Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[snowcane33]

15 minutes ago, THEREALTOR1 said:

Lights keep dimming in and out in Felton.  Holding on so far but my buddy in Magnolia is having the same issues.  I'm guessing heavy tree limbs touching lines as the winds blow.  Lord willing everybody's lights/heat stay on.

I live right across from Delmarva power and light and I see nobody over there as of now. 

[Grothar of Herndon]

Estimating 2” currently very light snow and increasing winds. It is beautiful outside.

[jayyy]

Radar is wild with rotation so clear and right now the snow is moving north  to south from York PA down onto DC 

Looks like the storm is finally being captured. Rotation should be in full effect for sure. C NJ to Boston east of 95 is about to have an insane next 12 hours.

[TSSN+]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Things to say about this storm. 

1. It snowed 

End of list 

Add to list 

2. GFS still sucks 

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

So with marginal temps heading in, i think I’ve learned that snow depth maps should be a focus? They seemed to verify.


.

Probably. The problem is they are either not available or paywalled for most models.

[Nomz]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Add to list 

2. GFS still sucks 

GFS still lead the way for this one though... just missed the bullseye by like 150 miles 4 days out or whatever

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

GFS still lead the way for this one though... just missed the bullseye by like 150 miles 4 days out or whatever

Meh it was way off. Had back to western pa getting 6”+ a few days ago and dc in 30” now maybe no one gets 30” immediate coast might get 15-20” if lucky. Euro was meh but never really teased us with big totals and cmc wasn’t showing it being too big either inside 4 days. Gfs was just big tease that bled away run after run 

[Silver Meteor]

Laurel Delaware: Lady friend of mine in Laurel is a total snow freak. Not a weather geek but a snow freak. Anyway, she just told me the wind made snowballs in her backyard. I said that sounds pretty weird ... so she sent me this pic:

 

[LeesburgWx]

I gave up after my 2 inches fell and came back to read the last few pages to see most everyone is underwhelmed. This past week was a tough one. Should have followed Randy to Houston. I'm tired y'all

[Wetbulbs88]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Quick Rant Here.

I think some people here are more in love with the concept of snow or a winter storm than the physical thing itself! This rant is not aimed at the genuinely unlucky few who have next to no snow OTG at all; for you guys I feel for you and it sucks, I wish it went differently. However, the rest of you all need to get a grip as it did snow! From five days out this looked like a pie in the sky longshot to get nearly anything; for Pete's sake our initial posts were making fun of banking on a Miller B daytime storm with a trash airmass. Now, in the meantime we've seen our odds increase but frankly nothing ever looked absolutely amazing. For all of us fortunate enough to get snow please for the love of god instead of posting here about how much less you got than expected go out and enjoy it!! Most of my pictures and Jebwalk occurred while it was 33 degrees and less than a half inch of the ground (or deer). Something that constantly amazes me is that it only takes a 1/2 inch of snow to transform the landscape into something completely different. While I wish we all got more than what we did please just go and enjoy it. It's not worth the angst of tracking otherwise. 

I agree with the sentiment but factually speaking there were many runs that looked beyond amazing. 

[Solution Man]

Good luck where it’s snowing and congratulations. Will watch this one from the sidelines again.

[Jebman]

14 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Confirmed. These bands pivoting in off the Atlantic into S NYC AND the NJ hook are prime. I chased up to the Jersey coast just south of Staten Island. Double digits are imminient

That storm is just pumping potent snow bands right into the shoreline! Just imagine if you can, that this puppy were to stall out for about four fun filled days!

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I gave up after my 2 inches fell and came back to read the last few pages to see most everyone is underwhelmed. This past week was a tough one. Should have followed Randy to Houston. I'm tired y'all

This one was a drainer

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I agree with the sentiment but factually speaking there were many runs that looked beyond amazing. 

True, but from an upper level perspective we were always relying on everything going right on those runs. We had the initial phase out west work perfectly, then we had the secondary vort help negatively tilt the trough super early. Then we had a strong enough primary low and SW vort that didn't run out east too quickly... there were just so, so many steps required to get those amazing snow maps. Not that someday the stars won't align but every individual storm you can bet against the snow maps until they are supported by a reasonable synoptic progression. IMO this is why the Jan 25th storm hurt so much because for once we had the H5 setup that was a reasonable, even expected, way to get a 2ft plus storm... then the stars aligned to turn it into a sleetfest. On the other hand this storm didn't really deserve the expectations placed upon it by the snowfall maps. 

