Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

It actually got better!  Enjoy your whiskey!

Cool.  Cheers! 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think there’s a limit to how far east it’ll go as the sfc low track is pretty much locked in +/- 30 miles, and most models have had the norlun from HGR - W loudoun - Fauquier though it shifted east by maybe 10-20 miles on 00z. I don’t think it’ll shift further east by more than 10-20 miles, and certainly not to bmore unless the storm actually changes track

Ahh I see. Welp, guess I'll have to accept my fate of being in the middle--but 6-8" still isn't bad. I'm guessing the NAM solution wasn't realistic? (Was that really a triple phase?)

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think there’s a limit to how far east it’ll go as the sfc low track is pretty much locked in +/- 30 miles, and most models have had the norlun from HGR - W loudoun - Fauquier though it shifted east by maybe 10-20 miles on 00z. I don’t think it’ll shift further east by more than 10-20 miles, and certainly not to bmore unless the storm actually changes track

are you saying we're in a good spot for the norlun?

[bncho]

3z HRRR much colder than 0z HRRR, probably just reverting back to the real solution

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

3z HRRR much colder than 0z HRRR, probably just reverting back to the real solution

I dont know. Surface low is pretty east from it's last run. But that model is a clownshow anyways 

[DaleCityDave]

My only question now is what time should I start my jebwalk tomorrow?

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

are you saying we're in a good spot for the norlun?

Your guess is as good as mine. It’ll be a narrow band only 10-20 miles wide. Either we’re in a good spot for it or not. We’ll probably know the answer to this early tomorrow evening when it begins to form. 

[stormtracker]

All that shit gonna be melted when i get home at 10pm Monday.  Save some for me. 

[Warm Nose]

Anyone who says with any surety they know where the Norlun is gonna set up is lying.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My temp in Reisterstown is falling nicely. Down to 34 degrees.

Yes 37 here and dew barely rising with  temp drop

[jayyy]

Over/under on what time the first pressure change map depicting the storm “forming further S than expected” gets posted tomorrow….

Any takers?

#tuckbabytuck

[jayyy]

Anyone who says with any surety they know where the Norlun is gonna set up is lying.

Good thing no one’s saying that

[Wxtrix]

we're fewer than 24 hours out and sweating the GFS?

 

[IUsedToHateCold]

I'm riding the NAM at this point. Model is good at this range.

33.6/29.2

I don't know what to say other than I've felt this storm for over a week now and everything that's happened this week has led me to believe this is going to be a big thing. 

Rest up because tomorrow we celebrate. 

[EHoffman]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Over/under on what time the first sea pressure change map depicting the storm “forming further S than expected” gets posted tomorrow….

Any takers?

#tuckbabytuck

Hallucinating on pressure change maps is peak PHL-BOS HECS behavior on this board

[MLynnWx]

36/30

[jayyy]

Hallucinating on pressure change maps is peak PHL-BOS HECS behavior on this board

Correct

[Bob Chill]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Temp down near freezing. Can’t hurt. I feel weirdly zen about this storm, maybe I’m channeling @Bob Chillin my middle age. Let’s see what happens!

I hope the old school MoCo/HoCo band sets up and dumps white asteroids for hours hahaha.

Unfortunately I've had to root against this one down here and was never in the game anyway so it was easy. The 3 week glacier really set me back with property development work and I'm behind schedule. Picked up 2 nice excavator jobs for the second half of March so I'm seven days a week on our land until then.  

Had a real good winter down here this year. I gotta root for warm and dry from here on out so I'll only jump back into wx disco if I'm in legit crosshairs for a late season event. Always pulling for my northern friends. Enjoy the storm!

[Jebman]

9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Over/under on what time the first pressure change map depicting the storm “forming further S than expected” gets posted tomorrow….

Any takers?

#tuckbabytuck

Gonna be about 6am Eastern Standard Time. It's gonna form more souther!

[Jebman]

18 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

My only question now is what time should I start my jebwalk tomorrow?

When the rain is changing to snow. Get headphones and blast every track that reminds you of past snowstorms. Watch the dendrites blow right past the streetlights!

[Wetbulbs88]

50 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Lol, now DC gets more than Baltimore. @Maestrobjwais going to jump.

On TT it's showing 4" for DC and Baltimore.

QPF pushes 1"+ so that makes no sense. What gives? 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

On TT it's showing 4" for DC and Baltimore.

QPF pushes 1"+ so that makes no sense. What gives? 

It has to be something with their temperature algorithm. 

[LordBaltimore]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

When the rain is changing to snow. Get headphones and blast every track that reminds you of past snowstorms. Watch the dendrites blow right past the streetlights!

Trammel Starks Pier 32 is mandatory for sn++

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

Trammel Starks Pier 32 is mandatory for sn++

I don't know that one...."fair weather" and "good ole days" are my go-tos.

[Jebman]

If I were there right now I'd be makin a road trip to DE or New Jersey. Man that place is gonna get demolished! Those high winds blasting snow is gonna make that place look like it is getting Mammothed.

[Swiscaster]

38 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

My only question now is what time should I start my jebwalk tomorrow?

8:35pm

[jayyy]

If I were there right now I'd be makin a road trip to DE or New Jersey. Man that place is gonna get demolished! Those high winds blasting snow is gonna make that place look like it is getting Mammothed.

Read my mind. So excited I can’t sleep at all. About to take some melatonin to try to get some rest before the marathon begins

[Miss Pixee]

down to 38/30DP. dropped 2 degrees in the last half hour...

[SnowenOutThere]

Super excited to see this storm play out. Going to one for the history books so get ready to save some satellite gifs. 

[jayyy]

Super excited to see this storm play out. Going to one for the history books so get ready to save some satellite gifs. 

I’m excited for the real OBS to begin. Watching the phasing and bomb out play out in real time is gonna be awesome.