Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Wxtrix]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just outside the heaviest reflectivity but regardless everything is caved and heavy dendrites. Got some awesome pictures I can’t wait to post. Anyone know if the IVt will shift east?

in that it hasn't formed yet, who knows?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

0.4” on the board 

Nice

[Mrs.J]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The DOT cameras on I-70 right at South Mountain are incredible. That band is really going to town.

Ok I have a serious question for you. What is it about the area of Frederick Co. I live in that is so vastly different most times to other areas. Even areas all around me. I am still a light rain/snow mix here and absolutely no accumulation at all. Is it being closer to the Potomac? I truly want to understand. But I do not know enough about climate or my area to understand the 180 dynamics. 

[Terpeast]

So the coastal part of the storm is starting to separate from the bands over the western part of the forum. My guess this is where the norlun may set up initially and then migrate east towards DC, and then wherever it migrates to, it will jus sit for a few hours with 1-2”/hr rates. Whether it gets stuck over fdk-moco-loudoun, or moves all the way to over DC like the HRRR shows remains to be seen. 

FWIW, winds are still blowing from the NNE at my place, so it may start forming to the west of me

[Bubbler86]

2.5" in pen Mar, MD.  Roads are not covered but driveways are...snow on sides of roads.  30 degrees.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

The saddest wintry mix you’ve ever seen in Navy Yard. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Accumulating on everything but the road right now in Gaithersburg. I stopped paying attention after two days ago when it became clear we didn't have a shot at the big jackpot of the other cities northeast, and am just enjoying the vibe of the snow. Might take a peek and see if what's on top of me is expected to stay for a while. Love getting a re-whitener for winter.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Wxtrix said:

how is it over when the snow was supposed to start in earnest after midnight?

Not sure.  If it is then it was a very brief smoke show.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

2.2” in Frederick might be aggressive at this point lol. This is a top 5 storm bust for me so far and relying on radar returns from the northeast is not the path to victory. Congrats to those who scored. I’ve officially accepted defeat. It is at least sort of snowing here now, but absolutely no accumulation so far and radar looks awful up this way. Ya win some ya lose some.

Except for the 5 people who end up under the norlun this will be prob be a bust as the best dynamics and rates (except for a potential norlun) are scooting east in the next few hours,  but we knew going in to a miller b with bad temps nothing is guaranteed. At least it’s snowing now and I can do a jebwalk!

[JakkelWx]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Starting to look a little bit like a blizzard is about to start ripping here in central del. 

yup. eyeballing around 3.5" or so. haven't measured since earlier. getting windy

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

So the coastal part of the storm is starting to separate from the bands over the western part of the forum. My guess this is where the norlun may set up initially and then migrate east towards DC, and then wherever it migrates to, it will jus sit for a few hours with 1-2”/hr rates. Whether it gets stuck over fdk-moco-loudoun, or moves all the way to over DC like the HRRR shows remains to be seen. 

FWIW, winds are still blowing from the NNE at my place, so it may start forming to the west of me

just snuck in the eastern edge. LFG!

[Flying Bouncy House]

100% bust in the panhandle of WV.  Couldn’t even call it a dusting.  Terrible call for the WSW by Sterling. 

[JakkelWx]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So the coastal part of the storm is starting to separate from the bands over the western part of the forum. My guess this is where the norlun may set up initially and then migrate east towards DC, and then wherever it migrates to, it will jus sit for a few hours with 1-2”/hr rates. Whether it gets stuck over fdk-moco-loudoun, or moves all the way to over DC like the HRRR shows remains to be seen. 

FWIW, winds are still blowing from the NNE at my place, so it may start forming to the west of me

 

Setting up for a dover mauling?

[MillvilleWx]

17 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Hello. Would appreciate it if you would comment on this website. It shows the swirling wind vortex near the coast yet at the same time shows a "Low" noticeably farther offshore. How are these dynamic graphics created? Accuracy?

https://www.ventusky.com/wind-speed-map/10m-above-ground#p=37.74;-76.31;6&w=0xIAb9A9A

Hey there! Not sure how those graphics are created, but those outputs are actually all models (This case it’s the HRRR) so it’s not the current representation surface analysis. It’s just a fancy way of model projection on the website. Pretty cool 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Ok I have a serious question for you. What is it about the area of Frederick Co. I live in that is so vastly different most times to other areas. Even areas all around me. I am still a light rain/snow mix here and absolutely no accumulation at all. Is it being closer to the Potomac? I truly want to understand. But I do not know enough about climate or my area to understand the 180 dynamics. 

The Frederick/Monocacy Valley seems to not do so well on marginal events without some kind of decent antecedent airmass. The only thing I can think of is that some warm air gets trapped at the surface to maybe the first 500 feet above ground. 

[87storms]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Except for the 5 people who end up under the norlun this will be prob be a bust as the best dynamics and rates (except for a potential norlun) are scooting east in the next few hours,  but we knew going in to a miller b with bad temps nothing is guaranteed. At least it’s snowing now and I can do a jebwalk!

Yep, agreed on everything you said including the jebber.

[Wxtrix]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure.  If it is then it was a very brief smoke show.  

so all the warnings and advisories have been canceled?

[SnowenOutThere]

Beautiful two hour jebwalk done and now heavy snow with winds blowing it. So worth driving up for this

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Wxtrix said:

so all the warnings and advisories have been canceled?

I think you missed the expected timing on the “storm”. It has been a bust for the western crew mostly, and the IVT is the item that is hopeful to save many from a complete bust. It’s TBD who it will save. 

[snowmagnet]

CWG is talking about their boom scenario. 

 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Setting up for a dover mauling?

It's beginning to be a smoke show here in Harrisburg del. Headed out for a jebwalk right now. The guy at the front desk already thinks I'm a weirdo. 

Dude- "Why does that guy keep going outside and wondering around the parking lot? Is he looking at the street lights? Wtf?

[Grothar of Herndon]

Quickly becoming a winter wonderland in Western Fairfax

[Wetbulbs88]

12 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

how is it over when the snow was supposed to start in earnest after midnight?

I don't see any wraparound or backbuilding making it westward. But we'll see. 

[JakkelWx]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It's beginning to be a smoke show here in Harrisburg del. Headed out for a jebwalk right now. The guy at the front desk already thinks I'm a weirdo. 

Dude- "Why does that guy keep going outside and wondering around the parking lot? Is he looking at the street lights? Wtf?

snow just started getting heavy again here. starting to blow sideways in earnest. looks like jan 2016 friday night as it was cranking

[Wetbulbs88]

5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

CWG is talking about their boom scenario. 

 

Please share more...

[snowmagnet]

2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

Quickly becoming a winter wonderland in Western Fairfax

Have you measured yet? I'm eyeing about 1.5 on my deck table. 

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

It's beginning to be a smoke show here in Harrisburg del. Headed out for a jebwalk right now. The guy at the front desk already thinks I'm a weirdo. 

Dude- "Why does that guy keep going outside and wondering around the parking lot? Is he looking at the street lights? Wtf?

They'd REALLY think I'm a super weirdo! I'd be singing ELO tracks out loud.

Yeah, best I stay in South TX ftw.

[Miss Pixee]

Nice snip from Bob Ryan

[Eskimo Joe]

Fairfax County Government closed Monday, 2/23.

[TheColtrane]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Please share more...

An hour ago they were talking about why their boom scenario has such a large range. Ain't nobody crazy enough at this point to be suggesting we're booming.