2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Solution Man]

Ukie coming over, even has the ccb this time

[Jake Wx]

ukie for sure a better run

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Still plenty of time for another west shift to get the western burbs in the goods! (I can’t sleep…)

Let's go for broke. 12"+ east of I-81. Just do it. Go out with a bang. 

[baltosquid]

Ukie is still the warmest surface but it is way better than 18z. Give it another nudge and I think it would stop raining so much.

[Chris78]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Let's go for broke. 12"+ east of I-81. Just do it. Go out with a bang. 

I like your thinking 

[Snowman.]

UKIE looks much closer to the GFS and its wet.. still keep us mostly rain though

[Terpeast]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Let's go for broke. 12"+ east of I-81. Just do it. Go out with a bang. 

I’m in. Let’s do this!

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still plenty of time for another west shift to get the western burbs in the goods! (I can’t sleep…)

are you not worried that almost all the precip the GFS gives us is before 8pm?

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Ukie looks more amped. Let's see if it finally beats the temps it has been doomsaying about.

Temps unchanged, lol But that low? Tucky tucky! Would love for this to be a Euro preview--however I'm not sure if the whole preview thing is still a thing.

[Nomz]

UKIE has gone fishing. It's so far from consensus at this point that I'd ignore it.

[AlexD1990]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That includes you my friend  

Yeah I edited i thought east was west lol

[baltosquid]

[nj2va]

Just now, Snowman. said:

UKIE looks much closer to the GFS and its wet.. still keep us mostly rain though

I ignore the UKIE for thermals…well actually I ignore the UKIE in most regards, but good to see it move to the GFS.

[AlexD1990]

I can't remember the last time we saw the modeling break to the GFS like this. Absolutely amazing to see.

 

 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I ignore the UKIE for thermals…well actually I ignore the UKIE in most regards, but good to see it move to the GFS.

Totally makes sense. It is a positive step regardless.

[Jake Wx]

whats going on here ?

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Along and east of I-95 will need to watch this very closely. This is giving shades of some of the monsters of the past for east of the fall line. I feel really good if I’m along the west shore of the Bay and points east. 

[SnowDreamer]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Ukie is still the warmest surface but it is way better than 18z. Give it another nudge and I think it would stop raining so much.

Somebody who knows more about p-type outputs can expand/correct me, but there’s something funky about how pivotal and UKMET are interacting here. 
 

Here’s a sounding from 21Z in DC that looks a lot like snow to me, but the p-type map has it (and the next frame) as rain. 

[AU74]

13 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

February 11th 1983

Remember it well. After about 2' fell, I hiked several miles down New Hampshire Ave. from Colesville to White Oak, picked up a case of beer at Giant, and continued several more miles carrying the case to a friends apt. off Adelphi Rd.

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said:

Somebody who knows more about p-type outputs can expand/correct me, but there’s something funky about how pivotal and UKMET are interacting here. 
 

Here’s a sounding from 21Z in DC that looks a lot like snow to me, but the p-type map has it (and the next frame) as rain. <snip>

That would be +RASN

[TJ3]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I wasn't here at that time but the P-day blizzard of 79 was epic.

True. Nothing has compared to it since. 

[Eskimo Joe]

00z GEFS mean snow is 6"-10" east of US 15.

[wasnow215]

I was in Western Atlantic Co NJ in '78, '79, '83, NYC Blizz of '96 and back in SJ PD2 in '03. All epic

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

That's a big shift west!!!

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Somebody who knows more about p-type outputs can expand/correct me, but there’s something funky about how pivotal and UKMET are interacting here. 
 

Here’s a sounding from 21Z in DC that looks a lot like snow to me, but the p-type map has it (and the next frame) as rain. 

The surface is 36, so it’s falling as snow and probably 50/50 mix of snow/rain at the surface. The model is outputting it as rain in reflectivity probably bc the surface temp being 36

[CAPE]

Damn

[gopper]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

now this is a map worth showing!  my all time favorite with absolutely unbelievable rates in Baltimore!!

[AlexD1990]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Can we make the dark blue part bigger this time? 

[AlexD1990]

Just now, CAPE said:

Damn

Wow. What's 50th percentile look like?

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Damn

surely there are a couple members that death band DC