Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

20.5 in woodside?? holy fook. That's only 5 miles from here, and I recorded "only" 14.5". So they must've been measuring a drift, but its a trained spotter so it seems more believable.

Yeah some of these reports are sus. I cant imagine Greensboro got 14". I went with 10. Goldsboro Mesonet had 10.2 max snow depth.

[Chris78]

40 minutes ago, hstorm said:

I assume it was from the mountain report on Wintergreen's website.  In my experience, every resort fudges those numbers.  Great job for a slantsticker.

Yes they do lol. I seen it myself many times from Skiing local resorts.

[katabatic]

Intense snow showers throughout the day - tough to measure but I'm estimating 11" combined with what fell yesterday. Hi only made it to 26, currently 19. Beautiful deep winter day.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It’s still pounding Rhode Island and mass, 36+ reports coming in.  Madness. 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’s still pounding Rhode Island and mass, 36+ reports coming in.  Madness. 

TF Green is due to report at the top of the hour; they were at 32.8" six hours ago. I could see 40"

[hstorm]

1 hour ago, Nomz said:

TF Green is due to report at the top of the hour; they were at 32.8" six hours ago. I could see 40"

42” on the ground at TF Green per 6pm METAR (snow depth pre-storm was 5”):

KPVD 232051Z COR 35014G28KT 1/2SM R05/4500V5500FT -SN FZFG VV010 M03/M03 A2937 RMK AO2 PK WND 36035/2014 SLP946 SNINCR 2/42 P0001 60002 T10281033 53031 $

[stormy]

50 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

 

Yeah, I am calling BS on the Wintergreen self report.  Up in the northern part of our county (Augusta) had 6” and 5.5” observations by trained spotters up around 4300 ft.  I was hiking up near there yesterday and saw it.

The other report near Wintergreen around 5” makes a whole lot more sense.  Maybe more at the peak at the resort, but 10” more?  Not buying that for a minute.

I am simply reporting what the NWS office out of Blacksburg is reporting. If you want to argue, then argue with the NWS at Blacksburg.

Some joker wandering around in the mts. near Wintergreen on Sunday means nothing. 

This is not name calling!   This is simply clarifying the record for some reckless challenging of the official NWS record.

[Nomz]

27 minutes ago, Nomz said:

TF Green is due to report at the top of the hour; they were at 32.8" six hours ago. I could see 40"

37.9 and -sn. Don't think they'll make it to 40" after all

[mappy]

Big difference in amounts just 10 miles south. Some yards already had areas of grass showing on the way to dance. 

[WesternFringe]

31 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am simply reporting what the NWS office out of Blacksburg is reporting. If you want to argue, then argue with the NWS at Blacksburg.

Some joker wandering around in the mts. near Wintergreen on Sunday means nothing. 

This is not name calling!   This is simply clarifying the record for some reckless challenging of the official NWS record.

I am not arguing with you reporting the number.  However, that isn’t some joker wandering around.  It was a trained NWS spotter.  Now, the guy who works at the ski resorts?  Not so much.

I am disputing the number because it is ridiculous.  I didn’t know it came from the resort itself, or I would have known it was inflated.  Thanks, @hstorm for comparing time stamps.

I grew up in upstate New York and New England. It’s a well known fact that ski resorts inflate snowfall reports, since they have an economic interest in doing so.

Again, not arguing with you, just disputing that number, which will definitely not be a part of the NWS record as a report from an NWS trained spotter.

[WesternFringe]

39 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am simply reporting what the NWS office out of Blacksburg is reporting. If you want to argue, then argue with the NWS at Blacksburg.

Some joker wandering around in the mts. near Wintergreen on Sunday means nothing. 

This is not name calling!   This is simply clarifying the record for some reckless challenging of the official NWS record.

And you did call him ‘smartboy,’ which is what @hstormwas referring to

[WesternFringe]

51 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am simply reporting what the NWS office out of Blacksburg is reporting. If you want to argue, then argue with the NWS at Blacksburg.

Some joker wandering around in the mts. near Wintergreen on Sunday means nothing. 

This is not name calling!   This is simply clarifying the record for some reckless challenging of the official NWS record.

Lol

@hstorm

[Ka60]

3 hours ago, das said:

What was your total?

My total for the day ranged from 5.2 to 6.3  The average was 5.6"

[snowfan]

Highest amount in the upslope so far is 22.5" near holly river state park. Red Creek near canaan at 16" earlier this evening. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

ok, it looks like there was a localized band of heavy snow for an hour there while I was asleep. Slept for about 5 hours. Just missed me by 5 miles, lol. 

