 2010 was warm right through all of MAM. 2021 and 2016 had quite a few warm Mar and Apr days too.

But yeah, obviously no one is getting daily 60s and 70s in spring. That’s sorta rhetorical. 

[ORH_wxman]

Sunday could be an inch or two....we'll see. 

Beyond that next week it's kind of a disaster on model guidance....I could see another decent SWFE if things eject right, but it could also just end up as shredded mess or warmer if everything is delayed....hard to say. We definitely need to watch the Quebec highs....they've been undermodeled much of the winter in the medium range. That is no guarantee they will continue to be under modeled, but it's something to keep in the back of our minds. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

How do we define “stay there”? I guess when you say it will reload late March I took it as going back to the same pattern we’ve been in…which I would clap back with “we just don’t know”. Obviously 60s and 70s this early are always relegated to 1-5 days at most. But there’s been some good warmth stretches in March aside from 2012. I mentioned 98 the other day. 2010 was warm right through all of MAM. 2021 and 2016 had quite a few warm Mar and Apr days too.

But yeah, obviously no one is getting daily 60s and 70s in spring. That’s sorta rhetorical. 

Everyone always mentions 2012 for warmth in March, but forget 2010. My son was born March 16, 2010, when we brought him home on the 20th I was in shorts and tee shirt. Must have been around 75

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sunday could be an inch or two....we'll see. 

Beyond that next week it's kind of a disaster on model guidance....I could see another decent SWFE if things eject right, but it could also just end up as shredded mess or warmer if everything is delayed....hard to say. We definitely need to watch the Quebec highs....they've been undermodeled much of the winter in the medium range. That is no guarantee they will continue to be under modeled, but it's something to keep in the back of our minds. 

I haven’t seen any guidance in recent runs still showing a solid SWFE, you?

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How do we define “stay there”? I guess when you say it will reload late March I took it as going back to the same pattern we’ve been in…which I would clap back with “we just don’t know”. Obviously 60s and 70s this early are always relegated to 1-5 days at most. But there’s been some good warmth stretches in March aside from 2012. I mentioned 98 the other day. 2010 was warm right through all of MAM. 2021 and 2016 had quite a few warm Mar and Apr days too.

But yeah, obviously no one is getting daily 60s and 70s in spring. That’s sorta rhetorical. 

2016 - 2020 seemed to feature a balm blast every Feb, Mar, or Apr in that stretch.  Just sayn'

not sure what the conversation is otherwise haha

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Everyone always mentions 2012 for warmth in March, but forget 2010. My son was born March 16, 2010, when we brought him home on the 20th I was in shorts and tee shirt. Must have been around 75

Lol…he has the same birthday as me.  And yes, 2010 got nice quick, and lasted. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How do we define “stay there”? I guess when you say it will reload late March I took it as going back to the same pattern we’ve been in…which I would clap back with “we just don’t know”. Obviously 60s and 70s this early are always relegated to 1-5 days at most. But there’s been some good warmth stretches in March aside from 2012. I mentioned 98 the other day. 2010 was warm right through all of MAM. 2021 and 2016 had quite a few warm Mar and Apr days too.

But yeah, obviously no one is getting daily 60s and 70s in spring. That’s sorta rhetorical. 

What I meant by stay there, was consistent days in the 60’s and 70’s.  98% of the time it won’t last long.
 

 And sure, I certainly remember and agree that there’s been some solid stretches…I’d take that in a heartbeat.  But it looks(at least in the long range that it doesn’t seem to want to last this March)…but of course that’s very much subject to change too. 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…he has the same birthday as me.  And yes, 2010 got nice quick, and lasted. 

Oh wow, awesome man!

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Oh wow, awesome man!

Your son, me, and Cold Miser too. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Some things we do know…no way we warm up to 60’s and 70’s…and stay there…not in mid and late March and April. Wish we did..but we don’t. That we know.  (Exception being 2012…which is as rare as a 1995-1996 and a 2014-2015 winter). 

2014-2015 was followed by a record warm May (or at least close to it). One of the most remarkable pattern turnarounds in spring, right along with 2010.

[SnowGoose69]

31 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I haven’t seen any guidance in recent runs still showing a solid SWFE, you?

None really getting up into SNE but I think it still could.  I do believe though Sunday needs to go away or be very flat.  Its noticeable on many Op runs and individual ensembles that those which are amped or more intense Sunday as a whole are flat or nonexistent with the second event.   

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I haven’t seen any guidance in recent runs still showing a solid SWFE, you?

06z OP Euro

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

None really getting up into SNE but I think it still could.  I do believe though Sunday needs to go away or be very flat.  Its noticeable on many Op runs and individual ensembles that those which are amped or more intense Sunday as a whole are flat or nonexistent with the second event.   

Exactly and the recent icon is way north because it weakens Sundays wave.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just for fun ... but if your a spring enthusiast lookin' for a dopa hit, check out the CFS for March 12th

[metagraphica]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Just for fun ... but if your a spring enthusiast lookin' for a dopa hit, check out the CFS for March 12th

Yes please!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam trying for Sunday 

That’s been looking like 2-3/2-4 for a day or so now 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s been looking like 2-3/2-4 for a day or so now 

Ya but it’s ramping up a bit . Northern ct to CN look in a good spot now clouds be a repeat of yesterday except 50 miles north 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just for fun ... but if your a spring enthusiast lookin' for a dopa hit, check out the CFS for March 12th

Lets start mowing.

[SouthCoastMA]

Before the Blizzard, I had a 5 x 5' patch of lawn appear in the front yard. Vibrant green still

[Typhoon Tip]

the 12z "ICONt model anything worth a piss beyond D4" guidance ( so tfwiw - ) has a nasty ice wall signaled for the 6th.  The GFS spent a couple of runs doing this recently too.  Think it abandoned the idea at 6z however.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just for fun ... but if your a spring enthusiast lookin' for a dopa hit, check out the CFS for March 12th

The cynic would look at that confluence up near Labrador and imagine that verifying a bit south....

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The cynic would look at that confluence up near Labrador and imagine that verifying a bit south....

Or just question the compos mentis in having this CFS model even in existence too .

heh. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS skynet is kind of interested in the 3/3-3/4 threat. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

GFS seems to have beefed up a tad for Sunday.  

[ma blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the 12z "ICONt model anything worth a piss beyond D4" guidance ( so tfwiw - ) has a nasty ice wall signaled for the 6th.  The GFS spent a couple of runs doing this recently too.  Think it abandoned the idea at 6z however.

the 0z GFS had a pretty sweet 2+ day ice look for the same time period .. not thats it worth much but was just an interesting solution 

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

GFS seems to have beefed up a tad for Sunday.  

Yeah that's a decent look. 

[CoastalWx]

Sucks losing early next week. Decent airmass in place too.