Kitz Craver Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Love it and these are my boys. That was a scary succession of posts… lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It is a slight tick se with QPF on the 12z GFS. Yet the AI version has the best look yet....definitely a good study at the end of the season with regards to the AI vs OG OP runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Love it and these are my boys. It was headed that way and it still found a way to curl in…we’ll see. We’re trending nw but would anyone honestly be surprised if the gfs makes the SE tick for a model compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Kitz Craver said: That was a scary succession of posts… lol Its a subtle cut back over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 CMC way better compared to 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 It actually shows rain on the Cape for a portion 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was just going on what I was told..... I know just having fun. I think more than a Messenger shuffle we as Tipper suggest tick NW and as you suggest no LBSW. I wish I lived on the EM coast for this one. Gusts to 70 I still have JUNO vibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It was headed that way and it still found a way to curl in…we’ll see. We’re trending nw but would anyone honestly be surprised if the gfs makes the SE tick for a model compromise? It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its a subtle cut back over the interior. You gotta love that run for YBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 GFS with the CTRV qpf shadow. Hopefully it's getting a bit too cute with the topography. I know it's too early to fret about such things, it's just always in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its a subtle cut back over the interior. Don’t worry there will be 2 or 3 20 burgers for you on the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. I don’t believe for a second the Euro is done coming NW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Feels like we’re maxing west trends currently. I’d fully expect a jog east. i think the Jan 22 references are legit. This obviously isn’t as potent of a system. However, that slowly faded SE over the last couple days. It was obviously an all time event here because we got in the deformation band, but that was originally modeled way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. I liked 06z (right) better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 80mb pressure gradient. This will be unforgettable for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. That assumes the Euro is locked in place. Not convinced of that. Not saying the shuffle won't happen, which is why we need as hard a NW trend as possible to give us room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 My guess is GEFS will either be similar or a bit better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t believe for a second the Euro is done coming NW Oh it will come nw no doubt but even 70/30 gfs/euro compromise still leaves alot of potential on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am not so sure I would classify this as a tick southeast. Obviously, looking at this face value that's the take, HOWEVER, that is also tied into where the GFS believes the brunt of the CCB will traverse and impact. So in this regard, the QPF isn't necessarily reflective of trends in storm track but trends in CCB (which we know models don't do great with until ~24hr or just inside). BUT...this does provide a very good proxy of what you can probably expect for max QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 My Cape friend in Falmouth is starting to get nervous a little bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I am not so sure I would classify this as a tick southeast. Obviously, looking at this face value that's the take, HOWEVER, that is also tied into where the GFS believes the brunt of the CCB will traverse and impact. So in this regard, the QPF isn't necessarily reflective of trends in storm track but trends in CCB (which we know models don't do great with until ~24hr or just inside). BUT...this does provide a very good proxy of what you can probably expect for max QPF Digging in....I see what some are saying, it is a hair N with the SLP....QPF distribution discrepancy is probably noise. GEFS will likely be better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: My Cape friend in Falmouth is starting to get nervous a little bit About? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: GFS with the CTRV qpf shadow. Hopefully it's getting a bit too cute with the topography. I know it's too early to fret about such things, it's just always in the back of my mind. I saw that earlier but didn't want to say anything.. I know all to well about that.. it still gives me nightmares thinking about how much that use to suck lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It actually shows rain on the Cape for a portion which model? I couldn't find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. What if the Euro comes NW and comps with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: GFS with the CTRV qpf shadow. Hopefully it's getting a bit too cute with the topography. I know it's too early to fret about such things, it's just always in the back of my mind. If we get a deep layer easterly fetch, that will happen....and east slopes of ORH will rival se MA for JP...especially with CJ capability reduced given decreased SST/land lapse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: About? Oh, IDK,,,living on the ocean with an 81mb PG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: It was headed that way and it still found a way to curl in…we’ll see. We’re trending nw but would anyone honestly be surprised if the gfs makes the SE tick for a model compromise? No would t be surprising but seems this might be headed nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What if the Euro comes NW and comps with the GFS They will both tick to each other, to some degree, is what I’m thinking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: GFS with the CTRV qpf shadow. Hopefully it's getting a bit too cute with the topography. I know it's too early to fret about such things, it's just always in the back of my mind. 6-8 would still be pretty good considering what's not happening today and didn't happen Wednesday. No one wants to see a deform band of 2-4/hr goodies parked overhead with awesome snow growth more than we do. We just have to pray. I'm sick of these messenger shuffles!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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