That must have been a hell of a band to produce that much difference in an hour lol

[SnowtoRain]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That must have been a hell of a band to produce that much difference in an hour lol

I think Berlin probably had the best rates, the mesonet snow depth chart is insane, close to 5 maybe 6" per hr, I can't imagine anywhere exceeded that

[ThePhotoGuy]

4 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Rain gauge didn’t even have 3/4 of an inch in it, so we can talk about temps and ratios and stickage, if even if all those things were good, the moisture just wasn’t there. Basically half what the GFS advertised.

Agree.

Had a total of 0.85 (0.62 as rain and 0.23 melted snow) in Pasadena, which was below most modeled guidance. Seems like it has been at least a year that we have been on average busting much low during most storms/rainfall events that modeled guidance suggests. 

[das]

55 minutes ago, Ka60 said:

My total for the day ranged from 5.2 to 6.3  The average was 5.6"

Thanks. There was still 4” in places that were bare ground at the start when I got home this evening so that sounds about right. Upper MoCo could not have looked more different than DC at 6pm. Different world. 

[WEATHER53]

I lost 2” today so 2” remaining and 3” in some areas.  It took me two Weeks  to lose two inches from Snowcrete 

Winds stil cranking 

[stormy]

11 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

I am not arguing with you reporting the number.  However, that isn’t some joker wandering around.  It was a trained NWS spotter.  Now, the guy who works at the ski resorts?  Not so much.

I am disputing the number because it is ridiculous.  I didn’t know it came from the resort itself, or I would have known it was inflated.  Thanks, @hstorm for comparing time stamps.

I grew up in upstate New York and New England. It’s a well known fact that ski resorts inflate snowfall reports, since they have an economic interest in doing so.

Again, not arguing with you, just disputing that number, which will definitely not be a part of the NWS record as a report from an NWS trained spotter.

Sunday plastered the Shenandoah Valley with a very unusual snow-event. Wide variations in accumulated snowfall occurred within short distances. Similar conditions occurred in W.Va and Md./ Del. 

The NAM Nest 700 mb. chart illustrated a sharp trough with extreme lift turbulence over Augusta County Sunday afternoon.    I received a strong inch in a heavy band while a friend a few miles away had bare ground. Luray reported a half inch while a friend a few miles away up on Tanners Ridge at 2700 ft. near Big Meadows reported at least 6 inches with high winds. When I was preparing my Newsletter early Monday I looked at local snow totals. Stuarts Draft has 3 reporting stations on the west side within a couple miles apart. One station reported 0, another reported 1 inch while #3 reported 4.5 inches!  I reported 2 inches for Stuarts Draft.  In question, Wintergreen reported 3 inches at 7:30 am Sunday,  6 inches at 3 pm Sunday and 15 inches at 7:30 am Monday.  Is this 100% accurate??  I don't know because I didn't take the measurements.  If we deny snowfall  reported by the NWS because we disagree , we are hopeless. I am currently working on the last 125 years of snowfall for the Valley. I am relying on Staunton Records, Dale Enterprise Records and 60 years of personal records with occasional cross-references.   Many of the people who made those records have been dead for more than 50 years. How did they measure snow?  Did they use snowboards? If so, how often did they clean the snowboards?

West Virginia also had as you say, 'ridiculous" reports for Sunday.  Holly River State Park reported 22.5 inches with a picture of measurement on social media.  10 - 15 miles away, Webster Springs only reported 6 inches.

Md/Del. also had "ridiculous" reports with 4 - 20 inches within 10-15 miles of each other at midday Monday.

I'm always interested in snowfall reports but I am keenly aware that we don't live in a perfect world regarding measuring/reporting snowfall or any other factors in our lives. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I'm moving soon so I don't care, but LWX using 6.0" from State Highway in Prince Frederick is bonkers as usual.

[WesternFringe]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

Sunday plastered the Shenandoah Valley with a very unusual snow-event. Wide variations in accumulated snowfall occurred within short distances. Similar conditions occurred in W.Va and Md./ Del. 