[Nomz]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Meh it was way off. Had back to western pa getting 6”+ a few days ago and dc in 30” now maybe no one gets 30” immediate coast might get 15-20” if lucky. Euro was meh but never really teased us with big totals and cmc wasn’t showing it being too big either inside 4 days. Gfs was just big tease that bled away run after run 

It had literally one run with DC getting 30, at a range where you should just be looking at trends. Just because it missed IMBY doesn't mean overall it got it down better than most. This was the euro Thursday night; pretty accurate for DC-BWI, but completely whiffed everywhere NE of BWI.

[wxdude64]

9 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Laurel Delaware: Lady friend of mine in Laurel is a total snow freak. Not a weather geek but a snow freak. Anyway, she just told me the wind made snowballs in her backyard. I said that sounds pretty weird ... so she sent me this pic:

 

Looks like the start of snow rollers. If the wind stays up in one direction they'll start to look like white Little Debbie Swiss Cake rolls lol. I've seen it once in NE. 

[mattie g]

10 hours ago, mattie g said:

Personally? I’ve been down this road too many times. Warm temps hold on a smidge longer and rates don’t make up for it. We flip to white rain and end up with an inch of slush on the grass after the sun goes down.

I guess the fact that I have to travel at the ass crack tomorrow morning doesn’t help.

[WEATHER53]

Switching swirling  winds here and moderate--heavy snow.  

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, Nomz said:

It had literally one run with DC getting 30, at a range where you should just be looking at trends. Just because it missed IMBY doesn't mean overall it got it down better than most. This was the euro Thursday night; pretty accurate for DC-BWI, but completely whiffed everywhere NE of BWI.

Gfs had multiple runs of us getting hammered probably like 2 days worth. It was trash. Euro also wasn’t great. Ggem didn’t do too bad. But overall American models shat the bed again. 

[AlexD1990]

I'm really sorry you guys in the main part of the subforum are missing out. If it makes you feel better, this isn't as fun when you're worried your power will go out. 42,000 outages in Sussex County DE and rising.

[bncho]

inv trof finally setting up SW of DC

[JakkelWx]

measured 8.2" and coming down hard. getting harder to measure. 

[gopper]

3 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Meh it was way off. Had back to western pa getting 6”+ a few days ago and dc in 30” now maybe no one gets 30” immediate coast might get 15-20” if lucky. Euro was meh but never really teased us with big totals and cmc wasn’t showing it being too big either inside 4 days. Gfs was just big tease that bled away run after run 

GFS was extremely persistent on a deep low close the coast for many runs.  Other models were like "yea, right"  In the end the appears to have been a meeting in the middle that mostly sucked for DCA and BWI peeps.  I think GFS just had too much emphasis in the lowing bombing in a perfect position for DCA and BWI areas, but in the end the bomb must have been just a bit too north and east for our latitude to fully maximize.  I am sure that many other factors played into it as well, but we really needed the strong fetch from the coastal to get the big stuff and we simply did not get that.  Maybe some backside love tonight but I doubt much, 

[Kleimax]

2.5in on top of my car in Garrison 

[NorthArlington101]

Slightly sketchy drive back into DC until you get to the DC line… then it’s like nothing happened.

Probably 3”+ at home with that last push and literally just over a T on my deck in downtown. Friends don’t let friends move into DC

[Eskimo Joe]

Finally below 32 degrees in Reisterstown. 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Slightly sketchy drive back into DC until you get to the DC line… then it’s like nothing happened.

Probably 3”+ at home with that last push and literally just over a T on my deck in downtown. Friends don’t let friends move into DC

UHI, altitude, valley, surfaces, river; basically everything possible to minimize snow accumulation. DCA is particularly bad.

[87storms]

Multiple caution flags leading in…it’s late February, not late January; it was mild yesterday; there was no strong high to the north; it was a Miller B; we were relying on the NT that is probably not well understood by most ppl here; and the euro (aka the best model in the world) was meh on this system all week.

We need things to be simpler. This one simply required too many things to go right.

 

[THEREALTOR1]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

measured 8.2" and coming down hard. getting harder to measure. 

It compacted so much down here this evening I didn't even try to measure. Its super heavy wet snow

[Miss Pixee]

Taken 10 minutes ago...frosty and chilly SE! Because we like it that way. 

now 32 degrees.