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"Don’t do it" 2026 Blizzard obs, updates and pictures.


Ginx snewx
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4 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

I'm wondering if the valley here is more like 8". Good storm but would be a bit of a letdown. Was thinking a solid foot earlier today.    Can't find a model that has 1" of qpf here.  

We may be getting some dry air draining down the valley tonight too,  I’m at 30/24 with -SN and breezy. 

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The drop in QPF in the meso models may end up being right but if you match up the composite radar on the HRRR and what's actually happening, actual radar looks much better.  Not sure if that's just how the simulated composite radar always looks compared to the real conditions or not.

The heaviest radar returns seem to hit an unusual "brick wall "coming off the ocean into the south coast and get knocked down.  Seems unrealistic...

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It might be starting to expose what was going on with these late corrections that seemed odd early in the day. 

That’s when the storm is bombing

It’s strange, but it’s like when it bombs hyper contracts in the models 

You think like a bunch of convection forms around the center and steals moisture from areas further away?

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26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What's everyone's thoughts on the radar going to shit around midnight then reinvigorating a few hours later 

not a Met, but based on radar to our SE, it just seems to be building, not falling apart and it is almost 10 pm, so it is going to have to start soon. Almost at 3 inches, but have the heaviest rates of the night so far, probably 1+ inches per hr

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

not a Met, but based on radar to our SE, it just seems to be building, not falling apart and it is almost 10 pm, so it is going to have to start soon. Almost at 3 inches, but have the heaviest rates of the night so far, probably 1+ inches per hr

HRRR has this all breaking apart between 11pm and midnight we shall see soon.. Might have 6-8" by then though 

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR has this all breaking apart between 11pm and midnight we shall see soon.. Might have 6-8" by then though 

I mean, just looking at the water vapor loop/radar, seems like cloud tops are popping and cooling east of NJ. Doesn't strike me as worrisome.

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