The NAM Nest 700 mb. chart illustrated a sharp trough with extreme lift turbulence over Augusta County Sunday afternoon.    I received a strong inch in a heavy band while a friend a few miles away had bare ground. Luray reported a half inch while a friend a few miles away up on Tanners Ridge at 2700 ft. near Big Meadows reported at least 6 inches with high winds. When I was preparing my Newsletter early Monday I looked at local snow totals. Stuarts Draft has 3 reporting stations on the west side within a couple miles apart. One station reported 0, another reported 1 inch while #3 reported 4.5 inches!  I reported 2 inches for Stuarts Draft.  In question, Wintergreen reported 3 inches at 7:30 am Sunday,  6 inches at 3 pm Sunday and 15 inches at 7:30 am Monday.  Is this 100% accurate??  I don't know because I didn't take the measurements.  If we deny snowfall  reported by the NWS because we disagree , we are hopeless. I am currently working on the last 125 years of snowfall for the Valley. I am relying on Staunton Records, Dale Enterprise Records and 60 years of personal records with occasional cross-references.   Many of the people who made those records have been dead for more than 50 years. How did they measure snow?  Did they use snowboards? If so, how often did they clean the snowboards?

West Virginia also had as you say, 'ridiculous" reports for Sunday.  Holly River State Park reported 22.5 inches with a picture of measurement on social media.  10 - 15 miles away, Webster Springs only reported 6 inches.

Md/Del. also had "ridiculous" reports with 4 - 20 inches within 10-15 miles of each other at midday Monday.

I'm always interested in snowfall reports but I am keenly aware that we don't live in a perfect world regarding measuring/reporting snowfall or any other factors in our lives. 

Data from satellites and NOAA doesn't support it at all.  Most of the NWS snowfall reports come from NWS Employees, trained spotters, Park/ Forest Srvc, etc.  Notice the one outlier on the map?  It isn't an official NWS number.  It is the number reported by the resort that has an incentive to over inflate its numbers.

We are not hopeless because we use our brains and logic.  Do you really think it is realistic that the only measurement of 15" of snow in Virginia came from a 3000' mountain in Nelson County?  Not the 4500' mountains of northern and western Augusta County? Not the northern Shenandoah Valley?  Do you think it is plausible that Wintergreen was the only measurement (outside of WV) of 15" of snow that is southwest of greater Philadelphia?

Finally, I will just say this.  My coworker Monica and her husband Chris live up there in a condominium and they told me they got 6", maybe 7" at the most.

https://data.usatoday.com/projects/snowfall-accumulation-tracker/index.html

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow

@hstorm

 

[psuhoffman]

@WesternFringe  There is 0 chance that 15" report is accurate, for all the reasons you eloquently laid out in a logical rational scientific way.  There is also a 0% change that stormy will accept any of those rational logical arguments.  

[WolfStock1]

SW of Leesburg VA we got right at 5", so it appears more than most in the area.

Was a really sticky and beautiful snow Sunday night.

(we got a bit more after the pic was taken)

[WEATHER53]

Still 2-3” in full shade, full sun bare to 0 5”, partial sun 1-1.5” 

[stormy]

5 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

Data from satellites and NOAA doesn't support it at all.  Most of the NWS snowfall reports come from NWS Employees, trained spotters, Park/ Forest Srvc, etc.  Notice the one outlier on the map?  It isn't an official NWS number.  It is the number reported by the resort that has an incentive to over inflate its numbers.

We are not hopeless because we use our brains and logic.  Do you really think it is realistic that the only measurement of 15" of snow in Virginia came from a 3000' mountain in Nelson County?  Not the 4500' mountains of northern and western Augusta County? Not the northern Shenandoah Valley?  Do you think it is plausible that Wintergreen was the only measurement (outside of WV) of 15" of snow that is southwest of greater Philadelphia?

Finally, I will just say this.  My coworker Monica and her husband Chris live up there in a condominium and they told me they got 6", maybe 7" at the most.

https://data.usatoday.com/projects/snowfall-accumulation-tracker/index.html

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow

@hstorm

 

AS I said earlier today, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the report because I did not make the measurement . You and I both want accurate measurement and reporting. I am with you 100% on that.

We seem to have a mentally challenged  intruder. Psu ,who is  obsessed with global warming and a huge decrease of D.C. snowfall.    Psu , I am very sorry to disappoint you, but I totally agree that earlier reported snowfall totals cannot be trusted. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

SW of Leesburg VA we got right at 5", so it appears more than most in the area.

Was a really sticky and beautiful snow Sunday night.

(we got a bit more after the pic was taken)

Definitely more than I got. Think my location was a bit unlucky with the last one. It all melted by 3 pm the next day. 

[SnowenOutThere]

57 minutes ago, stormy said:

We seem to have a mentally challenged  intruder. Psu

Something something those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones

[SnowenOutThere]

Next tell him your salary!

[GreyHat]

Magnolia 

Drive into work after the drive ban was lifted. Car in dig, trees being cut up and crew working on electric.