Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[SnowenOutThere]

For the record we've now blown by the previous most daily posts count for all previous threads this winter. 

[Jake Wx]

New 00z NBM PARA 

[Kevin Reilly]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And now these mfers gave us free shots.  I told them i need to be coherent for the GFS pbp. The stare was as blank as an untitled document in Word.  

If you came dressed like Bethoven with the OMG Folks Avatar look they would know what your talking about pbp gfs.

[weathercoins]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

New 00z NBM PARA 

Where do I sign 

[bncho]

NAM looks better so far

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

For the record we've now blown by the previous most daily posts count for all previous threads this winter. 

Thread would be/will be a disaster with posts lamenting about white rain and warm temps Sunday afternoon. 

[wxmvpete]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

#HoCoBullseye

Worth noting this is an experimental product that is based off the WPC's 61 member Super Ensemble. It is a tool to gauge the the potential for a warning level event. No one actively adjusts these up or down to create a forecast. It is a tool, just like so many others to use. It is also worth mentioning this product is not using new EPS data yet. The screen shot here was the most recent run after 21Z. The latest update should be posted within the next half hour or so.

[LP08]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Thread would be/will be a disaster with posts lamenting about white rain and warm temps Sunday afternoon. 

Can’t wait for the “I’m at 42° at 3 pm posts”

[bncho]

SS looks more amped on the NAM

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

You're in a better spot than I am...at least you don't have to make the call to cancel before any potential event happens.

When we get 37”, I’ll be stuck at home until after my scheduled presentation on Wednesday.

[Nomz]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

We saw it once before.  A long time ago. 

 

 

[IronTy]

Bwahaha I take back everything bad I've ever said about AI. 

[wxmvpete]

3 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

Worth noting this is an experimental product that is based off the WPC's 61 member Super Ensemble. It is a tool to gauge the the potential for a warning level event. No one actively adjusts these up or down to create a forecast. It is a tool, just like so many others to use. It is also worth mentioning this product is not using new EPS data yet. The screen shot here was the most recent run after 21Z. The latest update should be posted within the next half hour or so.

The WSO is actively used to determine the need for watches across the CONUS. Obviously if the probabilities continue to go up, the more the WPC super ensembles would suggest the potential need for watches given the higher probabilistic odds for a warning-level event. But this is not the end-all-be-all for watch decision making.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z HRRR at HR 48 compared to 18Z GFS and 18Z EURO at 54.

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Can’t wait for the “I’m at 42° at 3 pm posts”

Don’t forget warm grounds, recently warmer temperatures, and the increased sun angle will cut these snow totals in half. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR at HR 48 compared to 18Z GFS and 18Z EURO at 54.

As you probably know, hrrr isn’t comparable with the globals because it isn’t a global model. But same goes for the nam, which we do pbp on anyway 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR at HR 48 compared to 18Z GFS and 18Z EURO at 54.

Is it good?  I’m pickled. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR at HR 48 compared to 18Z GFS and 18Z EURO at 54.

Why are you comparing hrrr at 48 to those? May as well compare hrrr at 48 to gfs at 384

[clueless]

9pm the new HH? JB Black. 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

As you probably know, hrrr isn’t comparable with the globals because it isn’t a global model. But same goes for the nam, which we do pbp on anyway 

I understand the HRRR is not reliable at HR 48, if ever, but seems to be showing an amped solution.

[caviman2201]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Don’t forget warm grounds, recently warmer temperatures, and the increased sun angle will cut these snow totals in half. 

latest AFD even talks about sun angle... we're cooked for sure

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

latest AFD even talks about sun angle... we're cooked for sure

The sun is pretty strong at night 

[ravensrule]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The sun is pretty strong at night 

Blinding. 

[IronTy]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The sun is pretty strong at night 

Reflection off the moon. Unless it's a New Moon, then we're in business.  

[LP08]

Sharper Trof and a little more stream interaction on the NAM through 39

[stormtracker]

Home...not even drunk.  NAM look shaper with the northern stream so far

[AdamHLG]

Reflection off the moon. Unless it's a New Moon, then we're in business.  

No new moon until March 18. But that’s the next storm. #1993vibes


.

[Jake Wx]

Moon angle might be deadly

[ThePhotoGuy]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I understand the HRRR is not reliable at HR 48, if ever, but seems to be showing an amped solution.

So that means the amped solutions are not reliable.  

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, AdamHLG said:

No new moon until March 18. But that’s the next storm. #1993vibes


.

GFS probably hasn't ingested the latest moon phase data.  Once it does....it's over.