Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[AlexD1990]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yall ready for the biggest cave in GFS history?  Bout to dig into some 90 minute Dogfish and some sushi and watch the modern day Hindenburg.  Not even reverse psychology can stop this beast

i can think of no better way to witness the incoming implosion. 

[Scraff]

Let’s fuckin do this! I hear TAPS playing in the background though. Not good. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I need someone to stop the slow bleed of the IVT northeast every damn run. Y’all are focused on the lost cause coastal but that IVT is realistically our only shot and has no one else noticed it’s slowly bleeding like 10-20 miles northeast every run!  If that keeps up it’s gonna end up congrats Philly or even NYC by the time this gets here. 

It’s been sitting basically over us for the last 24hrs haven’t seen that much of a move 

[psuhoffman]

Likely the meet in the middle with a 70/30 or 60/40 lean towards the other globals. Issue is that’s no good for us. A compromise is a miss. Just a closer miss. Could help the Delmarva. 

[AlexD1990]

the stupid mf'er is going to triple down and beat the Jan16' DGEX run that showed 50"

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I need someone to stop the slow bleed of the IVT northeast every damn run. Y’all are focused on the lost cause coastal but that IVT is realistically our only shot and has no one else noticed it’s slowly bleeding like 10-20 miles northeast every run!  If that keeps up it’s gonna end up congrats Philly or even NYC by the time this gets here. 

You're just mad the imaginary coastal doesn't jackpot your backyard! We southrons know how this is going to go, so we're focused on an all-time model yeeting of the (entire model suite) by GFS.  IDGAF about some IVT junk that drops 2" of slush that doesn't stick to roads here. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Interstate said:

You do not need reverse psychology... this is happening

What's the floor where we can say cave?  Because 12z was peak, it's not going to get better from there, obviously.  But losing say 5 or 6 inches wouldn't be a cave.   So, what's the line here?

[DDweatherman]

I actually disagree, not like the IVT has been going east every run on all models. the further west and south the low is and any capture also matters to the IVT depiction. 

[baltosquid]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I need someone to stop the slow bleed of the IVT northeast every damn run. Y’all are focused on the lost cause coastal but that IVT is realistically our only shot and has no one else noticed it’s slowly bleeding like 10-20 miles northeast every run!  If that keeps up it’s gonna end up congrats Philly or even NYC by the time this gets here. 

I mean the exact placement of the IVT is harder to parse… I think getting a better h5 pass and something a bit more amped are some clear trends to hope for. The GFS isn’t going to be right. We are not going to get crushed by a sub 980 over the Chesapeake. But a trend towards something less pathetic is good.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

What's the floor where we can say cave?  Because 12z was peak, it's not going to get better from there, obviously.  But losing say 5 or 6 inches wouldn't be a cave.   So, what's the line here?

No one breaks 18” or maybe 12?

[Interstate]

I whole bunch of downers in here... If it is not going to happen, then there is no need for you to be here.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

What's the floor where we can say cave?  Because 12z was peak, it's not going to get better from there, obviously.  But losing say 5 or 6 inches wouldn't be a cave.   So, what's the line here?

If it’s worse than 6z it’s a semi cave

[psuhoffman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s been sitting basically over us for the last 24hrs haven’t seen that much of a move 

It’s jumpy. But if you go back and put a line through the axis of the IVT 24 hours ago and average all the models together the mean was somewhere through west of DC up to like  Frederick. Remember we were east of the heaviest qpf. Now we’re on the western edge. 

[LeesburgWx]

I can’t believe we are all sitting here waiting for another 35 inches of digital snow

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

What's the floor where we can say cave?  Because 12z was peak, it's not going to get better from there, obviously.  But losing say 5 or 6 inches wouldn't be a cave.   So, what's the line here?

As long as the H5 stays similar... I am happy.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What's the floor where we can say cave?  Because 12z was peak, it's not going to get better from there, obviously.  But losing say 5 or 6 inches wouldn't be a cave.   So, what's the line here?

Over half, then we know

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Likely the meet in the middle with a 70/30 or 60/40 lean towards the other globals. Issue is that’s no good for us. A compromise is a miss. Just a closer miss. Could help the Delmarva. 

JB is going 6-12 for DC to Boston with pops of 18

[LP08]

Maybe the best HECS is the friends we made along the way.

 

 

 

-pna

[bncho]

It’s a runnin

[baltosquid]

The run has begun.

[Climate175]

Just now, bncho said:

It’s a runnin

144 people on standby lol. 

[Solution Man]

Won’t take long to know where it’s going

[SnowenOutThere]

Time to assemble the crew.

[LeesburgWx]

My God. Here we go. Buckle up!

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s jumpy. But if you go back and put a line through the axis of the IVT 24 hours ago and average all the models together the mean was somewhere through west of DC up to like  Frederick. Remember we were east of the heaviest qpf. Now we’re on the western edge. 

That’s when the models also had us in the coastal. 

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What's the floor where we can say cave?  Because 12z was peak, it's not going to get better from there, obviously.  But losing say 5 or 6 inches wouldn't be a cave.   So, what's the line here?

11"

[Duca892]

Will the GFS cave... lets roll

[Cobalt]

Ugh

[osfan24]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I need someone to stop the slow bleed of the IVT northeast every damn run. Y’all are focused on the lost cause coastal but that IVT is realistically our only shot and has no one else noticed it’s slowly bleeding like 10-20 miles northeast every run!  If that keeps up it’s gonna end up congrats Philly or even NYC by the time this gets here. 

Those are so hard for us to get down here and so hard to pin down ahead of time that I might think the fake GFS solution is more likely. It’s also not a lot of snow in marginal temps so meh. Big dog hunting all the time and especially in late February after a decade of nothing.

[Amped]

It's 'Party's Over' time