2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[psuhoffman]

SREF has been predicting the next run pretty well recently. 9z moved west 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Hrr is a blizzard!

12" here

Stalls snowing well into Monday

Pna? 

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

We're just not north enough for them to fully develop unless you're east and NE.

You guys both know better.

This isn’t a Miller B - not in any meaningful way. Every storm that pops a coastal isn’t a Miller B. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Pna? 

Guess the super warm temps yesterday and high of 50 today isn't going to matter much.. I'd much rather it snow than be right lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Guess the super warm temps yesterday and high of 50 today isn't going to matter much.. I'd much rather it snow than be right lol

[psuhoffman]

It’s super early but NAM is more negative and deeper right from the jump. Might be about to do a thing. 

[clskinsfan]

FV3 really likes those of us in the 81 corridor. 4 inches by midday tomorrow. Before the storm really gets going. We need to maximize that initial slug out this way. 

[DDweatherman]

I don’t hate what the Nam is doing through 27 vs 6z

[87storms]

Reverse psychology aside, I actually like where I’m at from a temps and upslope/easterly flow perspective for the sake of potential upside. Just like in basketball, the pivot is key.

[DDweatherman]

Like this run for everyone through h30, but the 95 folks are going to really like it. Heavy snow west of the bay. 

[Amped]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I don’t hate what the Nam is doing through 27 vs 6z

Surface low is way north. 

[baltosquid]

H5 looks like it is much more like 00z again. Surface reflects that and is closer to that result through 30.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Like this run for everyone through h30, but the 95 folks are going to really like it. Heavy snow west of the bay. 

32/32 during it.  That would up the ante for us if it’s right

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LP08 said:

32/32 during it.  That would up the ante for us if it’s right

Definitely not ignoring nam’s thermals. Heavy qpf this run also can’t hurt temps. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, LP08 said:

32/32 during it.  That would up the ante for us if it’s right

Gives us a chance 

[Amped]

Nam did some wonky stuff with the lead wave 6z back to its normal crazy stuff this run.

EDIT: Snow all the way down to Charlottesville at 7pm tomorrow.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Big shift! CCB action for most of our sub during the afternoon. 

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

You guys both know better.

This isn’t a Miller B - not in any meaningful way. Every storm that pops a coastal isn’t a Miller B. 

Is this because of the lack of upper flow energy? The distinction at times seems arbitrary. 

[Solution Man]

Good stuff right at sunset at 36

[baltosquid]

Center of the h5 low is more southwest than both 06z and 00z. Not by a ton but it doesn’t take much to get us a better result.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 3K NAM is west with this run.  However, way too warm everywhere during the day for much accumulation except maybe on grass/mulch.

[SnowDreamer]

Methinks we’re gunna like the 12k NAM. The SLP gets pulled straight West nearly to the mouth of the Chesapeake between hours 30-33. 

[Scraff]

I love good NAMing in the morning.

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Big shift! CCB action for most of our sub during the afternoon. 

W surface temps above 32 during the afternoon.....thats going to struggle to accumulate 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Good stuff right at sunset at 36

Hr 36 is a beaut Clark. Wide qpf field far s & w. 

[MillvilleWx]

22 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Yall are blind. The hrrr was awful.

It's the HRRR at range, so take it with a grain of salt, but to say it's awful was not even remotely true for our areas of AA Co. That was an onslaught. 

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, snowfan said:

W surface temps above 32 during the afternoon.....thats going to struggle to accumulate 

Dynamic cooling man! If we get ++snow falling i like our chances to accumulate even during the day

[psuhoffman]

[Solution Man]

Still smoking at 39

[mitchnick]

Love this 500mb wind map off Nam