Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Interstate]

Someone else posted earlier... most likely it will warm up when the clouds roll in

[Warm Nose]

MDZ003-004-503-VAZ031-505-506-WVZ051>053-221115-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Northwest Montgomery-Clarke-Western
Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
1003 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM 
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 
  6 inches. For elevations above 1000 feet, snow accumulations of 6 
  to 12 inches are expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central and north central Maryland, northern 
  and northwest Virginia, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

[AdamHLG]

This really was the greatest meme of this storm the moment the King went down.


.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Gfs shifted that norlun east every run over the last 6 runs, while keeping the ccb and slp largely the same. Interesting

Yesterday it was out in Western MD but it's more in line with the rest of the guidance now.

 

[ravensrule]

Lol, now DC gets more than Baltimore. @Maestrobjwais going to jump.

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, AdamHLG said:

This really was the greatest meme of this storm the moment the King went down.


.

Was my first time using AI actually.  

[ravensrule]

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Gfs shifted that norlun east every run over the last 6 runs, while keeping the ccb and slp largely the same. Interesting

Interesting is not the word I would use.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Lol, now DC gets more than Baltimore. @Maestrobjwais going to jump.

All joking aside, I'm just glad to see an expanded area of 6"+ through the region.  At least, this looks larger than the 18Z cycle I think (haven't gone back to look at the other thread for the 18Z PBP stuff).  The global models are not going to pick up on the fine-scale subtleties like banding and such, but this at least looks like a nice broad-brush.

[ravensrule]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

All joking aside, I'm just glad to see an expanded area of 6"+ through the region.  At least, this looks larger than the 18Z cycle I think (haven't gone back to look at the other thread for the 18Z PBP stuff).  The global models are not going to pick up on the fine-scale subtleties like banding and such, but this at least looks like a nice broad-brush.

Agreed 1,000%. Let’s see what the meso models show now. 

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

I think all of us in Baltimore would not be surprised to see this kind of fuckery unfold.

[jayyy]

Down to 34 at home in union bridge

39 here in asbury park

5 degrees colder down at home than here currently

[ravensrule]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

I think all of us in Baltimore would not be surprised to see this kind of fuckery unfold.

It would be brutal if we got by far the lowest in the 95 corridor from DC-Boston. I don’t think that’s happening though. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Down to 34 at home in union bridge

39 here in asbury park

5 degrees colder down at home than here currently

Our office is in Neptune, crazy stuff coming for them.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, ravensrule said:

It would be brutal if we got by far the lowest in the 95 corridor from DC-Boston. I don’t think that’s happening though. 

That norlun is the piece of this I trust the least. Screw it I'm rooting for the NAM triple phaser, lol

[wasnow215]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

norlun trough doing what it also does... shifting east

You can't be a play by play guy and be this negative. Deep breaths haha

[WxUSAF]

Temp down near freezing. Can’t hurt. I feel weirdly zen about this storm, maybe I’m channeling @Bob Chillin my middle age. Let’s see what happens!

[Mail Man]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Our office is in Neptune, crazy stuff coming for them.

Indeed I'm about 25 minutes from that area.

[ThePhotoGuy]

Governor Moore Declares State of Preparedness Ahead of Winter Weather System

https://news.maryland.gov/mdem/2026/02/21/governor-moore-declares-state-of-preparedness-ahead-of-winter-weather-system/

[Terpeast]

36/31, ticking down

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Lol, now DC gets more than Baltimore. @Maestrobjwais going to jump.

You just admitted it would be brutal, lol You know, that doesn't bother me as much as the whole setup between norlun and coastal. Unless that norlun keeps trending east of course 

[hsq]

32.2/31.9

really dropping tonight

[wasnow215]

Just now, ThePhotoGuy said:

Governor Moore Declares State of Preparedness Ahead of Winter Weather System

https://news.maryland.gov/mdem/2026/02/21/governor-moore-declares-state-of-preparedness-ahead-of-winter-weather-system/

Only in 2026! I think we should declare a state of confusion!

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Gfs shifted that norlun east every run over the last 6 runs, while keeping the ccb and slp largely the same. Interesting

How far east can the norlun go?

[North Balti Zen]

Down to 33 in fallston

[Interstate]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

How far east can the norlun go?

It is going to be pushed west... when the coastal low tucks more and rakes baltimore

[jayyy]

Our office is in Neptune, crazy stuff coming for them.

So, so excited for this one. I think we’ll do quite well at home too, but I’ve seen this type of storm unfold far too many times back in my NY days to not chase up this way. Looking like ground zero for QPF

[Terpeast]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

How far east can the norlun go?

I think there’s a limit to how far east it’ll go as the sfc low track is pretty much locked in +/- 30 miles, and most models have had the norlun from HGR - W loudoun - Fauquier though it shifted east by maybe 10-20 miles on 00z. I don’t think it’ll shift further east by more than 10-20 miles, and certainly not to bmore unless the storm actually changes track

[nw baltimore wx]

33 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

While we're waiting for the gfs, I had to work all day and missed the 18z euro runs.  Did the click west in 12z continue in 18z?  Yes, I could go look but I want to just sit, sip my whiskey, and chill.

It actually got better!  Enjoy your whiskey!

[jayyy]

How far east can the norlun go?

If the norlun is over Baltimore, we’ve got a much larger problem. Would likely mean the storm is way east offshore